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'Palm' pid='71236' datel Wrote:If this deal falls apart I fear that the "highest bidders" will indeed pluck the pieces, but at great discounts. With the state of the industry and as UncleT mentions, IOC's current state (cash-strapped which didn't just happen recently, likley credit-tapped, etc., etc.) I fear that black vultures are more likely than white knights. I Do hope I'm wrong and I don't like what MH and the BOD has done, but it's cold-hard business for this industry not much unlike the real estate industry of the not-too-distant past. Location, location, location meant nada. I also would like to hear very realistic plans/reasoning for 100% (or even very high) valuations being obtained for piece-mealing IOC's assets, and who would be able to do it in quick manner. Total has made its decision and communicated it loud and clear. Hopefully someone else will step up, but the time that has passed without a peep speaks volumes.
I see that point, Palm, but much of it really depends on the outcome of the certification, which makes this thing so frustrating to judge, IMHO.
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'UncleT' pid='71205' datel Wrote:
Since you have been so vocal about the deal. My question to you is how do the numbers work? A7 is being drilled. Cert payment isn't for another year (generously 1.5 years behind schedule). How do we finance the next year, our portion of a plant, and exploration costs on raptor, bobcat, wahoo, triceratops, antelope south, or anything else?
I agree this deal doesn't smell right. However, I could use a little more hard facts on how exactly IOC can monetize it's assets and last through 2023 when they finally become a company with cash flows.
There is no doubt in my mind Phil Mulacek can run this organization on a shoestring. He has done it in the past and if it takes several years to farm down IOC PPLs because of lack of funds, so be it. IOC will need to go into hibernation if the certification payment is small.
It has become clear that it was Hession who demanded drilling of A7 which sets the certification back, not TOT, not OSH. Further, drilling A7 will drain the remaining cash from IOC coffers. Maybe Mulacek's first move as CEO would be to halt work on A7 if at all possible. With not one but two long term flow tests in addition to six appraisal wells in this "High Darcy" formation I never could understand the rational for pushing the certification back. Now I see a whole host of other nefarious actions being revealed which at best can be interpreted as simple cover up of extraordinary incompetence. At worst, felony.
For OSH's part it continues to seem most plausible that IOC assets were the only thing that Botten could grab and still keep gas starved OSH afloat.
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The Certification is a piece of this, no doubt. That SPA was written/signed during a very "hot" time in the industry. I'd bet that many "SPA"s written back in the real estate boom also had many juicy payolas that never came to fruition also.
2 years ago about now things started quickly changing in O&G and we are still dealing with the fallout. If this mgmt/BOD had backbone they could possibly sue Total for things like Ant S and dragging things out. Unfortunately it's likely "good luck there", especially since Total has taken their stand in this deal. They've spoken clearly.
As I said, I really do hope someone steps up as a suitor, but based on communications from IR suitors came forth some time ago.
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What a shame, it looks like things might be finally changing again in the O&G industry...Timing is everything.
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'Palm' pid='71240' datel Wrote:The Certification is a piece of this, no doubt. That SPA was written/signed during a very "hot" time in the industry. I'd bet that many "SPA"s written back in the real estate boom also had many juicy payolas that never came to fruition also. 2 years ago about now things started quickly changing in O&G and we are still dealing with the fallout. If this mgmt/BOD had backbone they could possibly sue Total for things like Ant S and dragging things out. Unfortunately it's likely "good luck there", especially since Total has taken their stand in this deal. They've spoken clearly. As I said, I really do hope someone steps up as a suitor, but based on communications from IR suitors came forth some time ago.
Sounds like the makings of a successful lawsuit. From the examples posted a couple of days ago, it seems wise to vote no on the deal, if only to protect one's standing in any such suit.
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'Spartina' pid='71243' dateline='<a href="tel:1464799 Wrote:What a shame, it looks like things might be finally changing again in the O&G industry...Timing is everything.
Changing but how? certainly not back to boom times anytime soon IMO. Being in the energy business things are changing very rapidly. Customers by the end of this year or early 2017 will have 30% of their base-load generation from wind within the State, and the newest piece will be at lower cost than coal-based generation. That will not be through RECs, but in-state projects. This is FAR ahead of some of the most agressive expectations.
O&G execs see these trends and others and were being advised late last year to change models. Expectations are for much more in the way of M&A activity. Times have changed.
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'ArtM72' pid='71239' datel Wrote:
'UncleT' pid='71205' datel Wrote:
Since you have been so vocal about the deal. My question to you is how do the numbers work? A7 is being drilled. Cert payment isn't for another year (generously 1.5 years behind schedule). How do we finance the next year, our portion of a plant, and exploration costs on raptor, bobcat, wahoo, triceratops, antelope south, or anything else?
