Posts: 1,112
Threads: 88
Joined: Feb 2012
Reputation:
109
Since we are waiting until Monday for the hopeful news I figured I would throw out a question posted by Itinvet17 on yahoo. Any thoughts?
"These have become more relevant questions. Now the question is: when we add the T2 resource in the coming weeks and months, does that not appriximately double the NAV if its as large as speculated? At $2 per mcf on a SD, does $500 become the target for the value of the resource?"
Posts: 890
Threads: 95
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
117
Ebster, please see the "Gobsmacked!" section of SHU...
If it helps monetization phase #1, I will be happy.
Posts: 169
Threads: 16
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
15
RayJay's current NAV estimate (not $80 target price on the stock) is $107. That is based on the lowest of the three GLJ estimates and using $1 per mcf. In December, RJ said that at $2 per mcf, their NAV estimate would go to around $180 (don't remember exact number).
If one uses the mid-range GLJ estimate, the NAV estimate at $2 goes well over $200. If T-2 doubles the amount of the resource, the NAV estimate is well over $400 with the mid-range estimate and may be $500. Even if one uses RJ's conservative low-range estimate and $1/mcf price, the NAV would approach $200 if T-2 doubles the resource.
Stocks like IOC will likely continue to trade at a discount to the NAV until production.
These NAV estimates assign zero value to our other targeted drilling sites. Then, when we realize that we will eventually be selling much of the gas at north of $10/mcf with a margin of probably around $6 or $7...the math gets rather gobsmacking.
Posts: 169
Threads: 16
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
15
Not me, Ebster. I only post here at the virtual Spinnaker. I did notice I had been copied. Have no idea who HB is.
By the way, on a different topic, American Funds has listed their top ten for 2/29. Due to the price drop in Feb we slipped from #1 in the SmallCap World Fund, but still in top ten. Looks to me like they just held the same number of shares.
Posts: 1,232
Threads: 204
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
584
Pretty funny! Herr_Basel is Swissfinancier’s imposter. And does a pretty good imitation.
Posts: 1,112
Threads: 88
Joined: Feb 2012
Reputation:
109
I only asked because your post seemed to be word for word what his was posted on yazzoooo MB.
Posts: 169
Threads: 16
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
15
Mine was posted 9 minutes before his. I did notice he changed the word, "gobsmacking". Evidently, they do not speak Tree in his country.
It does get confusing when there are so many imposters and even imposters have imposters.
Posts: 308
Threads: 31
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
16
Hi ebster , with the sale being at 2,3 - 2,5 (my guess) we should see 250, market will react very strongly to reach that due to squeeze, the real gain will come after a stock split, T2 and Whale (Napanapa) will see us (adjusted) at 500 plus
so
a SD/Operator/farm out ..... 165 plus ,,,a squeeze....180 / 200, a split 3:1 Well updates and HOA (25B) becoming binding, further drilling .... 500
The consortium (Japex/Mitsui/Kogas/Petrobras/COP and or Shell with EWC and Horizon and in a later stage SHI/Flex will change into a production Holding on production IOC will assimilate at 1000