My friends,
Now that the votes are in and counting is well underway, we are beginning to get a picture of what the coalition could look like. To form a majority government, 56 seats are required. If we assume that the candidates that are currently leading their riding actually win their seats, below is a list of the parties that will have at least 5 seats:
27 - O'Neill - People’s National Congress Party
17 - Independent
14 - Don Poyle - Triumph Heritage Empowerment Party
9 - Belden Namah - PNG Party
7 - Michael Somare - National Alliance Party
6 - William Duma - United Resources Party
5 - Peter Ipatas - People's Party
5 - Sir Julius Chan - People’s Progress Party
Now, imho, there are a few keys to forming the coalition:
* - 31 available ministry positions being offered as the carrot to join the coalition (click here)
* - O'Neill's party strength of almost half of the required seats
* - O'Neill's agreement with Namah
* - Poyle and Namah are strong leaders that appear to have their parties under control
* - Independents or 1-3 member parties are unlikely to become a factor unless they decide to merge with an existing larger party, something I see as unlikely. [EDIT: Perhaps merging with another party is not so far fetched after reading Tree's post - click here]
So if you take O'Neill and Namah you have 36 of the 56 seats. Now, how to get the remaining 20, keeping in mind the National Alliance Party is not an option as Somare hates O'Neill.
Option A
A natural selection is to add Don Poyle's party. He has worked with O'Neill as the treasury and finance minister and adds 14 seats for a total of 50. I would expect only 5-6 minister positions would have to be given up. Only 6 more seats needed, which could easily be made up from independents or one of the smaller 5-6 seat parties. These could be bought with 4-5 more ministry seats and would leave 20 or so ministry positions for O'Neill and Namah.
Option B
Gather Duma's, Ipatas's and Chan's parties together by offering 1 high profile and 1 normal profile ministry seat per party. This would give 52 seats with the remaining 4 seats from independents or a party with 4 or less seats. That would leave approx 20 ministry positions for O'Neill and Namah.
Option C
Combine option A and B to form an extremely strong coalition that would be very difficult to challenge. In fact I would see it as near impossible for an opposition member to gather the strength (with 1-2 members in their party) to challenge the new government.
After crunching the numbers further, even if all the parties with 5 or more seats (not including the independents) try to exclude O'Neill they only have 46 votes. Indeed it would take all the parties with 2 or more seats to exactly form the 56 seat minimum. A fragile impossibility in my opinion.
So with everything being said I believe that O'Neill holds all the cards and Option C will be the final outcome. All that remains is who gets the high profile ministry seats and that would appear to be reserved for the Poyle, Namah and O'Neill parties. The coalition should form quickly and I believe by early to mid August we will know who our new DPE is.
As always Please Do Your Own Research, fwiw and most importantly, Health and Happiness,
hemi
Now that the votes are in and counting is well underway, we are beginning to get a picture of what the coalition could look like. To form a majority government, 56 seats are required. If we assume that the candidates that are currently leading their riding actually win their seats, below is a list of the parties that will have at least 5 seats:
27 - O'Neill - People’s National Congress Party
17 - Independent
14 - Don Poyle - Triumph Heritage Empowerment Party
9 - Belden Namah - PNG Party
7 - Michael Somare - National Alliance Party
6 - William Duma - United Resources Party
5 - Peter Ipatas - People's Party
5 - Sir Julius Chan - People’s Progress Party
Now, imho, there are a few keys to forming the coalition:
* - 31 available ministry positions being offered as the carrot to join the coalition (click here)
* - O'Neill's party strength of almost half of the required seats
* - O'Neill's agreement with Namah
* - Poyle and Namah are strong leaders that appear to have their parties under control
* - Independents or 1-3 member parties are unlikely to become a factor unless they decide to merge with an existing larger party, something I see as unlikely. [EDIT: Perhaps merging with another party is not so far fetched after reading Tree's post - click here]
So if you take O'Neill and Namah you have 36 of the 56 seats. Now, how to get the remaining 20, keeping in mind the National Alliance Party is not an option as Somare hates O'Neill.
Option A
A natural selection is to add Don Poyle's party. He has worked with O'Neill as the treasury and finance minister and adds 14 seats for a total of 50. I would expect only 5-6 minister positions would have to be given up. Only 6 more seats needed, which could easily be made up from independents or one of the smaller 5-6 seat parties. These could be bought with 4-5 more ministry seats and would leave 20 or so ministry positions for O'Neill and Namah.
Option B
Gather Duma's, Ipatas's and Chan's parties together by offering 1 high profile and 1 normal profile ministry seat per party. This would give 52 seats with the remaining 4 seats from independents or a party with 4 or less seats. That would leave approx 20 ministry positions for O'Neill and Namah.
Option C
Combine option A and B to form an extremely strong coalition that would be very difficult to challenge. In fact I would see it as near impossible for an opposition member to gather the strength (with 1-2 members in their party) to challenge the new government.
After crunching the numbers further, even if all the parties with 5 or more seats (not including the independents) try to exclude O'Neill they only have 46 votes. Indeed it would take all the parties with 2 or more seats to exactly form the 56 seat minimum. A fragile impossibility in my opinion.
So with everything being said I believe that O'Neill holds all the cards and Option C will be the final outcome. All that remains is who gets the high profile ministry seats and that would appear to be reserved for the Poyle, Namah and O'Neill parties. The coalition should form quickly and I believe by early to mid August we will know who our new DPE is.
As always Please Do Your Own Research, fwiw and most importantly, Health and Happiness,
hemi
