When was Mkt. right?

[Tree]

The GLJ #s for E/A still stand, don't they?

TOT bought in based on a smaller T count, OSH publicly accepts a smaller count as well.

Both TOT/OSH resign there is likely enough gas for 2 more trains.

9TCF stood at pps of $106 and stand at $49.

Is the market more wrong/right at $106 or right/wrong at $49?

Or is market right somewhere in between?

4-5 yr. build ahead, and that's after re-cert in 2015.

We trade today at prices based on 'possible' 1 or 2 trains years away with 'possible' enough gas from PRL 15.

We won't know PRL15 breadth for 12+ mos.

Those other 3 wells are independent of PRL15 and bear upon further growth/farm-ins/feed-stock sales.

Re-cert we await.

[jft310]

Right on trees are!

[SamAdams]

The GLJ #s don't stand, nor do GC.  We get a new set with this recert process.  That doesn't mean the GLJ estimates will ultimately be proven right, but they are not part of the recert calculation.  So without any side bets, its all on recert wells, new appraisal estimates to support LNG trains.  Much riskier than simply taking old numbers as a given.  Throw in bad energy, tape, lack of mgmt credibility to date etc etc = $48ish.

[Putncalls]

If any of these exploration wells are successful, the risk to the downside on the GLJ report is probably minimal.

[trans]

If any of these exploration wells are successful, the risk to the downside on the GLJ report is probably minimal.

It's less than minimal.  Suppose Total payment next year on certification is $2.5 billion.   IOC market cap right now is below that.  Plus all other holdings.   The stock is a steal right here!!  Any downside is dumb and likely a big recovery into next year.   imo........trans......its stupid cheap

[trans]

On top of that, IOC has shorts all over it trying to keep it down or push it lower.

[ebster123]

The GLJ #s for E/A still stand, don't they?

TOT bought in based on a smaller T count, OSH publicly accepts a smaller count as well.

Both TOT/OSH resign there is likely enough gas for 2 more trains.

9TCF stood at pps of $106 and stand at $49.

Is the market more wrong/right at $106 or right/wrong at $49?

Or is market right somewhere in between?

4-5 yr. build ahead, and that's after re-cert in 2015.

We trade today at prices based on 'possible' 1 or 2 trains years away with 'possible' enough gas from PRL 15.

We won't know PRL15 breadth for 12+ mos.

Those other 3 wells are independent of PRL15 and bear upon further growth/farm-ins/feed-stock sales.

Re-cert we await.

Tree it has been a while but glad to see you back steady

[Spartina]

Second that Eb.

[SamAdams]

The GLJ #s don't stand, nor do GC.  We get a new set with this recert process.  That doesn't mean the GLJ estimates will ultimately be proven right, but they are not part of the recert calculation.  So without any side bets, its all on recert wells, new appraisal estimates to support LNG trains.  Much riskier than simply taking old numbers as a given.  Throw in bad energy, tape, lack of mgmt credibility to date etc etc = $48ish.

Meant to post that It doesn't mean GLJ ultimately not proven right....

[ArtM72]

It would be nice to know what GLJ's model anticipated for the A4 and A5 wells in terms of net pay depth and porosity. When (if?) that data comes out knowing what to expect would put this crew ahead of the game. Pet? Anybody?