IOC IR On Today's Action

[Putncalls]

Hi  - I've not heard any such rumour. We are still on track to spud Antelope-6 before year end. Today was a tough day across E&Ps with Brent hitting new lows.



Best,



David



-----Original Message-----

From: 

Sent: Tuesday, 22 December, 2015 8:28 AM

To: David Wu

Subject:



Hello David,

Michael said he would be out of the office and that I should contact you. Could you tell me if there is another delay? There is a rumor that the stock slide on Monday was due to a new delay.

Thank you,

[MartiniStocks9756]

OK thanks for that Puts.... Good to know there is no rumor and spud date on time and just the good all slamming of the marketplace.

[ebster123]

Puts, thanks

[Stavros]

First, IOC is NOT an E&P Company, and should not be compared to that category of oil and gas companies. IOC's IR Department constantly invokes this fiction when challenged by shareholders. IOC dropped by 5+% while XOP dropped only 1%. XLE was up today, as was CHK.

Second, IOC continues to REFUSE to state how much gas they believe is in E/A. The market STILL assumes that there is 6.5 tcfe in-ground and that the Interim Resource Payment due from TOTAL will be US$353 Million. IOC Management and its IR Department have done absolutely NOTHING to refute the market's conclusions. AND ... we may not find out the Certification figures until 1Q2017.

Third, TOTAL is in total control of the story (or lack thereof) because they are themselves a company in deep donkey doo doo. The P/E ratio of their stock is 106.79 while that of XOM is 16.32. TOTAL earns $0.42 per share while XOM earns $4.73. TOTAL cannot fund their Dividend Payments if oil price stays low while they continue to invest. TOTAL simply decided many months ago not to spend ca$h money to develop the Papua LNG project until 2016 rolls around. Enough said on this subject and why TOTAL has slow-walked until now.

Fourth, IOC Management DOES NOT OWN ANY SHARES OF THE COMPANY so they don't give a flying $#!? whether the stock price drops into the TEEN$. Richard Chandler figured this out and exited stage left at $42+ per share. How did he figure this out? Perhaps he realized he was being lied to on the timelines.

So what's the story, Jerry?

Dr. Hession claims that the decisions to drill and drill some more will ultimately result in a much higher certification payment (perhaps quadruple) without jeopardizing the timeline for project FID and eventual startup/ production of LNG.

By having a much larger payment, IOC won't have to borrow any money to fund their 30% participation in the LNG project construction, which comes to a layout of about $1.5 Billion in cash.

No one in a position of Top Management will buy IOC shares while they try to implement this strategy because they know the trajectory of the PPS. Apparently Chris Finlayson and the rest of the BOD agree with this strategy; they too are waiting to buy shares.

IF it turns out IOC is correct, then it will be worth it for those who are shareholders at the end of 2016. IOC's PPS will rocket if they have $2.5 Billion in ca$h (from TOTAL as Interim Resource Payment) plus another $457 million (coming from TOTAL as FID Payment) plus a retained NET ownership of E/A on their Books of 3.4 tcfe.

We shareholders can't tell if that is a BIG IF or not? Will the certification indeed come in at 12+ tcfe instead of 6.5 tcfe? Is IOC GAMBLING or do they have a very good reason to expect this outcome?

The mumbo jumbo stated by IOC Management during CC's borders on what a third grader might say when questioned about his lack of fundamental mathematics knowledge - - -

Q: "What does one plus one equal, Johnny?"

A: "ERRRR .... That's a very good question Ms. Teacher. I'm not really sure about the answer, so I'll say this in response: We have a great third grade class here, and a great learning environment in your classroom, and a great team of classmates working hard to learn everything we possibly can when you teach us math. We'll continue to learn from you as we progress this school year, and maybe by the time we break for summer recess we'll be able to answer this difficult question you posed."


IF the wait ultimately results in a resource certification that is 5+ tcfe more than expected by the market, it means IOC gets $2.0+ Billion more than if E/A was certified at 6.5 tcfe.

For people who bought IOC shares at $60+ and had to sell (or decided to sell), the extended timeline has been an unmitigated disaster ... it has certainly been TRANSFORMATIONAL.

The issue is that IOC seemingly (and consistently and purposely) mislead the market about timelines for E/A drilling and ultimate certification. I don't buy into excuses that things happened that were unknown and out of IOC's control (perhaps they were indeed out of their control ... but NOT UNKNOWN).

