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After 8 years of being an IOC shareholder, I have sold all of my shares and am moving on. I have patiently waited for good things to happen with no success. Before I go, I do have few observations and opinions I would like to share. Take them for what they're worth.
1. The game has been rigged and the end result is already determined. The deal will pass the vote and everyone still holding shares will get a measly $45 a share in Exxon shares. There are nowhere near enough "No" votes to stop it. If by some freak event, the vote is "No"', I would not be at all surprised if Exxon and Total don't sit back and watch IOC implode. We are low on cash and paying out $100 million in cancellation fees would not help.
2. The CRP payment is going to be either $0 or less than $5 a share. The complete failure of Ant-7 and the "updated" GLJ reserve estimates have convinced me that neither Exxon or Total is really interested in a high number - now. In a couple of years, when it doesn't affect IOC shareholders, a improved number it will suddenly appear.
3. I will not be sending "Thank You" cards to Phil. All his court case did was cost us money. IOC shareholders are sitting on their shares that are making NOTHING. If the deal would have closed earlier, we all would had Exxon shares that would have appreciated nearly 10% since then. If Exxon continues to climb, the loss is even worse. At least by getting out now, I get a slightly higher sale number and the opportunity to invest in a market that, at least for now, seems to have upward potential.
4. I think the No - dissent vote is going nowhere. It is difficult to convince someone that an asset I am trying to sell is worth considerably more than anyone has offered to pay recently. It would be one thing to convince the court if we had a line of suitors ready to buy. IOC does not. Even Total was unwilling to step up the game. All that said, if I am right about the CRP payment, what could it hurt?
i wish you all well. I will miss Pet's thoughtful posts as well as many others. I will continue to watch with great interest. And I will sleep better a night!
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Thanks for your contributions and good luck Crippsfl!
["I will not be sending "Thank You" cards to Phil. All his court case did was cost us money. IOC shareholders are sitting on their shares that are making NOTHING. If the deal would have closed earlier, we all would had Exxon shares that would have appreciated nearly 10% since then. If Exxon continues to climb, the loss is even worse. At least by getting out now, I get a slightly higher sale number and the opportunity to invest in a market that, at least for now, seems to have upward potential."]
While technically you're right, however:
-
This is only with the benefit of hindsight
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As you yourself argue, the game was rigged. Somebody had to stand up to it, and Phil did a pretty good job, scoring a fairly unlikely victory in the process.
-
He may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, this isn't over yet.
Good luck!
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'Crippsfl' pid='78707' datel Wrote:
After 8 years of being an IOC shareholder, I have sold all of my shares and am moving on. I have patiently waited for good things to happen with no success. Before I go, I do have few observations and opinions I would like to share. Take them for what they're worth.
1. The game has been rigged and the end result is already determined. The deal will pass the vote and everyone still holding shares will get a measly $45 a share in Exxon shares. There are nowhere near enough "No" votes to stop it. If by some freak event, the vote is "No"', I would not be at all surprised if Exxon and Total don't sit back and watch IOC implode. We are low on cash and paying out $100 million in cancellation fees would not help.
2. The CRP payment is going to be either $0 or less than $5 a share. The complete failure of Ant-7 and the "updated" GLJ reserve estimates have convinced me that neither Exxon or Total is really interested in a high number - now. In a couple of years, when it doesn't affect IOC shareholders, a improved number it will suddenly appear.
3. I will not be sending "Thank You" cards to Phil. All his court case did was cost us money. IOC shareholders are sitting on their shares that are making NOTHING. If the deal would have closed earlier, we all would had Exxon shares that would have appreciated nearly 10% since then. If Exxon continues to climb, the loss is even worse. At least by getting out now, I get a slightly higher sale number and the opportunity to invest in a market that, at least for now, seems to have upward potential.
4. I think the No - dissent vote is going nowhere. It is difficult to convince someone that an asset I am trying to sell is worth considerably more than anyone has offered to pay recently. It would be one thing to convince the court if we had a line of suitors ready to buy. IOC does not. Even Total was unwilling to step up the game. All that said, if I am right about the CRP payment, what could it hurt?
i wish you all well. I will miss Pet's thoughtful posts as well as many others. I will continue to watch with great interest. And I will sleep better a night!