I agree this deal doesn't smell right. However, I could use a little more hard facts on how exactly IOC can monetize it's assets and last through 2023 when they finally become a company with cash flows.
There is no doubt in my mind Phil Mulacek can run this organization on a shoestring. He has done it in the past and if it takes several years to farm down IOC PPLs because of lack of funds, so be it. IOC will need to go into hibernation if the certification payment is small.
It has become clear that it was Hession who demanded drilling of A7 which sets the certification back, not TOT, not OSH. Further, drilling A7 will drain the remaining cash from IOC coffers. Maybe Mulacek's first move as CEO would be to halt work on A7 if at all possible. With not one but two long term flow tests in addition to six appraisal wells in this "High Darcy" formation I never could understand the rational for pushing the certification back. Now I see a whole host of other nefarious actions being revealed which at best can be interpreted as simple cover up of extraordinary incompetence. At worst, felony.
For OSH's part it continues to seem most plausible that IOC assets were the only thing that Botten could grab and still keep gas starved OSH afloat.
Mulacek may have run IOC on a shoestring in the past. But future capital expenditures will be largely determined by Total. A problem is that IOC doesn't own anything. It has licences in PNG. And the government wants the deal. IOC as an E&P company has been destroyed by Hession. lOC is going away.
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'Thylacine-2' pid='71251' datel Wrote:
'ArtM72' pid='71239' datel Wrote:
There is no doubt in my mind Phil Mulacek can run this organization on a shoestring. He has done it in the past and if it takes several years to farm down IOC PPLs because of lack of funds, so be it. IOC will need to go into hibernation if the certification payment is small.
It has become clear that it was Hession who demanded drilling of A7 which sets the certification back, not TOT, not OSH. Further, drilling A7 will drain the remaining cash from IOC coffers. Maybe Mulacek's first move as CEO would be to halt work on A7 if at all possible. With not one but two long term flow tests in addition to six appraisal wells in this "High Darcy" formation I never could understand the rational for pushing the certification back. Now I see a whole host of other nefarious actions being revealed which at best can be interpreted as simple cover up of extraordinary incompetence. At worst, felony.
For OSH's part it continues to seem most plausible that IOC assets were the only thing that Botten could grab and still keep gas starved OSH afloat.
Mulacek may have run IOC on a shoestring in the past. But future capital expenditures will be largely determined by Total. A problem is that IOC doesn't own anything. It has licences in PNG. And the government wants the deal. IOC as an E&P company has been destroyed by Hession. lOC is going away.
Notwithstanding the fatalistic or short inspired comments in the thread immediately above IOC is NOT without assets. Let's also not mislead readers into thinking IOC's payments due under the SPA with Total were in any way impacted by the drop in the price of oil. By evidence of Hession's own words it was he, not Total or OSH, who demanded A7 and thus pushed back certification (at least this last time). Further, all evidence now points to the incompetence of Hession and his crew, not Total's that the appraisal wells were not completed anywhere near their sheduled timeline. (I use the word incompetence, but sabotage came to mind as a possible fit but I digress),
Lots of things in this world go into hibernation or similar state while waiting for conditions to improve. There is no reason why IOC can't as well. With Total's CEO stating A7 would be done with certification taking place by year's end I see no reason to give up hope yet. What depresses me is there is now nothing that Hession has said in the past two and a half years that is not suspect. Thankfully we have a series of GLJ assessments that are likely untainted by Hession and his minions.
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There is a great graphic on the presentation to Goldman Sachs for their January 2016 energy conference. http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documen...%20PPT.pdf
Pages 16 and 17 show the clear path to monetization through construction of the LNG plant. If the plant cost $10 billion rather than $16 billion the numbers would look even better. Referencing numbers from that presentation less than 20 weeks ago it is pretty clear that somebody should be trying desperately to find Safe Harbor about now.
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'Palm' pid='71248' datel Wrote:
'Spartina' pid='71243' dateline='<a href="tel:1464799 Wrote:What a shame, it looks like things might be finally changing again in the O&G industry...Timing is everything.
Changing but how? certainly not back to boom times anytime soon IMO. Being in the energy business things are changing very rapidly. Customers by the end of this year or early 2017 will have 30% of their base-load generation from wind within the State, and the newest piece will be at lower cost than coal-based generation. That will not be through RECs, but in-state projects. This is FAR ahead of some of the most agressive expectations.
O&G execs see these trends and others and were being advised late last year to change models. Expectations are for much more in the way of M&A activity. Times have changed.
I am not in the energy business, but I have seen some wind-generation fields in Europe and the United States. So, I would be very interested to know which State/States will provide 30% of their base-load generation from wind power by early 2017?
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