Unmet LNG Demand vs Yazoo Geniuses

[Tree]

The geniuses on Yazoo have pegged Phil as greedy, hubristic and in over his head. They'd have you believe that Phil could even screw up a deal with Shell.....and no one else will enter into a deal with him!! LNG Macro dictates success for IOC. Only question remaining is who and how much. I hope some kool-aid drinker at the AGM demands to be told 'who' and how much'!! If management cared about our feelings they would break CA's and answer these tough questions!!!!!
I really, really really hope those geniuses invest their $ where their mouths are.
Huh, trust Yazoo geniuses or RC/WF/Cap Res????? That's a real toughie.


...."Unmet demand in the 2018-2020 timeframe, when these projects are targeting startup, is projected to be between 65 and 80 million tonnes, with the majority of this in premium markets."....

[Palm]

Tree, be logical. If a deal were close at hand we all would know about it; both ubers and bashers. It's always been that way. Everyone knew that the deal with Flex was coming right? Well, no; no one did. And more recently everyone knew about the PRE deal right? I mean the pps and options were screaming about it. Wait, no one knew about that either. So their last couple of deals came out of left field, those sneaky buzzsterds!! How dare they not leak stuff to us ubers especially! But we ubers know this time don't we, or maybe the bashers do. Certainly Mr Spiekermann knows the exact details because he is so well connected that he doesn't have to talk to management AT ALL because they are liars and deceivers. But he DOES have a direct 100% connection and whatever it is it must be very recent info for him to show up on the Monday of OE week trumpeting all of what the ubers don't and can't know. I've concluded he must be right, so I'm expected a buyout at $75/share, or a max $1.00/mcf based on half of what everyone else estimates is down there. And both deals can only be with Shell. So it's up to IOC to decide. Sell the whole company for $75/share or so or sell EA using only the GCA estimate and no allowance for anything above that. This all because Phil is such an idiot that he scared all the others away to the point that his last ditch chance is to fly to Thailand for a quick R&R to clear his head before he decides which Shell offer to take. Maybe he won't blow this one. Fat chance!

[Tree]

Gee Palmer, according to the Yazoo Geniuses the following is true:

1) The fact that Duma surely appears to have been bribed to flip from being an EWC advocate and FLNG proponent for operations in Gulf Province to IOC/EWC/Flex adversary is somehow management's fault?? The Gulf LNG scheme was never a doomed or stoopid idea as the geniuses claim, a bribe caused a changed course.

2) IOC looks to be headed to more LNG quicker and a larger stake sale than IOC had schemed prior to Duma's bribe. Nothing wrong with more monetization quicker is there?

3) Geniuses lament that IOC hadn't sold their deals a couple of years ago into a crappy LNG market?? Tough sell here geniuses.

4) No bidding war for IOC's assets, resultant $/Mcf will be disappointing. Yeah right!

5) JKM has a bid and IOC is stonewalling them!! Yeah right. How about XOM as operator with JKM and a deal for $5-$6/M for dried gas sold to their growing PNG LNG plant that has not enough gas???

6) Damn the CA's Management should answer the hard questions from irrelevant retail shareholders!! HoHoHo to that too. Psssssss this story has a happy ending and no effort will be made to pump pps just as no effort has been made to pump pps in the past couple of years.

[Tree]

.......And another thing!! IOC/EWC Philippine import deal was a stoopid idea too. Who would mess around trying to develop an LNG market in Philippines??

"LNG player Royal Dutch Shell confirmed its plans to invest over US $1.6 billion for the development of an LNG import terminal in the Philippines, the U.K. Foreign Office said in a release.
Shell is already the largest foreign investor in the Philippines (US $5 billion), the U.K. Foreign Office said.
President Benigno Aquino III of the Philippines visited the UK as an official guest of the British Government 5-6th June."

[Palm]

Tree,
1) Sure it's his fault! Had he sold into the depressed LNG market back in 2009 that you mention in #3, EWC and Flex would have NEVER been in the picture and the Duma bribe would never have been necessary. You just don't get it do you? Why did EWC even enter the picture anyway? Maybe it was due to looking to the future. With Australia building all the LNG capacity due to the CSG finds the ONLY way to compete would be based on proximity and price. Kavo created the opportunity by demanding that all processing take place in Gulf Province. He made the deal with EWI/EWC for the petroleum park and IOC saw two opportunities; avoid civil unrest that XOM was already seeing in the HIghlands due to perceived unfair treatment of LOs and avoid the costs of the undersea pipeline. Also the labor constraints would make doing a stick-built plant tough because of both costs and scarcity of skilled labor with all that was scheduled for Australia. So, build modular elsewhere and bring it on. Even Duma and Somare loved it; until beachdwellers invaded.

2) Sure; the economy started to turn, then the Japanese disaster occurred, and the ME chaos began. Now what we have is more valuable by far. Glad they didn't sell in 2009!

3) 'Nuff said there

4) Why would there be more than 1 party involved in bidding. Makes no sense based on the above!

5) Sure, would't you stonewall too?! JKM is trying to lowball and steal the whole thing. They have all the NG and LNG sourced for decades! No demand and no competition. They MUST be offering $0.25/mcf.

6) CAs aren't work the stone they are carved in. No one obeys them and all but the most unnecessary information is leaked regularly. The ONLY people that get the real info are the hedge funds trying to drive IOC to zero. Then they disperse that info to all who will listen to the truth who can then jump on message boards the week of OE to drive pps down so GS can close pps on Friday right where it makes the most money for them. And $60 does not seem to be enough; there's a bit more to get at $57.50.

We are doomed; the truth of the hedge funds has won out. Glad I sold at the highs. Hohoho