Impressions

[calvin grad]

Reading the recent posts I get the impression that the new calculation is certification payment will be around 8.5T.  8.5 T after  we prove larger area, fabulous porosity and connectivity. Is the market getting that impression also? Is 8.5T the new calculation?

[Putncalls]

8.5Ts? Does that include Elk and condensate?

[Bevo]

My impression was 10.9tcfge OGIP without Elk. Is it OGIP what we get paid on?

thanks if someone can clear this up for me.

[jft310]

I think that a 2 train LNG build with Total same size as PNGLNG would make many quite happy right now . As Palm has said just get it done , some monetization is better than no monetization. I would love the 12 T's many think is there but the 7 T area gets us 2 trains and it's a start .

[Palm]

My impression was 10.9tcfge OGIP without Elk. Is it OGIP what we get paid on?

thanks if someone can clear this up for me.

We get paid based on estimated recovery, not OGIP.  People who were using OGIP were wrong as in the instructions to the evaluation firms in the SPA it clearly states that they are to provide the Recoverable estimate to be used in Certification, Wildcard Bonus, etc., etc.

[calvin grad]

 JFT says 7T gets us there but much less cash for our participation payment. How much is that going to be?   It seems they can read the difference in pressures and determine the volume. If that is true what is the point of drilling another well and proving more area?

[jft310]

I also went back and read GLG which uses recoverable gas. Palm is correct. Elk was .5 T's . Condensates .82 T's , condensates were not mentioned in the analyst measured gas estimates . In out???
They say size matters for design purposes . I guess that means pipe size and pipe routes????I assume Interoil wants more wells and a higher T count to pay a higher percentage of the LNG build without an equity raise or with minimum borrowing . Why not declare the field a fricking GIANT and build away .

[Palm]

At this point it doesn't matter with Ant 4 just getting going again and Ant 6 not being spud for a while. Mgmt pushed earliest expected Cert. back to end of 2Q 2016 from the 2nd YE 2015. Market has reacted along with more oil price slump, and we really have no catalysts coming for a good long time. Can't call for Cert until at least Ant 6 is done.

Blood will run for while.

[sageo]

At this point it doesn't matter with Ant 4 just getting going again and Ant 6 not being spud for a while. Mgmt pushed earliest expected Cert. back to end of 2Q 2016 from the 2nd YE 2015. Market has reacted along with more oil price slump, and we really have no catalysts coming for a good long time. Can't call for Cert until at least Ant 6 is done. Blood will run for while.

Palm - Amen to that....."Blood will run for a while" .  As an aside,I was just reading an article from VIC dated 8/14/2012 by 'hawkeye901' .on Interoil . Price per share - 85.00 . Market Cap --4,100 (billion) . I used to believe that 2 things were certain....death and taxes ...I now know it is 3 things ! Third is now "change" . [ and what a change since then (3 years),pps is bad but more discoveries is good .]  Looking for a good tourniguet to stop the bleeding in 2016.....(maybe Raptor or an Ant 7 ???) . Again,my old stand-by...."we shall see". Best to you.

[jft310]

Might get color on Ant 4 results from Oil Search in early Sept . They are required to tell .
Triceratops has had cores pulled should get hopefully results of those cores .
They are planning for drilling using the new rig 116 when do we hear about that . Oil Search might be the one to tell us where???
This tie into oil prices is not sensical . But.....
Appears we get the next GLJ in Feb before the final certification .
Finding or proving more gas doesn't appear to be a stock price mover. The payment is a mover . FiD is a mover . A signed LNG contract is a mover . A new well at a raptor if successful if it lead to a new deal would be a mover .