OPEC, for some quiet moments..

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The oil-trading boom that cushioned the profits of Royal Dutch Shell and BP through the price slump of 2015 and early 2016 is over. BP said on Tuesday it made a "small" loss trading oil in the fourth quarter, while Shell last week said trading profits "flattened" in late 2016. The fall-off in trading contributed to worse-than-expected fourth-quarter profits at Europe’s largest oil and gas producers.

BP and Shell profits slump after OPEC output cuts end oil-trading boom

While oil drillers in U.S. shale basins are starting to see business come back, their offshore brethren will have to wait for prices to surge well above $60/bbl.

Offshore drillers still seeking recovery enjoyed by shale

Nigeria’s progress in curbing militant attacks hasn’t much boosted its oil output. While that’s bad news for a country mired in its  worst economic slump in 25 years, it’s making life easier for fellow OPEC members. Africa’s largest economy was pumping about 1.5 MMbpd late last month, 30% below what it was hoping to achieve and only a modest recovery from an almost 30-year low of 1.4 million in August. While peace efforts have curbed the frequency of attacks in the oil-rich Niger River delta, the Forcados export terminal, the country’s third largest, remains closed and shipments are down at many others.

Nigeria's struggle to boost oil output a good sign for OPEC

The U.S. will pump the most crude next year since 1970 as domestic producers benefit from OPEC supply cuts. Domestic output will average 9.53 MMbpd in 2018, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday. Shale explorers are benefiting from prices that rose above $50/bbl after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other nations agreed to trim production in an effort to ease a global supply glut.

U.S. oil output heads toward 48-year high as shale surge resumes

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Oil prices caught in a trance above $50/bbl are set for a jolt as evidence on pledged output curbs from OPEC and other producing nations hits the market over two sessions. The International Energy Agency and OPEC will publish their monthly oil market reports on Friday and Monday, respectively, which will provide their first full-month production and inventory data since the group’s decision to cut supply took effect on Jan. 1. Tanker-tracker Petro-Logistics SA estimated late last month that OPEC had implemented about 75% of cuts, while a Bloomberg survey predicts the group is about 60% of the way toward its target.

Oil’s sedate market poised for data shot on OPEC-led cuts

Qatar Petroleum (QP) is the hidden giant of the global energy industry, overshadowed by its neighbor Saudi Aramco. Yet, the country’s colossal natural gas resources allow the state-run company to pump more oil and gas than Rosneft PJSC or Exxon Mobil Corp. After almost two decades of breakneck growth, the company needs to change tack. QP plans to expand abroad as domestic crude output declines and the government bars new drilling in the offshore North Field, home to the gas that made Qatar the world’s leading supplier of liquefied natural gas.

An energy giant bigger than Exxon in the shadow of Saudi Aramco

Total SA raised its dividend by 1.6% and said it may give the go-ahead for almost a dozen new projects in the next 18 months after fourth-quarter profit beat analysts’ estimates. “We’re going to propose to increase the dividend as we have confidence in the future,” CEO Patrick Pouyanne told reporters in Paris. “My goal is to launch new projects to prepare the future, while remaining disciplined and cutting costs further because crude prices might drift lower.”

Total lifts dividend, plans growth as profits beat estimates

OPEC and other major crude-producing nations may need to extend output cuts into the second half of the year to re-balance the market, oil ministers for Iran and fellow group member Qatar said. Global oil supplies have decreased as OPEC and producers outside the group comply with a six-month deal to curb output that took effect on Jan. 1, Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed Al Sada said Wednesday at a news briefing in Doha. “It’s too early to make a judgement,” he said, adding that markets may re-balance in the third quarter.

OPEC ministers don’t rule out renewing oil cut to balance market

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Record prices for drilling rights in the Permian basin, the most fertile U.S. shale field, are prompting oil companies and private equity investors to look elsewhere for the next big gushers. Explorers eager to tap the basin’s mile-thick stack of oil-soaked rock layers have paid as much as $60,000 an acre. That marks a 50-fold explosion in deal prices over four years, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd. It also pushes the cost 10 times higher than in the Bakken of North Dakota.

At $60,000 an acre, Permian may be too ritzy as crude rises

OPEC achieved the best compliance rate in its history at the outset of an accord to clear the oil glut, a plan that’s being supported by surprising strength in demand, the IEA said. OPEC implemented 90% of promised output cuts in January, the first month of its agreement, as key member Saudi Arabia reduced production by even more than it had committed, the agency said. Resilient oil demand is aiding OPEC’s bid to re-balance world markets, growing more than expected last year and poised to do so again in 2017.

OPEC attains record 90% of output cuts as demand grows

A proposed U.S. border-adjustment tax would make fuels that provide half the world’s energy cheaper -- for everyone except Americans. That’s the conclusion of Goldman Sachs analysts including Damien Courvalin. A tax like the one being discussed in the U.S. Congress would cause the dollar to appreciate, driving down the price of coal and liquefied natural gas, which are priced globally in the U.S. currency, they said in a Feb. 9 report.

Goldman sees cheaper energy from border tax, but not in U.S.

Oil rose as the International Energy Agency said OPEC had achieved record initial compliance of 90% with their production cuts accord, while demand grew faster than expected. Futures advanced as much as 2.1% in New York. In the first month of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ agreement, key member Saudi Arabia reduced production by even more than it had committed, while higher demand is aiding the group’s bid to re-balance world markets, the IEA said.

Oil jumps as IEA sees record OPEC cuts compliance, rising demand

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There are limits to investors’ love affair with OPEC. After unprecedented optimism that OPEC countries will manage to ease a global supply glut, money managers reduced their bets on rising WTI prices for the first time in a month. While the group and other major exporters are pumping less crude, U.S. inventories and production are on the rise, and shale drillers keep adding rigs. The U.S. benchmark has traded mostly between $50 and $55/bbl for the last two months.

