Voting Decision Tree

[hirosan]

Thanks so if and I know that's a big if you thought there was going to be a big crp you could sell before voting closes, buy back in that first week. You may have to pay a bit more but you negate the risk that goes with a no vote

[petrengr1]

Thanks so if and I know that's a big if you thought there was going to be a big crp you could sell before voting closes, buy back in that first week. You may have to pay a bit more but you negate the risk that goes with a no vote

hirosan- Please reread my first message. If you do not own IOC stock on the date of closing you will not get the CRP. If the deal closes you will no longer own IOC stock, you will own Exxon stock and no way to buy the CRP.

[hirosan]

OK thanks I get it now.
Are there any scenarios where shorts could profit buy buying shares, voting no and buying when (and if) the price collapses.
Just wondering as if I read it correctly the institutions now own less than50%. Some have sold altogether and there is large volume most days.

[Northoil]

[quote='hirosan' pid='75774' dateline='1471360051'] Thanks so if and I know that's a big if you thought there was going to be a big crp you could sell before voting closes, buy back in that first week. You may have to pay a bit more but you negate the risk that goes with a no vote

hirosan- Please reread my first message. If you do not own IOC stock on the date of closing you will not get the CRP. If the deal closes you will no longer own IOC stock, you will own Exxon stock and no way to buy the CRP.

______________________________________________________________________

Petengr - I think what he's saying - and something I decided for myself in the past week- is sell out before the vote and buy back in as soon as they announce the result, but before the closing.  You'll have a week or 4-5 business days.  That way you duck the risk of a "no" vote, but you still have time (I think) to buy back in, be a shareholder of record and get the XOM stock/CRP.

The big risk is a lot of people and institutions might have the same idea and once the downside is gone, the stock could jump several points or more.

Do you or  anybody else see something wrong in this approach?

[petrengr1]

[quote='hirosan' pid='75774' dateline='1471360051'] Thanks so if and I know that's a big if you thought there was going to be a big crp you could sell before voting closes, buy back in that first week. You may have to pay a bit more but you negate the risk that goes with a no vote

hirosan- Please reread my first message. If you do not own IOC stock on the date of closing you will not get the CRP. If the deal closes you will no longer own IOC stock, you will own Exxon stock and no way to buy the CRP.

______________________________________________________________________

Petengr - I think what he's saying - and something I decided for myself in the past week- is sell out before the vote and buy back in as soon as they announce the result, but before the closing.  You'll have a week or 4-5 business days.  That way you duck the risk of a "no" vote, but you still have time (I think) to buy back in, be a shareholder of record and get the XOM stock/CRP.

The big risk is a lot of people and institutions might have the same idea and once the downside is gone, the stock could jump several points or more.

Do you or  anybody else see something wrong in this approach?

"Transaction close expected to occur within one week of the vote" could mean one day or two days etc. You will have to buy at least 3 trading days before the closing in order to be a shareholder of record on the closing date. Another unknown that might cost you the value of the CRP. Also might have some tax consequences if you are not in an IRA or other non-taxable account. Watch out for the Wash Sale rule: "If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or "substantially identical" security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, the loss is typically disallowed for current income tax purposes. This is because of the so-called wash sale rule." Of course this just applies to US citizens.

"Transaction close expected to occur within one week of the vote" could mean one day or two days etc.

You will have to buy at least 3 trading days before the closing in order to be a shareholder of record on the closing date.

Another unknown that might cost you the value of the CRP. Also might have some tax consequences if you are not in an IRA or other non-taxable account. Watch out for the Wash Sale rule:

"If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or "substantially identical" security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, the loss is typically disallowed for current income tax purposes. This is because of the so-called wash sale rule." Of course this just applies to US citizens.

[Northoil]

[quote='petrengr1' pid='75775' dateline='1471360646']

[quote='hirosan' pid='75774' dateline='1471360051'] Thanks so if and I know that's a big if you thought there was going to be a big crp you could sell before voting closes, buy back in that first week. You may have to pay a bit more but you negate the risk that goes with a no vote

hirosan- Please reread my first message. If you do not own IOC stock on the date of closing you will not get the CRP. If the deal closes you will no longer own IOC stock, you will own Exxon stock and no way to buy the CRP.

______________________________________________________________________

Petengr - I think what he's saying - and something I decided for myself in the past week- is sell out before the vote and buy back in as soon as they announce the result, but before the closing.  You'll have a week or 4-5 business days.  That way you duck the risk of a "no" vote, but you still have time (I think) to buy back in, be a shareholder of record and get the XOM stock/CRP.

