Stock Price Catalysts

[jft310]

My opinions below

1)Interoil is required to file a 2015 reservoir asset size report by March 31 for year end 2015 . Interoil has had considerable success in 2015 finding more dolomite . Estimates should rise . Historically report is made public mid Feb...

2)How many reservoir engineering firm estimates will be floated in 2016 Calender year for PRL-15. ???. How can GLJ continue to be the official Interoil engineering firm with OSH and PAC using GCA and NSAI?? More estimates creates confusion.

3) Antelope 6 should be at or near TD we should hear about that . Well will be tested with DST we should hear about that . Cores should be taken should hear in 6-8 weeks about those results

4)Further connectivity tests should be close to completion or completed by now . Should further validate reservoir connectivity .

5) Hession has clearly stated they are in discussions about a Total type deal for TBR. Will Hession collect on his BOD payday and sign an LNG deal to confirm TBR with a non Total????

6) Ant 7 to drill or not drill should be revealed post Ant 6 . Either way shareholders should benefit . Based on Total Super Speed drilling of Ant 6 .

7) Interoil has no debt unlike most others in the oil and gas biz . Hession states they can reduce expenditures to the point they can live off current cash without debt until Total payment receipt. If successful would demonstrate superior business management skills . A view of that on the year end report.

8) if others talk to IR or MGT encourage them to do a road show when the new information is received as stated above . The payment has no ties to oil prices and should be robust . If not 10 T's now then certainly 10 T's on the second go round .

Others may see things differently .

[Martinistocks]

The first stock price catalyst will be the bottoming of this general market along with the oil market finally getting to the bottom. It would also help as a catalyst if the computers start buying instead of selling. All of those issues would propel the general market higher but I do not think we are there yet and some experts are talking recession which will not do any of us any good. So the general uptrend may be awhile and the second catalyst will be several of the items you mention above. The biggest mover could be the TBR deal if it occurs prior to the payment from Total! By the end of 2016 only ten months I would suspect that much of what we have been waiting for these many years will be known. The real question is if timing is at its ultimate worst, a recession, oil in the tank etc. will there be much of a catalyst to the current PPS from here.

[jft310]

John Paulson (housing top caller) today said the stock market is over reacting . Also Carl Icahn has a better market performance measured over time than Buffett . He is big into Cheniere Energy , Freeport Mac, type stocks . Appears he has been early but his market calls are stellar measured over time . Carl averages 16 percent per year . Picking an exact bottom is very difficult . Understand these terrible energy stock quarters will start to be anniversaried soon. S and P earning should grow vs 2015 by the end of the year . Or the second half is better than the first half . Will some over levered companies go bust ?..Yes . Interoil has no debt today and has a Huge change coming to their balance sheet. With the new 2015 asset size reports all the analysis will be forced to raise their numbers . The street is at 7 T's today . That changes . Can Goldman etc move the stock price .?
Many think so .

[sageo]

My opinions below

1)Interoil is required to file a 2015 reservoir asset size report by March 31 for year end 2015 . Interoil has had considerable success in 2015 finding more dolomite . Estimates should rise . Historically report is made public mid Feb...

2)How many reservoir engineering firm estimates will be floated in 2016 Calender year for PRL-15. ???. How can GLJ continue to be the official Interoil engineering firm with OSH and PAC using GCA and NSAI?? More estimates creates confusion.

3) Antelope 6 should be at or near TD we should hear about that . Well will be tested with DST we should hear about that . Cores should be taken should hear in 6-8 weeks about those results

4)Further connectivity tests should be close to completion or completed by now . Should further validate reservoir connectivity .

5) Hession has clearly stated they are in discussions about a Total type deal for TBR. Will Hession collect on his BOD payday and sign an LNG deal to confirm TBR with a non Total????

6) Ant 7 to drill or not drill should be revealed post Ant 6 . Either way shareholders should benefit . Based on Total Super Speed drilling of Ant 6 .