IF IOC had told the truth to shareholders, I for one would have sold at $60 with the plan to buy shares back at $20 or below.

Remember a long time ago when the Citibank Anal-ist said IOC's timeline was rubbish? Someone apparently told him the truth!

I HOPE AND PRAY TO ALL WHO CAN INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME THAT THE CERTIFICATION IS 12+ tcfe, AND THAT IT COMES BEFORE THE END OF 2016.

Tell me ... why, as a shareholder, should I have to "hope and pray" that my investment was a good one?

Why should IOC shareholders have to end their posts by saying "GOOD LUCK TO LONGS"?

[Putncalls]

CLR was down 12% today. They are E+P.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CLR&ql=1

[Martinistocks]

Actually Stavros we should not have to hope and pray. We should expect the BOD and management have our backs while they run the company. I guess the PPS and the company are not always aligned since they do not control the market. But the market which includes the longs, the shorts, the computers, the rumors and insiders etc. has not liked our Exploration and Production company the past year. The Play is entering the third act and we would like to have a peak at the fourth act and get a happy ending. All of this whining would be unnecessary if the company would give us a few shreds of information in-between conference calls and the good Doctor and Chairman would invest a long with me a few shares. We all want to play nicely in the sandbox together.

[Getitrt2]

First, IOC is NOT an E&P Company, and should not be compared to that category of oil and gas companies. IOC's IR Department constantly invokes this fiction when challenged by shareholders. IOC dropped by 5+% while XOP dropped only 1%. XLE was up today, as was CHK. Second, IOC continues to REFUSE to state how much gas they believe is in E/A. The market STILL assumes that there is 6.5 tcfe in-ground and that the Interim Resource Payment due from TOTAL will be US$353 Million. IOC Management and its IR Department have done absolutely NOTHING to refute the market's conclusions. AND ... we may not find out the Certification figures until 1Q2017. Third, TOTAL is in total control of the story (or lack thereof) because they are themselves a company in deep donkey doo doo. The P/E ratio of their stock is 106.79 while that of XOM is 16.32. TOTAL earns $0.42 per share while XOM earns $4.73. TOTAL cannot fund their Dividend Payments if oil price stays low while they continue to invest. TOTAL simply decided many months ago not to spend ca$h money to develop the Papua LNG project until 2016 rolls around. Enough said on this subject and why TOTAL has slow-walked until now. Fourth, IOC Management DOES NOT OWN ANY SHARES OF THE COMPANY so they don't give a flying $#!? whether the stock price drops into the TEEN$. Richard Chandler figured this out and exited stage left at $42+ per share. How did he figure this out? Perhaps he realized he was being lied to on the timelines. So what's the story, Jerry? Dr. Hession claims that the decisions to drill and drill some more will ultimately result in a much higher certification payment (perhaps quadruple) without jeopardizing the timeline for project FID and eventual startup/ production of LNG. By having a much larger payment, IOC won't have to borrow any money to fund their 30% participation in the LNG project construction, which comes to a layout of about $1.5 Billion in cash. No one in a position of Top Management will buy IOC shares while they try to implement this strategy because they know the trajectory of the PPS. Apparently Chris Finlayson and the rest of the BOD agree with this strategy; they too are waiting to buy shares. IF it turns out IOC is correct, then it will be worth it for those who are shareholders at the end of 2016. IOC's PPS will rocket if they have $2.5 Billion in ca$h (from TOTAL as Interim Resource Payment) plus another $457 million (coming from TOTAL as FID Payment) plus a retained NET ownership of E/A on their Books of 3.4 tcfe. We shareholders can't tell if that is a BIG IF or not? Will the certification indeed come in at 12+ tcfe instead of 6.5 tcfe? Is IOC GAMBLING or do they have a very good reason to expect this outcome? The mumbo jumbo stated by IOC Management during CC's borders on what a third grader might say when questioned about his lack of fundamental mathematics knowledge - - - Q: "What does one plus one equal, Johnny?" A: "ERRRR .... That's a very good question Ms. Teacher. I'm not really sure about the answer, so I'll say this in response: We have a great third grade class here, and a great learning environment in your classroom, and a great team of classmates working hard to learn everything we possibly can when you teach us math. We'll continue to learn from you as we progress this school year, and maybe by the time we break for summer recess we'll be able to answer this difficult question you posed." IF the wait ultimately results in a resource certification that is 5+ tcfe more than expected by the market, it means IOC gets $2.0+ Billion more than if E/A was certified at 6.5 tcfe. For people who bought IOC shares at $60+ and had to sell (or decided to sell), the extended timeline has been an unmitigated disaster ... it has certainly been TRANSFORMATIONAL. The issue is that IOC seemingly (and consistently and purposely) mislead the market about timelines for E/A drilling and ultimate certification. I don't buy into excuses that things happened that were unknown and out of IOC's control (perhaps they were indeed out of their control ... but NOT UNKNOWN). IF IOC had told the truth to shareholders, I for one would have sold at $60 with the plan to buy shares back at $20 or below. Remember a long time ago when the Citibank Anal-ist said IOC's timeline was rubbish? Someone apparently told him the truth! I HOPE AND PRAY TO ALL WHO CAN INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME THAT THE CERTIFICATION IS 12+ tcfe, AND THAT IT COMES BEFORE THE END OF 2016. Tell me ... why, as a shareholder, should I have to "hope and pray" that my investment was a good one? Why should IOC shareholders have to end their posts by saying "GOOD LUCK TO LONGS"?

