TOT Slides

[Getitrt2]

Puts is correct but that all changes next year . A payment next year of @ $2 Billion changes everything . UBS's work shows a stock price in the $90 with that size payment .

That's not all.  The work of Goldman Sachs that got IOC on their Conviction List Buy rating projects with a bullish case of 9 Tcf and even less payment a price of $95 to $105!!!  There is a great deal of confidence in a resource size of at least that much.

[jft310]

Show me stock , we may be holding 4 aces but until we lay them down on the table show both certification we don't get any respect .

[Palm]

Puts is correct but that all changes next year . A payment next year of @ $2 Billion changes everything . UBS's work shows a stock price in the $90 with that size payment .

A lot of very positive things need to happen to get to some of those lofty valuations at certification. People just aren't buying resource stocks; especially those with no cash flow or dividends. The bigs are trying to defend their pps with cost cutting and preserving dividends. Oil prices need to start a sustained move back up before there is much interest from the market. Mgmt knows this and is talking primarily to hedge fund people it appears as it's hard for the others to find interested clients to buy right now.

As always, we wait.

[jft310]

Interoil is a complicated sorry that requires work . Gotta sweat for your equity . The Total payment is not tied to oil or ng prices but MR Market treats us if the payment is tied and then there's this size of the asset issue and thus the payment size is what is holding us back .That's the major problem per multiple analyst's the payment size and they believe it gets resolved and the stock price rises . See their target prices and reasons why. They also believe we build a 2 train plant with differing completion dates .

[Palm]

Yep in times like this thequestion is "What's in your pocket today?" We can only say that the check will be in the mail at some point. And market today discounts that to near nada.

[Stavros]

<< JFT: Interoil is a complicated sorry that requires work . Gotta sweat for your equity . The Total payment is not tied to oil or lng prices but MR Market treats us if the payment is tied and then there's this size of the asset issue and thus the payment size is what is holding us back .That's the major problem per multiple analyst's the payment size and they believe it gets resolved and the stock price rises . See their target prices and reasons why. They also believe we build a 2 train plant with differing completion dates . >>

"Differing completion dates" referred to by owners and analysts refers to staggering the completions and startups by several months (no more than 12 months). They use this staggered approach if they think it will be difficult to get sufficient labor at the site to construct two trains at the same time.

If you recall, the PNG LNG Trains were slightly staggered but only a few months apart.

In the case of TOTAL's Yamal project, there will be 3 trains (each 5.5 million tons LNG) being built in the frozen-beyond-all-belief Yamal Peninsula in Siberia. Those will be staggered by years.

So if TOTAL staggers Papua LNG, they may do something like the following:

1. Order two of each piece of equipment (compressors, turbines, heat exchangers, distillation columns, pumps, etc) at the same time to get a discount. Have them fabricated and delivered to the site about 8 months apart
2. Begin the site work on Train 1 - clearing, leveling, piling, roads, etc
3. Move the site crews to Train 2 when Train 1 site is finished and repeat. Site crews are disbanded when Train 2 is completed
4. Begin the civil works on Train 1 - foundations, etc
5. Move the civil works crews to Train 2 when Train 1 is completed
6. etc

Personally, I don't think they'll stagger the Papua LNG Trains by more than a few months.
UNLESS ... perhaps they copy the PNG LNG design and build Train 1 of Papua LNG AT THE SAME TIME as they build PNG LNG Train 3???

[jft310]

Stavros comments about the Soc Gen questioner are fascinating and hopefully we have merit in an earlier monetization.

[Getitrt2]

Puts is correct but that all changes next year . A payment next year of @ $2 Billion changes everything . UBS's work shows a stock price in the $90 with that size payment .

A lot of very positive things need to happen to get to some of those lofty valuations at certification. People just aren't buying resource stocks; especially those with no cash flow or dividends. The bigs are trying to defend their pps with cost cutting and preserving dividends. Oil prices need to start a sustained move back up before there is much interest from the market. Mgmt knows this and is talking primarily to hedge fund people it appears as it's hard for the others to find interested clients to buy right now.

As always, we wait.

Mutual fund managers can also buy without finding interested clients to buy themselves.  Personally, I can find clients to do so, and other such people should do so also.

[jft310]

Based on analyst price targets Interoil could rise 50-100 percent in the next 12 months . That's a compelling story with analyst reports available here on these pages . If we certify more than 10 T 's the company is stupid cheap today . At 6 T's we are still stupid cheap just not as much upside .

[Getitrt2]

Personally, I got nothing substantial or beneficial I didn't already know from Stavros' misinterpretation of jft's post. Yesterday, on the other hand, we all lost substantial beneficial and extremely interesting information posted by Dr. Wu in a sincere and gracious effort to inform and help us, after deletion as a result of Stavros' totally uninformed and unjustified attack on Dr. Wu and his sources. I, for one, strongly request that he apologize to Dr. Wu and promise to never launch such charges and attacks in the future, regardless of whether he thinks such is justified. He probably has already reduced the future availability to us of such beneficial information and clarification, which I strongly resent.

Ironically, for the information of others here not aware of it, before Dr. Wu's post was deleted, a Yazoo basher brought it over to use in his criticism and bashing of the Company. That's right, it's available on Yazoo! I'll probably get it back over here the next chance I get if someone else doesn't first, but be my guest. In a way I'm inclined not to out of respect for Dr. Wu's decision to delete it prompted by Stavros, but it's ridiculous to be on Yazoo and not here. For my part, fwiw, thank you, Dr. Wu; and I say neither you nor your source(s) did anything wrong with the information, clarification, and "color" you posted. Also, I know very little about chemical engineering, Stavros, but I know a great deal about the investment management and financial services business, as well as accounting, and a lot more about the oil and gas industry than I did a decade ago.