The big risk is a lot of people and institutions might have the same idea and once the downside is gone, the stock could jump several points or more.

Do you or  anybody else see something wrong in this approach?

"Transaction close expected to occur within one week of the vote" could mean one day or two days etc. You will have to buy at least 3 trading days before the closing in order to be a shareholder of record on the closing date. Another unknown that might cost you the value of the CRP. Also might have some tax consequences if you are not in an IRA or other non-taxable account. Watch out for the Wash Sale rule: "If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or "substantially identical" security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, the loss is typically disallowed for current income tax purposes. This is because of the so-called wash sale rule." Of course this just applies to US citizens.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

The 3 days is cutting it close, but it is what it is.  They could act in 2 days; I'm willing to take that risk.  I'm planning to sell out, mostly, anyway.  I'd like the CVR but am not willing to face a "no vote" with a large position, so I'll take my chances with the timing.

The wash sale is immaterial to the decision.  If you have a loss on IOC,  a loss is a loss is a loss.  The loss on the actual sale is disallowed, but it carries forward embedded in the cost of the new shares and the XOM shares.  If you want the loss for tax purposes you just have to sell the XOM stock and wait 30 days.  It will all be in the same taxable year.  Me, I'd hold Exxon for the next 1-2 years, for sure.  Any loss from IOC will emerge whenever you sell the XOM shares.

I think the bigger risk is the price action after the vote.

"Transaction close expected to occur within one week of the vote" could mean one day or two days etc.

You will have to buy at least 3 trading days before the closing in order to be a shareholder of record on the closing date.

Another unknown that might cost you the value of the CRP. Also might have some tax consequences if you are not in an IRA or other non-taxable account. Watch out for the Wash Sale rule:

"If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or "substantially identical" security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, the loss is typically disallowed for current income tax purposes. This is because of the so-called wash sale rule." Of course this just applies to US citizens.

[petrengr1]

[quote='petrengr1' pid='75775' dateline='1471360646']

[quote='hirosan' pid='75774' dateline='1471360051'] Thanks so if and I know that's a big if you thought there was going to be a big crp you could sell before voting closes, buy back in that first week. You may have to pay a bit more but you negate the risk that goes with a no vote

hirosan- Please reread my first message. If you do not own IOC stock on the date of closing you will not get the CRP. If the deal closes you will no longer own IOC stock, you will own Exxon stock and no way to buy the CRP.

______________________________________________________________________

Petengr - I think what he's saying - and something I decided for myself in the past week- is sell out before the vote and buy back in as soon as they announce the result, but before the closing.  You'll have a week or 4-5 business days.  That way you duck the risk of a "no" vote, but you still have time (I think) to buy back in, be a shareholder of record and get the XOM stock/CRP.

The big risk is a lot of people and institutions might have the same idea and once the downside is gone, the stock could jump several points or more.

Do you or  anybody else see something wrong in this approach?

"Transaction close expected to occur within one week of the vote" could mean one day or two days etc. You will have to buy at least 3 trading days before the closing in order to be a shareholder of record on the closing date. Another unknown that might cost you the value of the CRP. Also might have some tax consequences if you are not in an IRA or other non-taxable account. Watch out for the Wash Sale rule: "If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or "substantially identical" security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, the loss is typically disallowed for current income tax purposes. This is because of the so-called wash sale rule." Of course this just applies to US citizens.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

The 3 days is cutting it close, but it is what it is.  They could act in 2 days; I'm willing to take that risk.  I'm planning to sell out, mostly, anyway.  I'd like the CVR but am not willing to face a "no vote" with a large position, so I'll take my chances with the timing.

The wash sale is immaterial to the decision.  If you have a loss on IOC,  a loss is a loss is a loss.  The loss on the actual sale is disallowed, but it carries forward embedded in the cost of the new shares and the XOM shares.  If you want the loss for tax purposes you just have to sell the XOM stock and wait 30 days.  It will all be in the same taxable year.  Me, I'd hold Exxon for the next 1-2 years, for sure.  Any loss from IOC will emerge whenever you sell the XOM shares.

I think the bigger risk is the price action after the vote.

"The big risk is a lot of people and institutions might have the same idea and once the downside is gone, the stock could jump several points or more."

"I think the bigger risk is the price action after the vote."

If you are right and the stock jumps several points or more after the vote you may lose several dollars/share before you can buy back in. Good Luck.

"Transaction close expected to occur within one week of the vote" could mean one day or two days etc.

You will have to buy at least 3 trading days before the closing in order to be a shareholder of record on the closing date.