Cripps- Well stated. Afraid there will not be any more "thoughtful posts" from Pet after today. I sold all of my shares yesterday. I don't have much hope for the shares to increase from here.
1. GCA Resource estimate 6.8 TCFe
2. NSAI Resource estimate 6.06 TCFe
3. Average of the two above estimates 6.43 TCFe which is what OilSearch used with the IPI investors.
4. The New GLJ resource estimate is 7.8 TCFe.
5. Average of the three estimates is 6.9 TCFe
6. Exxon will pay $7.07/TCFe above 6.2 TCFe. (6.9 - 6.20) x$7.07 = $4.95/sh for the CRP
7. By selling yesterday I got $2.50/share for the CRP value. I might have lost $2.45/share by selling too early. Or more if the estimate comes in much higher. At this point I do not expect it to come in much higher, if any, and it could come in lower. A risk I am not willing to take. I think, given the few months that it will take to get the CRP, my money will be better invested elsewhere.
8. I have been wrong about as much as I have been right over the last 6+ years. My worst mistake was believing what IOC told us. I was mainly just interpreting what they said for you. I hope I was not responsible for any of you losing money. It is the end of a bad dream. I have enjoyed writing for you and wish you all the very best.
Pet
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Pet, we all owe you a lot of gratitude as you've been great in explaining complex concepts and resource information to lay people like me. Always balanced and fair, many of these articles remain true gems, like your takedown of the deal.
I understand your reasons for leaving and I'm sure everybody will share my feeling that your posts will be really missed, so many thanks to you and good luck!
I have one last question though, I might have missed if you already commented upon the curious new GLJ resource estimates, are there any valid technical reason for these?
Kind regards,
Admin.
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'admin' pid='78711' datel Wrote:
Pet, we all owe you a lot of gratitude as you've been great in explaining complex concepts and resource information to lay people like me. Always balanced and fair, many of these articles remain true gems, like your takedown of the deal.
I understand your reasons for leaving and I'm sure everybody will share my feeling that your posts will be really missed, so many thanks to you and good luck!
I have one last question though, I might have missed if you already commented upon the curious new GLJ resource estimates, are there any valid technical reason for these?
Kind regards,
Admin.
I really have no explanation as to why GLJ changed their number. They were supposedly using data through Antelope-6, but I do not see how any of the new data from Antelope-4, Antelope-5 or Antelope-6 could have doen anything but increase their previous estimate of 10+ TCFe. They may have been influenced by one or more of the partners i.e. IOC, OSH or Total. Maybe even Exxon. IOC will not be sending them any more business.
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["I really have no explanation as to why GLJ changed their number. They were supposedly using data through Antelope-6, but I do not see how any of the new data from Antelope-4, Antelope-5 or Antelope-6 could have doen anything but increase their previous estimate of 10+ TCFe. They may have been influenced by one or more of the partners i.e. IOC, OSH or Total. Maybe even Exxon. IOC will not be sending them any more business."]
Yea, that is what I was afraid off, thanks anyway.
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'petrengr1' pid='78710' datel Wrote:
'Crippsfl' pid='78707' datel Wrote:
After 8 years of being an IOC shareholder, I have sold all of my shares and am moving on. I have patiently waited for good things to happen with no success. Before I go, I do have few observations and opinions I would like to share. Take them for what they're worth.
1. The game has been rigged and the end result is already determined. The deal will pass the vote and everyone still holding shares will get a measly $45 a share in Exxon shares. There are nowhere near enough "No" votes to stop it. If by some freak event, the vote is "No"', I would not be at all surprised if Exxon and Total don't sit back and watch IOC implode. We are low on cash and paying out $100 million in cancellation fees would not help.
2. The CRP payment is going to be either $0 or less than $5 a share. The complete failure of Ant-7 and the "updated" GLJ reserve estimates have convinced me that neither Exxon or Total is really interested in a high number - now. In a couple of years, when it doesn't affect IOC shareholders, a improved number it will suddenly appear.
