XOM slides....note the loan

[katytrader]

I find these slides to be clear on their offer.  Note that the escrow account for the CPR is being described as an interest-bearing loan.  So, presumably,

the loan repayment (the CRP) is a return of capital (?) to IOC shareholders.  If so, a discussion of tax treatment for US shareholders is welcome.

[Putncalls]

Why does the market put a value of ~0 on the certification?

[cybersssss]

The market is currently putting over 4 dollars on the value of certification.

[Crippsfl]

The market is currently putting over 4 dollars on the value of certification.

So the market is expecting the certification to come in at LESS than 7 Tcfe.  Seems very similar to the pipe dream we were getting from OSH.  Exxon has NO intention of coming out with a reasonable initial certification.  It will be low and the final one, the one that leaves us high and dry, will be much higher.

[AU74]

The market is currently putting over 4 dollars on the value of certification.

So the market is expecting the certification to come in at LESS than 7 Tcfe.  Seems very similar to the pipe dream we were getting from OSH.  Exxon has NO intention of coming out with a reasonable initial certification.  It will be low and the final one, the one that leaves us high and dry, will be much higher.

Exectly why a No vote is the right vote.

[Northoil]

The market is currently putting over 4 dollars on the value of certification.

So the market is expecting the certification to come in at LESS than 7 Tcfe.  Seems very similar to the pipe dream we were getting from OSH.  Exxon has NO intention of coming out with a reasonable initial certification.  It will be low and the final one, the one that leaves us high and dry, will be much higher.

Exectly why a No vote is the right vote.

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The current $4 market premium to the $45 is not a single-point market expectation.  It is the risked. discounted sum of all outcomes, made with highly imperfect information and therefore heavily risked.

Also, speaking of expectations, I'm not sure what the expectations are for the result of a "no" vote.  If the deal is turned down, the next day the shares may drop back to the $30 level where all this started.  Might we get an enhanced offer from Exxon and might the shares recover and increase?  Maybe.  And maybe Exxon have reached their limit in the negotiations they've already had with IOC.  Most people, myself included, want the bird in the hand versus pie in the sky. Sorry about the metaphors.

[AU74]

Sounds like many have thrown in the towel, despite the fact that the XOM deal is only a RC hair better than the OSH deal. I'll be fine because I doubled up my holdings in the mid 20's earlier this year, but I still think we are being screwed here. I'm with PM in wanting to participate in the TOTality of future payments owed under the "transformational" deal.