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Hession traded a certain price for PRL 15 gas for uncapped upside. Mr Market wants certainty. Uncapped upside means uncertainty . With prior mgt Super Statements which didn't materialize IOC became a show me stock . Hession did himself no favors with his 60-90 days estimated drill times.
Some say the reservoir was deeper than expected and the seal thicker than expected . Which has caused the delay in results .
Then we have the Sept 13th deadline now passed for its 2 cents and it's causal delay .
Measured over time the short count is way down so many shorts think the worst must be over or why cover?
My point is congrads to JDEO for seeing through all the noise , reading the Bernstein report and putting his money on the line !yes measured over time this is all noise to those that believe in the asset.
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It certainly appears that Bernstein's $60 is seen as the floor based on Beveridge's calc of OSH's buy-in and assuming 7 Ts. As gas is proven up that $/mcfe will be used as a yardstick of a base value. When other events happen pps will be derisked. Smart to be accumulating as long as it fits your risk tolerance.
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I wonder how many IOC investors, having long recognized its value and potential, long ago made their last purchase due to simple financial prudence. Only so many eggs in one basket. Cuban's observations stated very clearly most analysts don't know what they are investing in. Given that we can expect few in the market really understand the IOC story.
All that said, per the Cuban thesis, leads to low volume and low prices. Prudence dictates I buy no more. Nothing is happening to attract the ignorant investor (or analyst ) who trade on momentum. Hence low volume and low price.
We need new well data and some sort of (non thermal) spark to get things going again.
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Agree also Art, but new buyers are expected from Asia going forward and they will start accumulating once things start happening. All will take time as new management executes.
While we wait I might suggest a read of the book Cuban mentions in his blog; The Number. It gives a good understanding on how things work on Wall Street. Understanding these things will help you be a better investor/trader.
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Worth the read. You'll understand that the SEC is toothless and pretty much always has been. That unless you understand accounting and the history of how it has failed overall in judging the financial worth of a public company (hard for me to say since I am a CPA, though in industry, not public). How by and large most analysts do little real analysis and are spoon-fed what companies want them to "know". How the focus on quarterly earnings and beating The Number has historically not served investors well. Etc etc etc. It clears away a lot of the smoke and mirrors and unveils some real truths about Wall Street.
Complaining to the SEC about things historically goes nowhere except for short periods after an Enron or something like that happens. Using charts to try and predict a stock's movements is as good as trying to predict long term weather.
Thanks for that link Kommon. Again, while we wait for some things to happen the book is really a worthwhile read.
