Two year anniversary

[sageo]

[quote='MartiniStocks9756' pid='65180' dateline='1449575412'] Stavros great post. Clear, concise and I agree that not releasing the pertinent material information to the shareholder is a management pattern that is very disturbing. What would be the reasons to hide any drilling or estimates on size of the giant at this point. To prevent takeover bids? If its a giant and they know it then the market needs to know it too. The company never seems to protect its share value. And Class Action suits could be the method to shake the tree as I have been hinting about it for awhile. Let's get their attention. Anyone know a good lawyer (LOL) ???? Seems we only have engineers. And finally shame on me for believing in the resource and believe despite misplays by management or not reading the market tea leaves that it all turns out alright. Gullible, bad investor for sure and whatever but time value of money has really killed any advantages here. Now it is a hope to escape semi-whole. [ quote

Martini - Good am to you. Loved your "anyone know a good lawyer (LOL) ???? " .[Seems we have a few on our board  (LOL). ]  As an aside,I never thought I would someday be praying for a lawyer,but recently we had a female lawyer pass away at an early age(from our local area). I had met her dad a few years ago ,and he was a giant among our local "legal eagles". When I read her obituary,I realized what a "first class lady" she must have been. I was amazed at all her accomplishments and to those who sought her help,she must have appeared to be an angel .

Since one of our beautiful grandaughters married an attorney a couple of years ago,I've had to revise my thinking somewhat. [ Sorry if I'm "rambling" on. From Dragnet......"just stick to the facts,m'am" ] To all our longs,hagd.

[Getitrt2]

Gator is so wrong about so much, partly related to many of the facts, and partly related to his angry, irrational, and biased choices about his repetitive distorted whining about the unchangeable past and the stock, and bashing of the Company and its management and stock, none of which is helpful for shareholders and some of which is probably damaging, it is pathetic. Some others have added to his excessive negativity and distortions, while perhaps adding some clarity in some areas. I have already, of course, commented on some of the claims and details over time, but will try to make some further limited comments that hopefully will be helpful and additive to positive contributions from Tree, Martini, jft, etc.

As already stated more than once, IOC did NOT sell or agree to sell more interest than it had, although obviously it intended to replace part of the interest "sold" with buyout from Pac LNG/IPI interests. I feel sure Hession had positive indications about that from those parties to do so on similar terms to those with Total, and publicly indicated that, but I do not believe he could have "nailed that down" or reached a legally binding deal on it before reaching a formal agreement with Total. Once OSH decided to go after that, rather than trying to negotiate later with Total for an interest, almost certainly with ulterior motives, and was willing to pay a higher price, with financing from the Government, I don't think there was anything Hession could do to stop it. Furthermore, I think it would have been against shareholder interests and stupid to try to outbid OSH, essentially bidding against himself/IOC, rather than modifying the deal with Total to reach the mutual ownership interests desired on the basis they had agreed to, and getting a better deal for IOC. To blame what happened with all that on Hession is ridiculous, imo.

I have stated numerous times that I think the primary cause of the problems and delays with appraisal was the problems and delays with drilling Ant 4 because of the bad rig they had to use, and the necessity or desirability of then bringing in another rig to drill a previously unplanned Ant 4 ST1, from which, however, the Company has achieved great results further increasing the apparent resources. I don't think they were included in the timelines above, but Ant 4 was spudded in September of 2014, as planned, and Ant 5 in December. Ant 5 drilling with a much more capable rig was completed in about three months, while Ant 4 after further "drilling difficulties" was suspended in May 2015 in formation dolomite short of the gas-water contact, with a replacement rig freed up not starting to drill the side track until August after Operator Total obtained government approval to re-enter the well. If they had been able to drill Ant 4 with similar rig equipment and personnel as with Ant 5, they would be in a very different situation now. I would like for someone to give me some details on how Hession could have anticipated and avoided all that.

