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Since many don't look at Yahoo. I reposted this J Wilkins article here from Stansberry and Associates.
Interesting Bonk is distorting the Baldali stock performance track record. Anyone surprised.??
July 31, 2012
IOC makes new highs… Badiali called it… Matt and Cactus in Papua New Guinea… Minkow's 'research'… An easy 61% on XOM… Doc's blue-chip oil pick… Jeff Clark: 'Take profits on oil'… Selling options for income…
One of the most hotly debated stocks we've ever recommended is trading at new highs on a string of good news.
Pacific Rubiales Energy, a $6.8 billion Colombian oil producer, bought a 10% interest in one of oil and gas producer InterOil's three discoveries, called Triceratops. Also, the shares have been buoyed by news that InterOil recently completed a successful drilling effort, and oil major Royal Dutch Shell is considering buying out the company.
Matt Badiali recommended InterOil to his S&A Resource Report subscribers in January 2010. The company operates in Papua New Guinea. And it controls what we thought could be one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves. When he recommended InterOil, billionaires George Soros and Carlo Civelli had already taken positions. And Japanese investment bank Mitsui also owned the stock. (Japanese banks are notoriously conservative.)
On the other hand… our friend and hedge-fund manager of T2 Partners Whitney Tilson was short InterOil, bolstered by research from Barry Minkow, founder of the Fraud Discovery Institute.
Minkow, as you may know, went to prison in the 1980s. His publicly traded carpet cleaning company, ZZZZ Best, was a Ponzi scheme. After his release, Minkow remade himself into a watchdog, exposing fraudulent companies. InterOil marked his first foray into the energy sector…
Our analysis of InterOil was based on boots-on-the ground research… We sent Matt Badiali and Cactus Schroeder – one of our most trusted oil experts – to Papua New Guinea to research the company and its reserves. Then Matt, Cactus, and Dan Ferris all had dinner with Civelli – the company's largest shareholder – in Zurich. Many of our associates operate in speculative mining and energy stocks. And we're not at all naïve about it. Dinner went well, and Matt came away still confident in his call.
Meanwhile, the shorts were rallying behind Minkow, who based his short thesis on the barrage of press releases InterOil sent out. What Minkow – whose main business experience involved cleaning carpets – didn't know was that press releases are very important to speculative natural resources companies. InterOil is drilling for natural gas in a remote jungle. Nobody would know they exist or what they're doing without press releases.
How does the story end? Well, as I said above, InterOil is currently trading at new highs. And Minkow is back in jail… Last March, Minkow pleaded guilty to criminal insider trading for actions that damaged the stock price of Lennar, one of the country's largest homebuilders.
You can read a more complete version of the InterOil saga (including an amazing picture of the company burning off gas) here. The InterOil dispute shows the power of boots-on-the-ground research and a strong network of professionals… We did the tough research and were proven correct. We hope Tilson covered… The stock could go even higher from here.
One of our top sources in the energy sector is bullish on InterOil. He believes the Big Oil companies will start a bidding war for the company (with ExxonMobil as the most likely buyer).
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Hohoho thanks jft! These guys may not be the best, but they have stuck by IOC since they made the call. Saw through Minkow & Co crap because they went to check things out. Maybe we do the same before long. Bill Jasper said at AGM anytime we want to take a look, they'd give us the royal treatment. Tree has volunteered for the next seismic crew. Can't beat $0.50/day!
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All the wives need to attend I think for the Helicopter Tour. Definitely Kodak moments. Tree needs a raise. We all know about Tree's size...(seismic)sic.
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08-01-2012, 08:43 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2012, 09:54 PM by Orlando.)
(08-01-2012, 12:39 PM)Palm Wrote: Hohoho thanks jft! These guys may not be the best, but they have stuck by IOC since they made the call. Saw through Minkow & Co crap because they went to check things out. Maybe we do the same before long. Bill Jasper said at AGM anytime we want to take a look, they'd give us the royal treatment. Tree has volunteered for the next seismic crew. Can't beat $0.50/day!
PalmWrit, with all due Spinnaker respect, I thing you are missing the point as to why the seismic job has Tree salivating. It is not the high salary. It is the benefits! (kind of like government work) At the AGM afterglow, I learned from Phil himself that the job also comes with a free, all-you-can-eat grilled buffet every night. Actually, it is an all-you-can-kill-and-eat grilled buffet, but still, it is free! THAT is what Tree is after. With all those wives, and how they eat, there is often not much left for our beloved Tree. Haven't you read about how much olympic athletes eat while they are in training?
Hope you don't mind the clarification. Just trying to keep it real here at SHU.
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Thanks Orlando and now it's making more sense. Ever since Tree heard about the new specialty in PNG ("tube-steak stew") he keeps talking about wanting to get over there to see his family. You've hit the real reason; he wants to be on the staking crew so he can get some of the tube-steak stew. I think he's getting mixed up with the two spellings; stake vs steak. He may come back with a much higher voice.
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'jft310' pid='7532' datel Wrote:
Since many don't look at Yahoo. I reposted this J Wilkins article here from Stansberry and Associates.
Interesting Bonk is distorting the Baldali stock performance track record. Anyone surprised.??
July 31, 2012
IOC makes new highs… Badiali called it… Matt and Cactus in Papua New Guinea… Minkow's 'research'… An easy 61% on XOM… Doc's blue-chip oil pick… Jeff Clark: 'Take profits on oil'… Selling options for income…
One of the most hotly debated stocks we've ever recommended is trading at new highs on a string of good news.