Another unknown that might cost you the value of the CRP. Also might have some tax consequences if you are not in an IRA or other non-taxable account. Watch out for the Wash Sale rule:

"If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or "substantially identical" security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, the loss is typically disallowed for current income tax purposes. This is because of the so-called wash sale rule." Of course this just applies to US citizens.

"I think the bigger risk is the price action after the vote."

[cybersssss]

I'm still voting no

[jft310]

There are a few points that need to be clarified regarding a dissent vote:

• A dissent vote must be made two days prior to the vote date of September 21.
• Written notice of dissent must be made to IOC by such time
• A dissent vote can be withdrawn up until the effective date (closing date], allowing a dissenter to accept the yes vote bid, if it wins.
• Any dissenter may apply to the Yukon court at any time after dissenting, and IOC must then make a 'fair value' offer to all dissenters within 10 days of their receipt of notice of the dissenters application [this could occur before c!osing]
• Any dissenter may accept or reject this or any subsequent settlement offer
• Only dissenters will have a right to this or subsequent offers if the vote passes
• Any dissenter may, at any time, accept any settlement offer, up until a court-ordered appraisal value is determined
• Dissenters are not members of a class action; however the court may join dissenters together if it determines that they are unable to proceed otherwise
• Finally a 'fair value' offer is a!most always a cash offer; although Exxon could join IOC and offer shares in lieu of cash as an alternative [ a lifting of the CRP cap can not be a 'fair value' offer, in my opinion]
• Exxon specifically put a clause in the bid that IOC must use all commercially reasonable efforts to settle with dissenters

So several comments to what 2126 stated

There will be 3 types of voters , yes -6which will include all the institutions or 47 percent of the shares or 23 million plus shares voting yes . Look up the Dell suite to see why institutions vote yes .

A vote no group .

A no dissenting group that could easily decide the outcome . These no dissenters must be settled with per Exxon's offer , The no  dissenters want a higher price than offered and only that group receives the higher price , The no dissenters will then switch their vote to yes in a timely fashion and make more net profit than the yes group , Yes that's why they voted no dissenting to begin with , they wanted a higher price .

Exxon will add up the yes votes and the no dissenters collect the extra dollars and switch to yes and it's very hard to see how the yes vote does not carry the day , A no vote is a waste of your vote , the question is how to extract more value for your shares and that is clearly no dissenting .

[Northoil]

[quote='2126' pid='75755' dateline='1471280769']

There are a few points that need to be clarified regarding a dissent vote:

• A dissent vote must be made two days prior to the vote date of September 21.
• Written notice of dissent must be made to IOC by such time
• A dissent vote can be withdrawn up until the effective date (closing date], allowing a dissenter to accept the yes vote bid, if it wins.
• Any dissenter may apply to the Yukon court at any time after dissenting, and IOC must then make a 'fair value' offer to all dissenters within 10 days of their receipt of notice of the dissenters application [this could occur before c!osing]
• Any dissenter may accept or reject this or any subsequent settlement offer
• Only dissenters will have a right to this or subsequent offers if the vote passes
• Any dissenter may, at any time, accept any settlement offer, up until a court-ordered appraisal value is determined
• Dissenters are not members of a class action; however the court may join dissenters together if it determines that they are unable to proceed otherwise
• Finally a 'fair value' offer is a!most always a cash offer; although Exxon could join IOC and offer shares in lieu of cash as an alternative [ a lifting of the CRP cap can not be a 'fair value' offer, in my opinion]
• Exxon specifically put a clause in the bid that IOC must use all commercially reasonable efforts to settle with dissenters

So several comments to what 2126 stated

There will be 3 types of voters , yes -6which will include all the institutions or 47 percent of the shares or 23 million plus shares voting yes . Look up the Dell suite to see why institutions vote yes .

A vote no group .

A no dissenting group that could easily decide the outcome . These no dissenters must be settled with per Exxon's offer , The no  dissenters want a higher price than offered and only that group receives the higher price , The no dissenters will then switch their vote to yes in a timely fashion and make more net profit than the yes group , Yes that's why they voted no dissenting to begin with , they wanted a higher price .

Exxon will add up the yes votes and the no dissenters collect the extra dollars and switch to yes and it's very hard to see how the yes vote does not carry the day , A no vote is a waste of your vote , the question is how to extract more value for your shares and that is clearly no dissenting .

__________________________________________________________________

Institutions have reduced their holdings; there may be more selling before the vote.

Exxon's offer can be anything, not necessarily a higher offer.  An arms-length, market price for your stock is $49.  If Exxon offers that, what will you do, besides paying your lawyers?