On the other hand I feel sure the arbitration had at least some negative effect on the timelines. It made it uncertain whether Total would even be in the project and delayed their being named and becoming Operator. It required IOC and Total management time and additional cost for almost a year. It was all going on while IOC management was staffing up and pursuing rigs and other resources and planning and implementing by far the most extensive seismic and exploration and multi-PRL appraisal programs in the history of the Company. At the same time management was restructuring the Company and negotiated and closed the sale of the refinery and downstream businesses in June of 2014 for $526 million in what I consider a brilliant decision and action that enabled them to accomplish all they have and meet additional costs that arose, with Wahoo, other exploration drilling issues, Ant 4, the arbitration, etc., without drawing on the $300 million credit facility I don't think Mulacek could ever even have gotten, and left the Company in a much better financial position today for multiple reasons. A great deal of progress WAS made during the arbitration period.

Someone complained about the supposed lack of resource estimates from management. DUH! They have provided much more of that, with better seismic as well as drilling, on both discoveries and prospects, including Antelope South, than anyone ever before. In addition to multiple previous resource estimates on A/E, they have added a lot of color from appraisal drilling and estimated an additional 1 to 3 Tcfe that might be comfirmable from an Ant 7 requested, based on current information. It seems obvious to me why they would not offer more in their own E/A estimates, and specific "odds", with more drilling and testing and analysis to be done and with new determinative independent certifications to be done after appraisal program completion. Tell the market it's a "giant"? They HAVE, more than once, and said it keeps getting bigger! There ARE reasons to believe they may be able to start on an Ant 7 without waiting for completion of Ant 6, if that decision is made, including their expressed total focused priority on E/A appraisal now, other management comments, and the availability of HA Rig 116. I think IOC and Total management are in a much better position to make that decision than anyone else, here or elsewhere, but there are no guarantees, as all should know. If you can't stand the heat, the uncertainty on results or timewise, get the HELL out of the kitchen, as the MAN once said. That goes for oil and gas prices too, which I feel sure have had the biggest single effect on the stock price in the last year plus, including this week, and are totally out of any control by the CEO. I think they have done what they can by pointing out the non-effect on certification payments, the positive effects on costs, the outstanding competitiveness of the project, the favorable timing outlook for production regarding LNG supply and demand, etc.

Management has also invested significant efforts into developing relationships with investment firms and analysts all over the world, and I would say successfully. Then there is the work and progress with Total, with sites selected and being worked on, and the plans for BOD and FEED start in 2016.

Regarding concerns about marketing of the gas, I don't deny uncertainties there also, but my concerns are less with Total in the lead and the low project cost. Also, I think management's recent comments about the development of the relationship between PNG and Japan and Japan's comments about that and their future LNG strategy are extremely interesting and probably significant.

I think statements that with different management or incentives the certification payment could already be in the bank are not just false but absolutely absurd, and that speculation about some class action lawsuit is also absurd, with such idiocy being potentially detrimental to the stock as well. However, more rational heads are in control of the stock, and that will not happen based on current information and circumstances.

A great deal of frustration for everyone is understandable, given everything that has happened and the grossly undervalued stock, especially with the exaggerated effects of oil prices. However, repetitive on-going whining and distorted bashing of the Company and its management is unjustified and as I understand it in violation of the purpose and Rules of this Forum, and potentially damaging to the stock and all shareholders. I think many are also frustrated and fed up with that, and that if it continues after an appropriate warning, action should be taken to end it here. Criticism and opinions are fine to a point, but should be properly supported, and not in the form of an on-going unjustified one-sided negative whining campaign against the Company and its management. The focus should also be on the present and the future, not the mostly irrelevant past.

[admin]

However, repetitive on-going whining and distorted bashing of the Company and its management is unjustified and as I understand it in violation of the purpose and Rules of this Forum, and potentially damaging to the stock and all shareholders. I think many are also frustrated and fed up with that, and that if it continues after an appropriate warning, action should be taken to end it here.

Thanks for clearing stuff up. A few notes on my part, as I suppose this is directed at me.

