Technical Analysis

[petrengr1]

Optimistic view. A triple bottom is better than a double bottom. Hopefully the triple bottom is in and it will not fall lower. Comments from the experts?

[TomCrooz]

Optimistic view. A triple bottom is better than a double bottom. Hopefully the triple bottom is in and it will not fall lower. Comments from the experts?

Actually Pet, if we get a key reversal in and around the 43.50 area, it would be a quadruple bottom and very positive.  If you look at the last 3- 1/7/14(low 43.92), 10/15/14( low 43.25), 12/16/14( low 43.66), you see the same thing......a downtrend that hits support and then a strong reversal the same day to close positive.  I would feel very good it we had the strong reversal today to close positive( Croozian Reversal).  If we close below say 43....look out below with a further drop of 10-20% in very short order( 7-10 days)

[trans]

If this will help some......I agree with Tom, this is fourth trip down to 43-44 area and is a good sign with support right below ioc, that it stands a good chance of a successful test here.  Just remember Edson Gould's old sayin three times is good, but look out for a fourth......meaning he felt it may happen and if it does it is likely the last trip down.  Also I subscribe to the three gap theory, meaning a gap lower (or higher the opposite) is moving towards exhaustion, two gaps lower is even better,  and almost never do we get three gaps lower, which is taken as total exhaustion.   Today is second gap down, another very good sign imo with the support right below us.

Last good sign is my short term strength rating which is usually quite good for trading bottoms, is at a very high 260, with 230-280 good market trading lows, reliability 80%+.

Next thing,  TLT Bonds is at overbought extreme coinciding with dollar extreme overbought also,  These are the antithesis of oil (and energy).....so what i am trying to say is nothing is perfect, but the ioc situation sure looks like things are lining up very well here......trans

One caveat,   watch out for an intraday spike seeming below support, only to recover back into a trading range.  this could be a fakeout move

[petrengr1]

Tom/Trans- Thanks for your comments. I guess we didn't get the Croozian reversal but at least it was a reversal and it didn't close below 43. Maybe tomorrow.

[Putncalls]

My viewpoint on the value of a share versus the market's PPS is so far off that maybe I need an analyst!

[admin]

Pretty big volume here already, I'll leave it to the experts to provide some interpretation, just noticing..

[TomCrooz]

Good day for that Croozian reversal. New lows, now for the strong bounce to close positive for the day. A man can wish.

[Gator]

"Pretty big volume here already, I'll leave it to the experts to provide some interpretation, just noticing.."

Not that I am an expert, but with the recent block trade of 550,000 shares, a large (formerly) un-traded chunk of stock is now in the hands of flippers. The buyers of that block know nothing about the story of InterOil. They are typical syndicate and secondary buyers that trade whatever they buy within a few days. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. The IOC block was a loser for them. They have either sold or will sell soon and move to the next name. The volume should be up as the shares move hands.

[Getitrt2]

Looks like perhaps they got it low enough to move a 200,000 share plus block at 2:06, and hopefully that clears the decks enough for some recovery. What a bargain here!!! Apparently Bernstein Research would agree: "InterOil is the E & P company to watch for 2015".

[TomCrooz]

Optimistic view. A triple bottom is better than a double bottom. Hopefully the triple bottom is in and it will not fall lower. Comments from the experts?

Actually Pet, if we get a key reversal in and around the 43.50 area, it would be a quadruple bottom and very positive.  If you look at the last 3- 1/7/14(low 43.92), 10/15/14( low 43.25), 12/16/14( low 43.66), you see the same thing......a downtrend that hits support and then a strong reversal the same day to close positive.  I would feel very good it we had the strong reversal today to close positive( Croozian Reversal).  If we close below say 43....look out below with a further drop of 10-20% in very short order( 7-10 days)

If this will help some......I agree with Tom, this is fourth trip down to 43-44 area and is a good sign with support right below ioc, that it stands a good chance of a successful test here.  Just remember Edson Gould's old sayin three times is good, but look out for a fourth......meaning he felt it may happen and if it does it is likely the last trip down.  Also I subscribe to the three gap theory, meaning a gap lower (or higher the opposite) is moving towards exhaustion, two gaps lower is even better,  and almost never do we get three gaps lower, which is taken as total exhaustion.   Today is second gap down, another very good sign imo with the support right below us.

Last good sign is my short term strength rating which is usually quite good for trading bottoms, is at a very high 260, with 230-280 good market trading lows, reliability 80%+.

Next thing,  TLT Bonds is at overbought extreme coinciding with dollar extreme overbought also,  These are the antithesis of oil (and energy).....so what i am trying to say is nothing is perfect, but the ioc situation sure looks like things are lining up very well here......trans

One caveat,   watch out for an intraday spike seeming below support, only to recover back into a trading range.  this could be a fakeout move

-8.67% fall in 3 trading days after close below 43.  I am going to go with 38 ( 12% fall after breaking support) in the next day or 2 as the first attempt at reversal