'sageo' pid='64805' datel Wrote:
Guys and/or gals - For our " money sharp" people on our board . It was stated in the 3Q report that we had $ 473 mil as of that date. Last Monday approx. 70 mil gone.....leaves $ 403.. Banks still hold $300 mil of that ....leaves 103 mil. If my understanding is correct,approx. 60 mil of that is receivables....leaves 43 mil. Oct. & part of Nov. expenses.....a few more million. By the end of the year will we be calling the banks? [ As I'm sure you can tell by now,numbers aren't my long suit . sageo....."just an old geo"![<img src=]( "Huh")
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Sageo,
This was my calc on 11/13 that was posted:
"Note in their PR they talk about cash and cash equivalents ($118) plus trade receivable ($54.6) plus the LOC ($300) give them $473 million of liquidity. They then jump right to (this is all not in the order of the PR) they will spend less than $200 million in 2016 and then mention expenditures for 2016 will be $175-$195 million. Why the mention of the $200 million for 2016 and then the $175-$195 million? Because they know the financials will be scrubbed like I and others do. Here's the $200 million:
1. You start with the $473 million available INCLUDING the $55 million in trade receivables
2. The following is in the financial footnotes on page 7, footnote 3 Financial Risk- Financial liabilities Accounts Payable and accrued liabilities- $180 million The 2.75% Convertible Notes liability- $69.5 million These total $250 million rounded
3. $473 less $250 = $223 million
4. The $23 million is likely their estimate for how the 4th qtr will play out; we still have that to go in the numbers and hopefully that's all we will have for a loss. Or maybe the rest of the way down to $175-$195 million is their padding for what more the 4th Q will bring.
The reason the $180 million must be used here for payables is that it must be paid out of the currently available $473 million. And any further expenditures must come out of Certification proceeds, another sell down or a cash raise. They have no production assets/operations to generate other cash.
So, that's my take in looking at the numbers, and it explains most everything they said in the PR and CC. They start the PR talking about the exploration and sprinkle in the still-possible Ant 7 and what it could bring. They continue to talk about the possible Tri selldown. They must.
This is why it's imperative (IMO) to FIRST read the finacials; all of them including the MDA. This is their official filing and are their "sworn to" statements. Get a picture of the story in your own head. And then read/listen to what mgmt says. You'll then understand why they say what they say better. And by doing this it is strictly looking at things from a factual/numbers standpoint. It's how IOC's mgmt looks at it and how their CFO explains it to mgmt. They then anticipate what the hotspots will be which they must address. Then tell the story you want to tell in your way. Things get easier for them when cash comes and stays; like where OSH is. It's Business 101."