1) This is a forum, that is, a place to exchange info and viewpoints. I believe (rightly or wrongly) Gator is in good faith when he posts the stuff he does. As stated earlier, I'm not a philosopher king in possession of all the facts, so I can't make out whether most of his claims (or yours, or anyone else's, for that matter) are true, which is why I didn't intervene.

Which is why l let it sort out by letting people post confronting viewpoints. Which is what a forum is for, perhaps. So I thank you Getit for taking up that cause in such a comprehensive manner.

2) I understand that quite a few are upset about the frequency and repetitiveness of his complaints and perhaps he can take that on board, but there is something to be said for not singling him out on this point either.

Hope that helps, or at least clarifies.

[ebster123]

However, repetitive on-going whining and distorted bashing of the Company and its management is unjustified and as I understand it in violation of the purpose and Rules of this Forum, and potentially damaging to the stock and all shareholders. I think many are also frustrated and fed up with that, and that if it continues after an appropriate warning, action should be taken to end it here.

Thanks for clearing stuff up. A few notes on my part, as I suppose this is directed at me.

1) This is a forum, that is, a place to exchange info and viewpoints. I believe (rightly or wrongly) Gator is in good faith when he posts the stuff he does. As stated earlier, I'm not a philosopher king in possession of all the facts, so I can't make out whether most of his claims (or yours, or anyone else's, for that matter) are true, which is why I didn't intervene.

Which is why l let it sort out by letting people post confronting viewpoints. Which is what a forum is for, perhaps. So I thank you Getit for taking up that cause in such a comprehensive manner.

2) I understand that quite a few are upset about the frequency and repetitiveness of his complaints and perhaps he can take that on board, but there is something to be said for not singling him out on this point either.

Hope that helps, or at least clarifies.

STP, I don't know how you can go after Gator for an accused one extreme (negative/short) without going after JFT or others for the same extreme (pumping/perceived excessive long).  MHO

[admin]

STP, I don't know how you can go after Gator for an accused one extreme (negative/short) without going after JFT or others for the same extreme (pumping/perceived excessive long).  MHO

What gives you the idea I "have gone after" Gator??

[ebster123]

I never said you "have gone after Gator" but I do believe others have. If you retread my post I did not say you have I asked how can you. That is in present or future tense. If I suspected you did I would have said how did you. However, the second part for you or others still stands. There seems to be a lot more tolerance for pumping than desention these days.

[MartiniStocks9756]

Gentleman and gentleladies.... Its okay to pump or short or whatever as long as you don't whine, pick on anyone personally or deliberately mislead etc. Getit has outlined his positions that anyone who is disappointed with management is not in agreement with him. He attributes much of management's problem to a bad rig at Ant 4. Many of the others and myself in this group find fault in management's lack of clarity, information, deciding nothing is material and non investment in the company among a host or litany of other things. JFT states the worst oil markets in a long time and other existential problems are part of his view of the problem. His critics do not like his consistent positive view and intimate knowledge because he makes the calls and contacts to gain insight.

Just face it the company is cursed. LOL... If it is not a rig, its the politicians, if not the politicians its the Saudi's messing up the oil market, if not the Saudi's its the lawyers who wrote the SPA and nobody can understand it or too many grey areas, or its Botton and OSH with the challenge and if it is not OSH its Chandler and if not Chandler its now Cohen and then Hession the evil CEO and his support of the sports team in PNG and finally one truth it is likely the damn computers that control the market and have no human feelings or logic just an algorithm to sell when certain things happen. What is coming next. Love to predict it but we are all frustrated because bottom line we want the PPS to be higher. Obviously we have to wait until certification which could be this year or next or FID which could be next year or thereafter and it all doesn't matter if OSH buys us but then Exxon could jump in along with Total and anyone else with I hope more than three billion to spare. Hope I captured it all. For the most part you all do a great job representing your positions. Getit I would love it if I ran for office and you were my campaign manager. Keep it up and most important when appropriate thanks to PET his posts help decipher the data when we get it of course. As SAGEO says GLTA!!!!!

