Getitrt2' He is NOT just "expressing his opinions", which everyone knows ad nauseum. He is continuously bashing the Company and repeating the SAME INCOMPLETE AND DISTORTED claims and criticisms over and over. "Expected to be" is just that, not a promise, and he KNOWS the very significant effect the unavoidable rig problems at Ant 4 had on the schedule. Furthermore, finding much better than expected resource results from the appraisal wells, rather than as expected or worse, to such an extent that it justifies a sidetrack at Ant 4 and possibly an Ant 7 to confirm even much greater resources, is a HUGE positive for the Company, not a negative. He also should know that Hession's achievement of new financing and launch of the exploration program that saved the licenses in the Fall of 2013 was what drove the stock up to the level it reached pre-deal announcement he says he is measuring the decline from now, and is ignoring the misunderstanding and short attack that followed that and the huge effect of the collapse in oil and gas prices since then, and blaming it all on Hession. I am confident the Company and shareholders are much better off by having had him replace Mulacek. I don't think I have ever known of anyone so irrationally stuck on or getting so much apparent enjoyment from "beating a dead horse", especially if it is supposedly contrary to his own interest, and not supportive of it, in the nature of the kind of activity IOC shorts engaged in for years, effective or not. I for one am damn tired of it, and damn tired of his wasting our time with it. I can find plenty of that on Yazoo, and I am beginning to think that is where Gator and his repetitive whining and abuse belong.
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The reason I would not suspect Gator of being a short is because I am not a short...and I feel the exact same way he does. At some point, the excuse-making should be set-aside. At some point, a pass-fail system (based only on share price) is appropriate. The question isn't "what good does criticism do?"...the question is "has IOC management passed or failed?"
12-05-2015, 04:03 AM (This post was last modified: 12-05-2015, 04:05 AM by Getitrt2.)
My confidence is related to the appraisal and certification process, although I am admittedly anxious to see it appropriately completed, not to the timing of FID. I do not think there is any required FID schedule tied to certification payment.
When it comes to marketing and financing, however, I sure am glad to have Total leading the JV.
How have any of your 7000+ posts help? What are your motives? Are you a paid pumper or just blind to the fact that this has been an epic failure on the part of current management to do the one and only thing that matters to this company and shareholders: GET PAID FOR THE ASSETS! With you (and management) it’s always perfect and someone else’s fault when thing go wrong. The board of directors should find a new CEO that can complete the task, but they won’t because they get free stock for doing nothing.
1) Unfounded accusations that someone is short or a paid pumper don't help, quite the contrary.
2) Yea, get paid for their assets. Easier said than done. The company entered into an agreement with Total, and although I don't know whether there are any binding legal arguments time wise, but it certainly looks like the soft energy markets have robbed at least some sense of urgency. I'm not close enough to the situation, but an informed guess would be that there is a bit of give and take here, with Antelope 7 used as a handy valve to give Total some breeding space. This is speculation on my side, but I'm not the only one who has thought along these lines.
Alternatively, what do you suggest they do about it? A new CEO would do what exactly? I'm not sure there is any alternative to the present course, but I would like to be enlightened here.
Unfounded accusations of shorting & option covering are, however, both helpful and encouraged, apparently.
"And maybe someday we will find , that it wasn't really wasted time"
This is an old thought/thread, but, at what point does TOTAL have enough information that their own internal reservoir engineers can calculate the approximate size (TCFe) of PRL15? When the TOTAL accountants do the simple math that calculates the amount TOTAL will need to pay InterOil, it seems that TOTAL management is going to be in a great position (for them!) -- that is, they will be able to buy the whole company for essentially the same cash that is due to InterOil at certification !!!!
That is crazy!!! None of the other prospects or 30% of the LNG plant (yet to be FID'd or built) have any value !?!? All I can say is this is a clear example why a well-funded major oil company (like TOTAL) will be able to make a killing when the cycle turns.
Unfounded accusations of shorting & option covering are, however, both helpful and encouraged, apparently.
Not by me. I would be VERY surprised if you are a short, FWIW. I also understand your frustration, even if some others do not. My question is simply what do you suggest the company does about the situation? Bang their fist on the table at Total?
I also think, apart from the speculation I just offered, there are at least some valid reason for delays, like drilling mishaps, old rigs, etc. They had to drill to keep licenses.
Getitrt2' He is NOT just "expressing his opinions", which everyone knows ad nauseum. He is continuously bashing the Company and repeating the SAME INCOMPLETE AND DISTORTED claims and criticisms over and over. "Expected to be" is just that, not a promise, and he KNOWS the very significant effect the unavoidable rig problems at Ant 4 had on the schedule. Furthermore, finding much better than expected resource results from the appraisal wells, rather than as expected or worse, to such an extent that it justifies a sidetrack at Ant 4 and possibly an Ant 7 to confirm even much greater resources, is a HUGE positive for the Company, not a negative. He also should know that Hession's achievement of new financing and launch of the exploration program that saved the licenses in the Fall of 2013 was what drove the stock up to the level it reached pre-deal announcement he says he is measuring the decline from now, and is ignoring the misunderstanding and short attack that followed that and the huge effect of the collapse in oil and gas prices since then, and blaming it all on Hession. I am confident the Company and shareholders are much better off by having had him replace Mulacek. I don't think I have ever known of anyone so irrationally stuck on or getting so much apparent enjoyment from "beating a dead horse", especially if it is supposedly contrary to his own interest, and not supportive of it, in the nature of the kind of activity IOC shorts engaged in for years, effective or not. I for one am damn tired of it, and damn tired of his wasting our time with it. I can find plenty of that on Yazoo, and I am beginning to think that is where Gator and his repetitive whining and abuse belong.
