If you vote no, be willing to accept the outcome.

[Gator]

Mondelez International No Longer Pursuing Combination with Hershey

DEERFIELD, Ill., Aug. 29, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Mondelēz International,

Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) today announced it has ended discussions with The Hershey

Company regarding a possible combination of the two companies.

“As the world’s leading snacking company, we remain focused on

successfully executing our strategy to deliver both sustainable top-line

growth and significant margin expansion and are well-positioned to continue to

deliver value to our shareholders,” said Chairman and CEO Irene Rosenfeld.

“Our proposal to acquire Hershey reflected our conviction that combining our

two iconic American companies would create an industry leader with global

scale in snacking and confectionery and a strong portfolio of complementary

brands. Following additional discussions, and taking into account recent

shareholder developments at Hershey, we determined that there is no actionable

path forward toward an agreement. While we are disappointed in this outcome,

we remain disciplined in our approach to creating value, including through

acquisitions, and confident that our advantaged platform positions us well for

top-tier performance over the long term.”

HSY down 11% and falling after hours.

[2126]

Mondelez International No Longer Pursuing Combination with Hershey

DEERFIELD, Ill., Aug. 29, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Mondelēz International,

Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) today announced it has ended discussions with The Hershey

Company regarding a possible combination of the two companies.

“As the world’s leading snacking company, we remain focused on

successfully executing our strategy to deliver both sustainable top-line

growth and significant margin expansion and are well-positioned to continue to

deliver value to our shareholders,” said Chairman and CEO Irene Rosenfeld.

“Our proposal to acquire Hershey reflected our conviction that combining our

two iconic American companies would create an industry leader with global

scale in snacking and confectionery and a strong portfolio of complementary

brands. Following additional discussions, and taking into account recent

shareholder developments at Hershey, we determined that there is no actionable

path forward toward an agreement. While we are disappointed in this outcome,

we remain disciplined in our approach to creating value, including through

acquisitions, and confident that our advantaged platform positions us well for

top-tier performance over the long term.”

HSY down 11% and falling after hours.

Unfortuately, unless some of the institutional holders vote NO, there is very little chance that the No votes will win. The math just doesn't support it. Institutional holders have about 48% of outstanding shares [and will in all likelyhood vote Yes with all their shares]. A fair amount of the remaining retail holders will not vote. Thus it will take an overwhelming landslide NO vote by all retail holders to block this deal.

Additionally, IOC/Exxon deal is quite unlike the Hershey/Mondelez deal, in that IOC is the ONLY place that Exxon can realistically find the gas to support expansion of PNGLNG. If, by happy chance, the NO votes win, Exxon has plenty of room to sweeten the deal while still stealing IOCs assets for a song. If NO wins, then Exxon need not be constrained by having to have a superior bid to the OSH/Total deal and can then simply put an all-share offer on the table, without any contingencies. If they put it in the range of $65-75, that bid would get passed with no problems, in my opinion.

[thg]

[/quote]

...

Additionally, IOC/Exxon deal is quite unlike the Hershey/Mondelez deal, in that IOC is the ONLY place that Exxon can realistically find the gas to support expansion of PNGLNG. If, by happy chance, the NO votes win, Exxon has plenty of room to sweeten the deal while still stealing IOCs assets for a song. If NO wins, then Exxon need not be constrained by having to have a superior bid to the OSH/Total deal and can then simply put an all-share offer on the table, without any contingencies. If they put it in the range of $65-75, that bid would get passed with no problems, in my opinion.

[/quote]

In my opinion, you are quite right.

[Putncalls]

I think Gator might want to consider the context of rising energy prices and the overblown response to the fracking glut along with the transportation costs to Asia.

[thg]

I think Gator might want to consider the context of rising energy prices and the overblown response to the fracking glut along with the transportation costs to Asia.

Puts, you are correct. These issues significantly limit XOM's choices. We have what XOM want, their opening bid was as it true in all negotiations, a simple probe that is used to start testing the negotiation parameters. I am certain that XOM were shocked when their probe was accepted and the agreement signed.

[Putncalls]

It's not that simple. There is this big question about recoverable gas. If there isn't 10Tish IOC has no money.

[thg]

It's not that simple. There is this big question about recoverable gas. If there isn't 10Tish IOC has no money.

Have you noticed that all the way up until a swift sale was desired, the estimates were increasing and 10T was stated to be the new mid point by Mr. Hession himself, and then when an urgent sale was determined to be required the numbers crashed?

Now it seems that only the people who are best served by a low estimate are stating that the estimate is low, and are assigning the previous estimates to the imagination of Mr. Mulacek.

[Putncalls]

Please!!! No estimates changed by any significant amount in many years. The market isn't buying the GLJ estimate and IOC is not defending it.

[Gator]

I think Gator might want to consider the context of rising energy prices and the overblown response to the fracking glut along with the transportation costs to Asia.

All that and plus a second bid (the first being from OSH) and InterOil (up 56% YTD)  yet is still only worth less than $2.5 billion.  Exxon pays out $3.1 Billion a quarter in dividends.  Who do you really think is in a better position to play hard ball?  If you vote no you better have a bunch of puts to hedge your position.

[Palm]

Exactly right Gator. This isn't Exxon's first rodeo and they know their options well. IMO should a No vote come they will wait longer and so will Total. People keep talking about higher energy prices like they do about the Fed raising interest rates, the inevitable inflation uptick, rising wages, etc. But none of it is happening. Or at least anytime soon. Not many people in much of a hurry to do anything these days.

And if Exxon/Total decide to wait, pps will slide. 11% will look like nothing IMO.