[ebster123]

Gentleman and gentleladies.... Its okay to pump or short or whatever as long as you don't whine, pick on anyone personally or deliberately mislead etc. Getit has outlined his positions that anyone who is disappointed with management is not in agreement with him. He attributes much of management's problem to a bad rig at Ant 4. Many of the others and myself in this group find fault in management's lack of clarity, information, deciding nothing is material and non investment in the company among a host or litany of other things. JFT states the worst oil markets in a long time and other existential problems are part of his view of the problem. His critics do not like his consistent positive view and intimate knowledge because he makes the calls and contacts to gain insight. Just face it the company is cursed. LOL... If it is not a rig, its the politicians, if not the politicians its the Saudi's messing up the oil market, if not the Saudi's its the lawyers who wrote the SPA and nobody can understand it or too many grey areas, or its Botton and OSH with the challenge and if it is not OSH its Chandler and if not Chandler its now Cohen and then Hession the evil CEO and his support of the sports team in PNG and finally one truth it is likely the damn computers that control the market and have no human feelings or logic just an algorithm to sell when certain things happen. What is coming next. Love to predict it but we are all frustrated because bottom line we want the PPS to be higher. Obviously we have to wait until certification which could be this year or next or FID which could be next year or thereafter and it all doesn't matter if OSH buys us but then Exxon could jump in along with Total and anyone else with I hope more than three billion to spare. Hope I captured it all. For the most part you all do a great job representing your positions. Getit I would love it if I ran for office and you were my campaign manager. Keep it up and most important when appropriate thanks to PET his posts help decipher the data when we get it of course. As SAGEO says GLTA!!!!!

A very sound and accurate assessment.  Time will tell....  Thanks Martini

[Getitrt2]

However, repetitive on-going whining and distorted bashing of the Company and its management is unjustified and as I understand it in violation of the purpose and Rules of this Forum, and potentially damaging to the stock and all shareholders. I think many are also frustrated and fed up with that, and that if it continues after an appropriate warning, action should be taken to end it here.

Thanks for clearing stuff up. A few notes on my part, as I suppose this is directed at me.

1) This is a forum, that is, a place to exchange info and viewpoints. I believe (rightly or wrongly) Gator is in good faith when he posts the stuff he does. As stated earlier, I'm not a philosopher king in possession of all the facts, so I can't make out whether most of his claims (or yours, or anyone else's, for that matter) are true, which is why I didn't intervene.

Which is why l let it sort out by letting people post confronting viewpoints. Which is what a forum is for, perhaps. So I thank you Getit for taking up that cause in such a comprehensive manner.

2) I understand that quite a few are upset about the frequency and repetitiveness of his complaints and perhaps he can take that on board, but there is something to be said for not singling him out on this point either.

Hope that helps, or at least clarifies.

STP, I don't know how you can go after Gator for an accused one extreme (negative/short) without going after JFT or others for the same extreme (pumping/perceived excessive long).  MHO

jft may look for positive things and comments to post, which would seem natural for a believer and shareholder, but I do not believe his posts generally reflect the kind of distortions, bias in either direction toward management, and useless repetitiveness about the past (in the form of bashing) as found in many of Gator's postings.  Personally, I don't perceive the level of "pumping" from jft to match the level of bashing and rule-violating whining from Gator; and frequently jft is responding to other posts, whereas Gator is often initiating distorted, repetitive complaints and attacks.

[CAC]

GetIt -- jft may look for positive things and comments to post, which would seem natural for a believer and shareholder, but I do not believe his posts generally reflect the kind of distortions, bias in either direction toward management, and useless repetitiveness about the past (in the form of bashing) as found in many of Gator's postings.  Personally, I don't perceive the level of "pumping" from jft to match the level of bashing and rule-violating whining from Gator; and frequently jft is responding to other posts, whereas Gator is often initiating distorted, repetitive complaints and attacks.

*******

That is comical...