7) Interoil has no debt unlike most others in the oil and gas biz . Hession states they can reduce expenditures to the point they can live off current cash without debt until Total payment receipt. If successful would demonstrate superior business management skills . A view of that on the year end report.

8) if others talk to IR or MGT encourage them to do a road show when the new information is received as stated above . The payment has no ties to oil prices and should be robust . If not 10 T's now then certainly 10 T's on the second go round .

Others may see things differently .

Jft - Good am to you. Liked your last entry to #6....."Based on Total super speed drilling of #6" (antelope). Wish you could have also said"and their super speed reporting on flow-testing of #5 and the announcement of TD on Ant 6" . [ ....forgive me,I guess I'm getting "antsy" with this long 3 day week-end coming up] . Have a good one !

[Palm]

How can it be that IOC "has no debt" when they most likely by now have tapped the line and owe the PRE succesor for their exit from PRL39? They have debt.

[jft310]

The PRL-39 payback is paid back from LNG cash flow , without interest payments .Traditional debt requires repayment of principle and interest usually monthly . Not so with the PRE repay . Not debt In the traditional case. Hession stated they should not have to tap into the line of credit . Most would think he knows more about the company finances then posters on the board . He was going to cut expenses from where they were down to accomplish that objective . Using older overhead numbers and projecting forward is not proper in this case . Both Hession and the CFO signed off on those statements . They know more .

[Palm]

Ahhh yes, the magic of explaining away the balance sheet reality. It's debt but not really debt if you look at it this way or that. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. The Q3 financials have the amount on the balance sheet and it's disclosed in the notes as an amount owed to "PRE". That's a debt beyond a trade payable. Hession has said he has all kinds of plans. Fact is they have zero incoming cash from any sources and they have had cash going out, including paying off the notes last November. By the end of Q1 we should expect that they will have tapped the line based on what his own projections were for 2016 expenditures.

[Stavros]

I agree Palm ... IOC will remain resource rich but ca$h poor
Good CEO's are now taking large pay cuts, in commiseration (Definition: to express sadness or sympathy for someone who has experienced something unpleasant) with shareholders who are bleeding profusely
Hession ... ???? NOT

Hession said there's no reason to borrow from the current lending facility because he thought "early works" on Papua LNG Project would commence after the Certification Payment.

To my opinion he was purposely fibbing . . . again.
He can hide in the Safe Harbor of Singapore whenever he does this.
He knows very well that A-7 will delay Certification Payment until roughly December.
As I understand, IOC must also pay their share for drilling A-7 ... which will set them back $15 - 35 million.

I suspect IOC has already started ponying-up their share of the EARLY "early works" costs ... and he knew it.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if IOC must extend the $300 million Lending Facility into 2017 and increase it to $400 million or more.
Would that be a good thing??
YES it would be very good news because it would mean the Banks fully support IOC and have determined there's no risk of not getting paid back in full.
The interest rate should be something like Libor +6%.
Large "early works" expenditure would also validate my opinion that the Papua LNG Plant will start up in 2020.

TOTAL will reduce CAPEX expenditures in 2016 and beyond.
The operative word is "reduce"
They will spend Billion$ in CAPEX on the best projects.
Papua LNG is the BEST one they have on the table.

[jft310]

Please understand we an apples and oranges story on expenses . The Apple is overhead expenses that can be cut and Hession stated he could cut enough to not tap the credit line before the Total payment arrived . If one looks back over the almost 3 years this team has been making expense forecasts they have beat their estimates every quarter. No reason to see why that pattern wound now change . Therefore expect on this next call to see a number within guidance , or non use of the credit line , they have the right to update us on the next call. The Orange is a seperate category pre works on the LNG project required by Total. Hession on the last call did not mention this item pre Total payment so it's hard to think we get those expenses pre Total check. Once again the company can update us on this next call. Or this is a minor thing at best and so far management had been within forecast . To take a Grand Canyon leap and assume this quarter will be the first they miss has no basis in history , we wait .