Oil Search Resource Press Release

[will2bgreat]

For our experts here; have you ever seen such a disparity in estimates such as we are seeing in GLJ and GCA?

[SupaSage2003]

This is unbelievable! 6.43 TCF is 59% below the GLJ number of 10.2 TCFe.

Will the stock be down $6/share at the opening tomorrow or will the Exxon bid hold it up a little?

Based on their number the CVR's are worth $1.40/share.

Hey Pet.  OSH is trading at AU$7.07 right now, which puts the value of an all-share payment value at $43.45 at this moment.  I'm guessing that should be the floor tomorrow and that, if investors think XOM will bid soon, the stock doesn't get down that low.  I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Stavros]

Yes it will include A-7 - - - BUTT will the Certifiers be given all the data after A-7?
HELL NO
The same schist will happen again if OSH acquires IOC
HOWEVER, if XOM acquires IOC, they will make sure that all the data is given to the Certifiers


The issue, as Phil Mulacek warned us in his Presentations, is that the OSH/IPI certification was egregiously manipulated by Oil Search (and probably with IOC's complicity).

Phil told us that a very large amount of data was being withheld from the certifiers.

How else would it be possible that GCA estimated 7.1 Tcfe in the past, and now estimates less????

IT CAN ONLY BE THE CASE IF THEY WERE GIVEN LESS DATA THIS TIME

[SupaSage2003]

Yes it does. The last three wells did not increase the GCA or the GLJ estimates though.

Thanks for clarifying Put.  At this point, it seems our best outcome lies in an XOM bid.  At least with XOM we know their interests would be aligned with ours (i.e., they benefit from a large resource number and therefore, big resource payment from TOTAL) and that we'd get the most value for our shares.

[cybersssss]

They clearly tried to hide this to dangle the carrot. The Exxon bid forced them to release this publicly instead of delaying it as they planned. This is another move of a pawn in this chess game.

I think this shows that they clearly never intended to drill a7 for us.

[jft310]

Let's not forget how unhappy Total would be pay buckets of money to Exxon . Seems very reasonable we get a new higher Total supported OSH bid or a seperate Total bid .

[jdeo1969]

HELL NO
The same schist will happen again if OSH acquires IOC
HOWEVER, if XOM acquires IOC, they will make sure that all the data is given to the Certifiers


The issue, as Phil Mulacek warned us in his Presentations, is that the OSH/IPI certification was egregiously manipulated by Oil Search (and probably with IOC's complicity).

Phil told us that a very large amount of data was being withheld from the certifiers.


CAC has very wisely been posting that for months now.

[cybersssss]

For those of you who know... What kind of data could they withhold to manipulate the dat?

[ArtM72]

HELL NO The same schist will happen again if OSH acquires IOC HOWEVER, if XOM acquires IOC, they will make sure that all the data is given to the Certifiers The issue, as Phil Mulacek warned us in his Presentations, is that the OSH/IPI certification was egregiously manipulated by Oil Search (and probably with IOC's complicity). Phil told us that a very large amount of data was being withheld from the certifiers. CAC has very wisely been posting that for months now.

Well, that's not what the release claims...they say both organizations had a complete set of data from the start and additional data as it became available.

There isn't too much to say.  We can question what data was made available and how was it analysed, but the press release appears to say this press release will be the only information released.  There apparently won't be full reports issued, although we are told they exist.  We can question the rationale for considering these two companies now 'tainted'. We can demand from Hession, and from GLC, an explanation of how the GLC numbers year after year have been over 50% higher. than what OSH is now stating. What was Hession's basis for continuing to state the size of the resource kept getting larger with each new well.

Tomorrow will be a bloodbath I fear.

[cybersssss]

Bloodbath? I doubt bloodbath. There are two offers on the table. We may go down but bloodbath is not really possible.