CRP Value

[petrengr1]

Indicated CRP value based on the three latest certification numbers:

GCA 2016   6.8 TCFe  (6.8 - 6.2) x $7.07/TCFe=$4.24/sh or stock price of $49.24/sh

NSAI 2016   6.06 TCFe (6.08 – 6.2) = less than zero ...For our purposes $0/sh or stock price of $45/sh

GLJ 2016    7.8 TCFe (7.8 - 6.2) x  $7.07/TCFe = $11.31/sh  or stock price of $56.31/sh

Average of the three most recent certification numbers: 6.89TCFe   (6.89 –6.2) x $7.07 = $4.88/sh or a stock price of $49.88.

The stock is trading at ($48.02) less than all of these estimates except NSAI.

For what it is worth!!!

[wapitidropiti]

Indicated CRP value based on the three latest certification numbers:

GCA 2016   6.8 TCFe  (6.8 - 6.2) x $7.07/TCFe=$4.24/sh or stock price of $49.24/sh

NSAI 2016   6.06 TCFe (6.08 – 6.2) = less than zero ...For our purposes $0/sh or stock price of $45/sh

GLJ 2016    7.8 TCFe (7.8 - 6.2) x  $7.07/TCFe = $11.31/sh  or stock price of $56.31/sh

Average of the three most recent certification numbers: 6.89TCFe   (6.89 –6.2) x $7.07 = $4.88/sh or a stock price of $49.88.

The stock is trading at ($48.02) less than all of these estimates except NSAI.

For what it is worth!!!

Hi Pet

Could they still be drilling A7?

[petrengr1]

Indicated CRP value based on the three latest certification numbers:

GCA 2016   6.8 TCFe  (6.8 - 6.2) x $7.07/TCFe=$4.24/sh or stock price of $49.24/sh

NSAI 2016   6.06 TCFe (6.08 – 6.2) = less than zero ...For our purposes $0/sh or stock price of $45/sh

GLJ 2016    7.8 TCFe (7.8 - 6.2) x  $7.07/TCFe = $11.31/sh  or stock price of $56.31/sh

Average of the three most recent certification numbers: 6.89TCFe   (6.89 –6.2) x $7.07 = $4.88/sh or a stock price of $49.88.

The stock is trading at ($48.02) less than all of these estimates except NSAI.

For what it is worth!!!

Hi Pet

Could they still be drilling A7?

Yes, they could still be drilling but I think there is no hope of finding the Antelope pay zone. They will only be drilling to look for a deeper prospect (Antelope Deep) or drilling a sidetrack to the East to try to get back into the Antelope Field.

[Li'loilady]

Yep, this is the question of the hour.

Will they include or use the GLJ 7.8?  I wouldn't think so because it's not on the list of 5 resource evaluation companies to be used per agreement.  Given the, obviously, new set of data they had to work with, it may well be that GLJ was still its usual generous self.

If A-7 is declared a duster in the end, will they even do another certification?  Will they simply use the July,2016 GCA/ NSAI 6.43 and call it a day?

If they do recertify, using 2 of the remaining 3 agreed upon companies, I suspect they will be equally as conservative as the OSH certifiers.

Cert. of 6.43 Tcfe = $46.63  (rounded up!)

[johnwgrant]

We (IOC shareholders) deserve an explanation for GLJ changing their estimate for 10+ TCFe to 7.8 TCFe - and it had better make sense !!! Not just GLJ was super optimistic way back then....

[bdahl385]

We (IOC shareholders) deserve an explanation for GLJ changing their estimate for 10+ TCFe to 7.8 TCFe - and it had better make sense !!! Not just GLJ was super optimistic way back then....

I totally agree with you John. You can bet your last dollar that had the appraiser found cause to raise the field estimate from 7.8TCFe to 10TCFe+, there would have been an immediate press release and IOC officers high fiving themselves over this outstanding resource increase that they would take full credit for.  Now that it went the other way, I don't see how IOC cannot consider this a "material event" and have full disclosure with like you said "provide a detailed answer that makes sense" as to why the 30% cut.

[Stavros]

It seems to me that Gas In Place stayed the same while the Recovery Factor was hammered.

Perhaps I'm wrong?

If there's real data to back up the change to Water Drive, they should provide the data in detail; chapter and verse.

HOWEVER, if it's because GLJ was INSTRUCTED to change their professional opinion, then we know it's another attempt at manipulation.