3. I will not be sending "Thank You" cards to Phil. All his court case did was cost us money. IOC shareholders are sitting on their shares that are making NOTHING. If the deal would have closed earlier, we all would had Exxon shares that would have appreciated nearly 10% since then. If Exxon continues to climb, the loss is even worse. At least by getting out now, I get a slightly higher sale number and the opportunity to invest in a market that, at least for now, seems to have upward potential.
4. I think the No - dissent vote is going nowhere. It is difficult to convince someone that an asset I am trying to sell is worth considerably more than anyone has offered to pay recently. It would be one thing to convince the court if we had a line of suitors ready to buy. IOC does not. Even Total was unwilling to step up the game. All that said, if I am right about the CRP payment, what could it hurt?
i wish you all well. I will miss Pet's thoughtful posts as well as many others. I will continue to watch with great interest. And I will sleep better a night!
Cripps- Well stated. Afraid there will not be any more "thoughtful posts" from Pet after today. I sold all of my shares yesterday. I don't have much hope for the shares to increase from here.
1. GCA Resource estimate 6.8 TCFe
2. NSAI Resource estimate 6.06 TCFe
3. Average of the two above estimates 6.43 TCFe which is what OilSearch used with the IPI investors.
4. The New GLJ resource estimate is 7.8 TCFe.
5. Average of the three estimates is 6.9 TCFe
6. Exxon will pay $7.07/TCFe above 6.2 TCFe. (6.9 - 6.20) x$7.07 = $4.95/sh for the CRP
7. By selling yesterday I got $2.50/share for the CRP value. I might have lost $2.45/share by selling too early. Or more if the estimate comes in much higher. At this point I do not expect it to come in much higher, if any, and it could come in lower. A risk I am not willing to take. I think, given the few months that it will take to get the CRP, my money will be better invested elsewhere.
8. I have been wrong about as much as I have been right over the last 6+ years. My worst mistake was believing what IOC told us. I was mainly just interpreting what they said for you. I hope I was not responsible for any of you losing money. It is the end of a bad dream. I have enjoyed writing for you and wish you all the very best.
Pet
Cripps: Thanks for your thoughtful and clear post on what is winding up to be a very sad ending for IOC shareholders.
Pet: Thank you very much for all of the very insightful and astute posts over the years. Your voice has always been one of reason and intelligence and I know that I speak for everyone in saying that our understanidng of what was going on with IOC would not have been half as clear without your incisive posts. I've been contemplating making the same decision as you have just made, and now my reluctance has been eased by your decision. The best of wishes to you in the coming year and I'll very much miss anticipaitng your insight on events.
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I got out 6 months ago. Thrilled that I did. I hope you all do the rest. I would love to see this company go under, taking all of the liars and criminals down with it. You might ask yourself at this point "what is the payoff?" If you are still asking that question after all this time, you define insanity. This stock is a piece of corrupt garbage. So is PNG and it won't shock me to look up one day and see that IOC has gone into BK and the stock price in single digits. In fact I reiterate that I hope that happens.
Good luck, don't be fools.
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2126 - Thanks for your response to Pet . I would like to echo your words ....yes, I am one of those who agrees with you .
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'jdeo1969' pid='78715' dateline='<a href="tel:1482947 Wrote:I got out 6 months ago. Thrilled that I did. I hope you all do the rest. I would love to see this company go under, taking all of the liars and criminals down with it. You might ask yourself at this point "what is the payoff?" If you are still asking that question after all this time, you define insanity. This stock is a piece of corrupt garbage. So is PNG and it won't shock me to look up one day and see that IOC has gone into BK and the stock price in single digits. In fact I reiterate that I hope that happens. Good luck, don't be fools.
Although I am out at $47.50 and do believe that is the best we can expect, I do not wish that the company goes under as you do. Sure, it would be a fitting end for MH and his minions', however, alot of other investors would be hurt as well. Not a fan of "collateral damage". If things get better for investors who wait, I will happy for them. For me, it just isn't worth the risk.
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