Where are you getting all this crap?

If IOC is not an E&P Company, what is it?  It Explores and appraises and has ownership in planned Production.  It is not a services company, or a refinery, or a pipeline company, or a retailer.  Morgan Stanley, Citi, Raymond James, etc. all classify it as an E&P company.  What the hell do YOU think it is, as if it mattered?

IOC and the JV are conducting a contractual appraisal to determine/confirm how much gas is in E/A, and it is incomplete.  I think it is appropriate they not express a premature opinion about what the final certified amount will be.  That is the purpose and job under the Contract of the two certifier firms to be averaged.  There are GLJ certified estimates and other estimates available on previous data, and IOC has indicated at every stage of appraisal and testing so far that it appears to be getting bigger, perhaps much bigger, a "GIANT".  I say the market does NOT STILL make the assumptions you say, although it may not give much value for more in the current environment until confirmed.  Investment firms in the market are not simply assuming your amount but using somewhat higher baseline amounts AND giving much higher potential amounts and per share values in the event of higher certifications.

Total's finances and Papua LNG?  WRONG AGAIN!  I don't know where the hell you are getting your information, or assumptions, but Total acted early and is in relatively very good condition, partly because of actions taken and partly because of the nature of their business.  Based on public information I see, their projected EPS for this year (2015) is $4.43 on a stock price of about $45, giving it a P/E ratio on that of only 10.2.  Their dividend payments are well funded and in no danger, and they DO AND WILL "continue to invest".  Your statements on their spending on Papua LNG are "simply" FALSE. They have been and still are "spending ca$h money" on appraisal of E/A and development of Papua LNG, mostly on personnel for the latter.  What evidence do you have that Total has "slow walked" all this?

I also say it is FALSE to say that IOC management "DOES NOT OWN ANY SHARES OF THE COMPANY".  Furthermore, what evidence do you have that management has "lied" about timelines, rather than being wrong about some of them, adjusting others for additional work, and making others?

I seriously doubt that top management "knows the trajectory of the PPS", at least not in the short to intermediate term.  If so, I doubt they would have bought any stock back.  Of course, as time passed, about anyone could make some reasonable assumptions about the direction of E&P stocks as long as oil prices continued collapsing.

Your comparison of cc's to third graders is not only inaccurate but ridiculous.

[jft310]

Frustration clouds the vision .

[freddiekingman]

Actually Stavros we should not have to hope and pray. We should expect the BOD and management have our backs while they run the company. I guess the PPS and the company are not always aligned since they do not control the market. But the market which includes the longs, the shorts, the computers, the rumors and insiders etc. has not liked our Exploration and Production company the past year. The Play is entering the third act and we would like to have a peak at the fourth act and get a happy ending. All of this whining would be unnecessary if the company would give us a few shreds of information in-between conference calls and the good Doctor and Chairman would invest a long with me a few shares. We all want to play nicely in the sandbox together.

Frustration clouds the vision .

@29 you must be blind

[Thylacine-2]

A brave/rash prediction. We are at the bottom. Good time to buy.