New Update from Bernstein

[Getitrt2]

"...Although this is a major source of uncertainty for investors, the downside for InterOil seems limited given that Oil Search will have to match the Total deal. Indeed, if the commercial synergies are as favorable as Oil Search believe there could be upside in the case of an Oil Search win."

The above makes no sense.

If there is truly upside for IOC with an OSH arbitration win then wouldn't we demand IOC to negotiate for better terms with OSH and then drop arbitration defense?

It cannot be true that their is no downside for IOC with upside only with an OSH win.  

LT it is clearly beneficial for IOC/Shareholders to have TOT as a partner, competetive bidder, for future development of future IOC resources.  

I agree with you Tree, and I don't think our contractual obligations to Total, legally or morally, would allow us to negotiate with OSH for a different deal.

[2126]

"InterOil plan to acquire high resolution gravity data across the basin and 500km of additional seismic data over the next 12 months which will enable high grading ofthe prospect inventory for future drilling beyond 2015." [source: p. 11 of new Bernstein update of 11/11/14]

This should be money well spent.

[DixieDog1]

Hey DixDog, you don't have to proof read everything before plugging in some headlines here.

Please feel free to do a minor dumpling...

Sorry, Monday Night Football and sleep took precedent over my reading through the whole report.  Glad to see a pdf of the report has been posted.

[2126]

A few nice items of interest:
1. Bernstein estimates of drilling dates:
1Q15: Antelope 5 &6
2Q15: Wahoo 1 (redrill) & Triceratops 3
3Q15: Antelope Deep
[source: p. 13, Bernstein update 11/11/14]

2. "What is interesting about Raptor is that it opens up a new play trend to the south of Elk-Antelope and suggests the White Tail trend in between is also
prospective." [p. 13]

3. Bobcat: "We would expect logging results before end of November."

[sageo]

Gator - Really appreciate the pdf you made available ! The new seismics can sure get the old ticker going a little faster. One of the quotes from the report,"this implies higher in-place volumes".....willl   be fantastic if that turns out to be the case. Can't wait to see where the top of the reservoir comes in at Ant 4. Hopefully, exciting times ahead. hagd

[calaban48]

Sing along to the “Ghostbusters” theme music: “If there’s something strange in your PNG, who ya gonna call? AB Bernstein! … “I ain’t afraid of no Shorts!” That is a thorough and glowing assessment of IOC. Thanks, Gator.

[jft310]

My recap of Bernstein Page 1-govt anxious for development because of 2017 elections. Antelope LNG will happen, next major LNG development on PNG . IOC has 38 percent more seismics on Antelope fields more confidant on higher resource estimate. Page 2-arbitration issue clear by end of the year , IOC continues to High Grade MGT. Page 3-exploration upside more significant than investors realize because of orubadi seal Raptor testing for flows, bobcat drilling drilling in reservoir logging results end on Nov, Wahoo completed next year, Antelope Deep subject to JV approval Page 5-land ownership - head count very low vs Highlands Page 7-govt needs jobs LNG provides Page 8-expect midpoint for certification 8 T's , need p-1 number for sanction , appraisal drilling at Antelope should be sufficient Page 9- antelope per new seismics appears to extend further to south Page 10- orubadi seal is thick , impermeable make it special seals in hydrocarbons Page 11- exploration looks "creamy" more positive results to come , more seismics in 2015 Page 12- reefs provide 25 x the assets of non reefs , thus the need for more seismics for reef definition Page 13-wahoo results in 2015 Page 14- antelope deep can be 3 T's Page 16- if no agreements can still have synergies like Egypt and Tribidad Page 17- domestic Market Obligations and tax changes are factored in Page 19- if 8 T's certified can buy IOC today for a 40 percent discount to Total and OSH paid price , OSH paid $72 share equivalent

[Gator]

InterOil’s Antelope May Be Next Major LNG PNG Project: Bernstein 2014-11-11 12:59:13.384 GMT By Arie Shapira Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge “incrementally positive” w/ higher conviction that Antelope will reach Final Investment Decision before 2018.

* Cites meetings w/ IOC, govt officials, partners, PNG specialists

* Bernstein rates IOC outperform w/ PT $90 and Oil Search outperform w/ PT A$11

* IOC has 6 buys, 0 holds or sells w/ PT $77: Bloomberg

* Oil Search has 12 buys, 5 holds, 2 sells w/ avg PT A$10.18

* NOTE: IOC reports 3Q earnings Nov. 14 pre-mkt

* NOTE: Aug. 14, Bernstein said XOM, TOT, Woodside and Oil Search are potential bidders for IOC

[Palm]

"Page 19- if 8 T's certified can buy IOC tomato a 40 percent discount to Total and OSH paid price ,
OSH paid $72 share equivalent"

IOC producing tomatoes now for cash flow lost by selling refinery? Good idea.

[jft310]

Luv Apple self completing not
Thanks , now corrected