********
The reason I would not suspect Gator of being a short is because I am not a short...and I feel the exact same way he does. At some point, the excuse-making should be set-aside. At some point, a pass-fail system (based only on share price) is appropriate. The question isn't "what good does criticism do?"...the question is "has IOC management passed or failed?"
I also have clients in IOC to be concerned about and am also extremely frustrated about the stock price and the situation; and I am not against "criticism" of the appropriate nature and amount. I am not actually accusing Gator of being a "short", but I cannot help wondering about and, as I said am damn tired of, the distorted loose-with-the-facts nature and the extent of his on-going repetitive negative commentary and rule-breaking whining. Perhaps for one thing we have different definitions of "excuses" vs. valid reasons. A CEO can certainly affect the stock price, but he cannot control it, especially in the short term. This is a long-term business reflecting huge effects from the industry environment, and I believe what is being accomplished by this management will have a huge positive effect on the stock price in the long term, and that we shall be seeing that in the coming year, which eight major investment firm analysts seem to believe as well. I think it's too early for a "pass/fail", but that time may come.
'johnwgrant' pid='65053' datel Wrote:This is an old thought/thread, but, at what point does TOTAL have enough information that their own internal reservoir engineers can calculate the approximate size (TCFe) of PRL15? When the TOTAL accountants do the simple math that calculates the amount TOTAL will need to pay InterOil, it seems that TOTAL management is going to be in a great position (for them!) -- that is, they will be able to buy the whole company for essentially the same cash that is due to InterOil at certification !!!! That is crazy!!! None of the other prospects or 30% of the LNG plant (yet to be FID'd or built) have any value !?!? All I can say is this is a clear example why a well-funded major oil company (like TOTAL) will be able to make a killing when the cycle turns.
With all due respect, this entire comment is not only "old" and repetitive, and previously addressed, but unbelievably ridiculous, imho.
The SPA contract appropriately requires INDEPENDENT calculation and certification, and Total is certainly NOT independent. Furthermore, such independent resource engineers are likely to require more factual and dependable information than an internal engineer making an estimate, before they sign their names to a certification reflecting their professional and legal responsibilities, thus part of the potential need for more drilling.
The idea/opinion that after certification Total "will be able to buy the whole company for essentially the same cash that is due to InterOil at certification" is just totally and absolutely WRONG!!! That is currently an unknown not reflected in the stock price, at least almost certainly not fully, but it is a legal liability of Total to IOC. If Total wants to buy IOC, they would have to offer a price that would cover 100% of that cash plus the value of all other assets of the Company less liabilities, including the interest in PRL 15 and Papua LNG, other discovered resources, prospective resources and related licenses, etc.
'johnwgrant' pid='65053' datel Wrote:This is an old thought/thread, but, at what point does TOTAL have enough information that their own internal reservoir engineers can calculate the approximate size (TCFe) of PRL15? When the TOTAL accountants do the simple math that calculates the amount TOTAL will need to pay InterOil, it seems that TOTAL management is going to be in a great position (for them!) -- that is, they will be able to buy the whole company for essentially the same cash that is due to InterOil at certification !!!! That is crazy!!! None of the other prospects or 30% of the LNG plant (yet to be FID'd or built) have any value !?!? All I can say is this is a clear example why a well-funded major oil company (like TOTAL) will be able to make a killing when the cycle turns.
John - Thanks for your post. You are 100% correct ! In the coming years,when our reserves( yes,they are called reserves by me and others),are taken out of the ground, Total "WILL make a killing" . We will probably get what "the little boy shot at". Hope I am still arond to see how this sad drama plays out. [ ....am just too old and stubborn to get out now]. Best to you .
In reality gentleman and possibly ladies it supposedly is one more year or less until the first pay day. So the transformational deal is going to take three years. In the scheme of the size of this reservoir and the millions it takes to determine the actual size may not be such a long time when we look back five years from now. As an impatient sometime whiner investor it is pretty much out of all of our hands. It is just a wait and see what your Board and professional managers operating the company do. If we don't like it we can 1. Get enough support in shares to take a stand and push the Board to do what???? (unlikely) . 2. Sell 3. Short 4. Take Sageo's position to stay around long enough to see how the drama plays out. That is what I have picked at least until Monday. Have a good weekend.
12-05-2015, 06:34 AM (This post was last modified: 12-05-2015, 06:36 AM by Gator.)
My question is simply what do you suggest the company does about the situation?
When a sports team consistently misses the playoffs, they fire the coach. When a company consistently misses the payoff, they should fire the CEO. Hession has lost all credibility with Wall Street. On March 17, 2015 InterOil published this timeline.
On May 12, 2015 they didn’t change any time table.
June 9, 2015 we hear for the first time about a 1 quarter delay.
August 13, 2015 the certification is now “mid-year” 2016 and Hession wouldn’t commit to June 2016.
November 13, 2015 InterOil is “Fully focused” on certification in 2016.
November 18, 2015 IOC said “The joint venture is also considering an additional appraisal well on the western flank of the Antelope field”
November 23, 2015 Oil Search also mentions Antelope 7 (proposed).
In the March presentation, InterOil states they were planning to drill as many as 8 wells in 2015 with 5 rigs. If they had the rigs and the money why are they so far behind? It has nothing to do with the price of oil, LNG or tea in China; Mismanagement.
"And maybe someday we will find , that it wasn't really wasted time"