Pacific Rubiales Energy, a $6.8 billion Colombian oil producer, bought a 10% interest in one of oil and gas producer InterOil's three discoveries, called Triceratops. Also, the shares have been buoyed by news that InterOil recently completed a successful drilling effort, and oil major Royal Dutch Shell is considering buying out the company.
Matt Badiali recommended InterOil to his S&A Resource Report subscribers in January 2010. The company operates in Papua New Guinea. And it controls what we thought could be one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves. When he recommended InterOil, billionaires George Soros and Carlo Civelli had already taken positions. And Japanese investment bank Mitsui also owned the stock. (Japanese banks are notoriously conservative.)
On the other hand… our friend and hedge-fund manager of T2 Partners Whitney Tilson was short InterOil, bolstered by research from Barry Minkow, founder of the Fraud Discovery Institute.
Minkow, as you may know, went to prison in the 1980s. His publicly traded carpet cleaning company, ZZZZ Best, was a Ponzi scheme. After his release, Minkow remade himself into a watchdog, exposing fraudulent companies. InterOil marked his first foray into the energy sector…
Our analysis of InterOil was based on boots-on-the ground research… We sent Matt Badiali and Cactus Schroeder – one of our most trusted oil experts – to Papua New Guinea to research the company and its reserves. Then Matt, Cactus, and Dan Ferris all had dinner with Civelli – the company's largest shareholder – in Zurich. Many of our associates operate in speculative mining and energy stocks. And we're not at all naïve about it. Dinner went well, and Matt came away still confident in his call.
Meanwhile, the shorts were rallying behind Minkow, who based his short thesis on the barrage of press releases InterOil sent out. What Minkow – whose main business experience involved cleaning carpets – didn't know was that press releases are very important to speculative natural resources companies. InterOil is drilling for natural gas in a remote jungle. Nobody would know they exist or what they're doing without press releases.
How does the story end? Well, as I said above, InterOil is currently trading at new highs. And Minkow is back in jail… Last March, Minkow pleaded guilty to criminal insider trading for actions that damaged the stock price of Lennar, one of the country's largest homebuilders.
You can read a more complete version of the InterOil saga (including an amazing picture of the company burning off gas) here. The InterOil dispute shows the power of boots-on-the-ground research and a strong network of professionals… We did the tough research and were proven correct. We hope Tilson covered… The stock could go even higher from here. One of our top sources in the energy sector is bullish on InterOil. He believes the Big Oil companies will start a bidding war for the company (with ExxonMobil as the most likely buyer).
"ExxonMobil as the most likely buyer." Back in December 2009, Exxon bought XTO Energy for $1 per mcf of "gas resources." What will Exxon pay when IOC declares FID and places the gas resources on the balance sheet? Back in December 2010, Badiali stated that when IOC reaches 10T's natural gas resources "it should begin to trade comparably to its peers. The average price for those companies is around $3 per MCF." Now I believe that he was talking about US companies. We know that IOC possesses numerous significant advantages over US natural gas companies. It has been mentioned several times by different posters that Exxon can pay even more than $3 per mcf and still be profitable at PNG LNG. These macro realities have never gone away, they were merely pushed to the background by short term political and market manipulations. These can surpress realities and facts for a short period, but in the end the facts will prevail and equilibrium will be reinstated. I believe we are beginning to see this now.
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Kerekesc,
You raise the following question: "What will Exxon pay when IOC declares FID and places the gas resources on the balance sheet? "
Please note that the gas resources will NOT then, or ever be placed on the balance sheet. They are merely re-named as reserves rather than resources -- per the appropriate governmental standards.
The to-date COST is ALREADY on the balance sheet as an asset. Nothing numerical changes in that regard, although the exact terminology may change.
Clearly, there will be increased value when FID is declared, but it will not show up on the Balance Sheet. More than likely that increased value will show up in the market price of the stock.
What would Exxon pay? Who knows? Beauty (value) is in the eye of the beholder.
VS
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08-02-2012, 12:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2012, 12:48 PM by maui4marko.)
This quote from Dan Ferris jives with my desire for a juicy XOM dividend that goes well with VO.
On the topic of ExxonMobil… The largest publicly traded oil company in the world hit a 52-week high yesterday. In my (Dan Ferris' opinion, you can be as bearish as you want on oil, natural gas, or whatever… There's plenty of reason to expect oil prices to fall from here… But I'll never sell short ExxonMobil. Nor am I likely to advise selling the stock at these prices. I remember when oil prices brushed a low of near $10 a barrel in 1999. ExxonMobil earned a double-digit return on equity that year. That made an impression on me…
So when famous short-seller Jim Chanos said he was shorting the stock in the summer of 2010, I explained in the July 2010 issue of Extreme Value why I thought he was wrong. I said right in the headline to that issue, "Buying [Chanos'] latest target could earn you the safest 50% profit of your life." ExxonMobil closed at $56.57 that day. It's more than $87 today. Including $3.77 per share paid out in dividends, the stock has returned 61% since I said Chanos was wrong.
ExxonMobil is one of the most brilliantly managed companies on the planet. It's also a low-cost producer of oil and gas. It's the kind of stock you buy, reinvest dividends, and forget about for 20 years (provided we keep using oil and gas for the next 20 years… which I think is a safe bet).
PS ExxonMobil has raised its dividend every year for 29 years
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So Maui, you think if Exxon is the winner over Shell it will give us the best chance of still getting the Oreo Bay ski and VO club? I've heard Exxon tend to be more socially friendly than Shell. Exxon welcome all bar patrons through the front door. Shell requires one to stumble in through the back door and dodge all the empty bottles and kegs. Poor operator that RDS.
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It's true palmVOoil that the xom boys are the extroverts and those shell guys, well don't turn your back on 'em lol
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