Another Try at the Legal Catalyst

[Putncalls]

admin Wrote:  I might have missed it in all the more personal to and fro, but what is actually the worst case scenario here, should InterOil lose the arbitrage case?

I have been trying to wrap my brain around the same question. It all revolves around price * volume. Each owner has to be paid their percentage of whatever gas travels to the big fossil in the sky.  If/is the worst case is that OSH will contract with IOC just as TOT did.? If that is the worst case. How can OSH offer the same things that TOT has agreed to in their contract with IOC?

[ArtM72]

I've always understood OSH has to match Total's offer. That means IOC LNG plant ownership in addition to all the resource payments. A match means an equivalent hence no impact positive or negative on IOC. The ownership issue aside, just how can OSH agree to be the operator ?

IOC's gas will always be more valuable with two LNG plants competing to process it.

[Putncalls]

I've always understood OSH has to match Total's offer. That means IOC LNG plant ownership in addition to all the resource payments. A match means an equivalent hence no impact positive or negative on IOC. The ownership issue aside, just how can OSH agree to be the operator ? IOC's gas will always be more valuable with two LNG plants competing to process it.

OSH would then have to be approved by the PNG DPE?  in order to be "equivalent"

If Total is the only loser and OSH is the only winner in the worst case, I guess this issue is NOT a catalyst.

What about them new holes?

There has to be a better reason as to why OSH is spending time and money on this....

[Tree]

It's likely simple.

If IOC was on verge of losing licenses

and those licence extensions were conditional on a partner transaction in PRL15

and that TOT PRL 15 transaction is deemed void

then it can be argued that IOC's licenses in PRL15 and beyond have expired

and are not extendedable due to failure of closed transaction prior to deadline

Then, IOC has no licenses.

[jft310]

The PRL 15 leases were not at risk. The area outside PRL 15 was at risk. Thus they drilled the wells they did

[ArtM72]

It's likely simple.

If IOC was on verge of losing licenses

and those licence extensions were conditional on a partner transaction in PRL15

and that TOT PRL 15 transaction is deemed void

then it can be argued that IOC's licenses in PRL15 and beyond have expired

and are not extendedable due to failure of closed transaction prior to deadline

Then, IOC has no licenses.

But IOC DOES have a deal one way or another.  If OSH can't get government approval for the transaction then its offer is not equivalent and Total remains in control.  The downside for IOC in all of this is project delay, which certainly is contrary to everyone's interests, including OSH's as either way they have a VERY significant interest in the E/A resource.

The bottom line seems certain to be the lawyers get to skim some cream chasing a legal theory destined to lose.  But, again, win or lose, IOC's deal remains, whoever is the second party.

[Libtardius Maximus]

It's likely simple.

If IOC was on verge of losing licenses

and those licence extensions were conditional on a partner transaction in PRL15

and that TOT PRL 15 transaction is deemed void

then it can be argued that IOC's licenses in PRL15 and beyond have expired

and are not extendedable due to failure of closed transaction prior to deadline

Then, IOC has no licenses.

To quote a famous movie via the lips of Fredo Antar...I didn't know it until just now, it was Barzini all along.

[CAC]

[quote='Tree' pid='47875' dateline='1406719238']

It's likely simple.

If IOC was on verge of losing licenses

and those licence extensions were conditional on a partner transaction in PRL15

and that TOT PRL 15 transaction is deemed void

then it can be argued that IOC's licenses in PRL15 and beyond have expired

and are not extendedable due to failure of closed transaction prior to deadline

Then, IOC has no licenses.

But IOC DOES have a deal one way or another.  If OSH can't get government approval for the transaction then its offer is not equivalent and Total remains in control.  The downside for IOC in all of this is project delay, which certainly is contrary to everyone's interests, including OSH's as either way they have a VERY significant interest in the E/A resource.

The bottom line seems certain to be the lawyers get to skim some cream chasing a legal theory destined to lose.  But, again, win or lose, IOC's deal remains, whoever is the second party.

*********

Not to mention that PNG would likely be disinclined to want the licenses pulled even if TREE's theory was legally viable.  My sense is that PNG is more likely to be  looking for development as soon as possible rather than wanting to "start over".

[jft310]

There is no way to take over the discovered assets this is a British Comminwealth country with laws like in the US.
Per O'neil they want this developed ASAP . To bad Phil didn't listen closer to the request for a Super Major but alas with Somare healthy it might have worked . This is certainly more certain even if it takes longer.

[Tree]

The PRL 15 leases were not at risk. The area outside PRL 15 was at risk. Thus they drilled the wells they did

jft-

ioc is operating on a 5 yr old project agreement from 2009. This PA was threatened to be cancelled by the png govt due to IOC lack of progress in monetizing EA   IOC also needs pipeline licenses and PDL for prl15 development. Don't summarily dismiss pngs legal/political ability to replace IOC in these licenses with an upgrade industry partner of their choosing.