Investor honeymoon with OPEC falters as U.S shale drilling booms

Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it cut oil production by the most in more than eight years, going beyond its obligations under a deal to balance world markets. The kingdom reported that it reduced output by 717,600 bpd last month to 9.748 MMbpd, according to a monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The group’s own analysts, who compile data from external sources, estimated that Saudi Arabia made a smaller 496,000 bpd-cut -- in line with last year’s supply agreement.

Saudi Arabia cuts oil output by most in eight years

OPEC is urging oil suppliers outside the group to fulfill their commitments to cut output, and crude prices will rise once producers demonstrate better compliance with their agreement to clear a global glut, Kuwait’s oil minister said. The OPEC countries, which agreed to the cuts with 11 other oil-producing nations in December, is 92% compliant with its pledge to reduce output by 1.2 MMbpd, Oil Minister Essam Al-Marzooq told reporters Monday in Kuwait City. Non-OPEC producers are complying at a lower rate of more than 50%, he said.

Kuwait sees OPEC leaning on non-members to cut more oil output

For the first three weeks of this year, gasoline demand has stood at just 8.19 million barrels a day, or about 7.7% below the same period last year, said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service. If the gasoline demand figure for the full month of January falls to less than 8.2 million barrels a day, “it would be the lowest figure for any month since January 2012, when high prices and a softer economy were part of the mix,” he said. Lower consumption of gasoline at this time of year isn’t a surprise, but the size of the decline is.

Gasoline prices may fall for another month as demand heads to 5-year low - MarketWatch

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Nigeria said it lost out on as much as $100 billion in revenue last year as attacks by militants in the oil-rich Niger Delta cut crude output to a record low. Production fell by 1 MMbpd to 1.2 MMbpd at the peak of the attacks, Emmanuel Kachikwu, minister of state for petroleum, said Tuesday in a video-clip on his Facebook page.

Nigeria loses up to $100 billion in revenue as attacks cut oil

OPEC may be getting all the credit for reviving the oil market, but it had a little help. While OPEC did spur a 28% recovery late last year by announcing production cuts, supply isn’t the only factor buoying the market: demand repeatedly beat expectations in 2016, and is set to surprise again. Global oil consumption will surpass average growth rates for a third year in 2017 amid continued economic expansion in China and India, according to data from the IEA. With all the attention on OPEC, the role of demand in keeping crude prices above $50/bbl has been overlooked, according to consultants Energy Aspects Ltd.

OPEC wins plaudits for oil recovery, but economy lends a hand

EIA’s recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) Reference case projects that U.S. tight oil production will increase to more than 6 MMbpd in the coming decade, making up most of total U.S. oil production. After 2026, tight oil production remains relatively constant through 2040 in the Reference case as tight oil development moves into less productive areas and as well productivity decreases. Side cases with different resource and technology assumptions result in different tight oil and total U.S. oil production projections.

Tight oil expected to make up most of U.S. oil production increase through 2040, EIA says

President Donald Trump has overturned an Obama-era anti-corruption rule that would have forced oil, gas and mining companies to disclose payments to foreign governments, becoming the first president in 16 years to take advantage of a law that allows him to rescind a predecessor’s regulations.  Trump on Tuesday signed a congressional resolution to repeal a Securities and Exchange Commission disclosure rule that was called for in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. It’s likely just the start: Congress is considering a number of other measures, including ones to overturn Obama administration rules protecting streams from mountaintop mining and prevent people with serious mental-health problems from buying guns. “This is one of many,” Trump told reporters at a signing ceremony. “We have many more left. And we’re bringing back jobs big league.”

Trump repeal of Obama energy regulation signals more to come

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Special edition:

On the jungle-covered hills of southern Papua New Guinea, 62-year-old geologist Peter Botten is seeking to engineer a $5 billion deal that would cement the country’s emerging status as one of the world’s most lucrative gas exporters. As managing director of Oil Search Ltd., the British-born petroleum industry veteran is trying to forge an agreement between two of the world’s biggest oil companies, ExxonMobil Corp. and Total SA, as they weigh plans for further expansion of liquefied natural gas projects in the southwestern Pacific nation.

Exxon's Pacific Gas Partner Courts Total to Unlock PNG Riches - Bloomberg

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Back to the regular issue..

Explorers look set to drill a record number of wells in Norway’s Arctic waters this year, undeterred by oil prices apparently stuck below $60/bbl. After making a discovery of as much as 100 MMboe in the Barents Sea, Lundin Petroleum said that it wants to squeeze two more exploration wells into its program this year, even if it means hiring an additional rig. That could push the total number of wells in the area to 16, two more than the record in 2014, according to forecasts from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, the industry regulator, and Rystad Energy, an Oslo-based consulting firm.

What oil crisis? Arctic drilling off Norway set for record

Kuwait is sticking with plans to add half a MMbpd of oil-production capacity as it prepares for the eventual expiration of the output quotas OPEC adopted to help drain a global oversupply, the head of Kuwait Oil Co. said. State-run KOC plans to raise the Gulf nation’s capacity from its current level of 3.15 MMbopd, CEO Jamal Jaafar said in an interview in Kuwait City. The company, which is responsible for most of Kuwait’s domestic crude production, will add capacity even if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decides to extend the supply cuts beyond June, he said.

Kuwait boosts oil capacity to open taps once OPEC's cuts expire

The U.S. will pump the most crude next year since 1970 as domestic producers benefit from OPEC supply cuts. Domestic output will average 9.53 MMbpd in 2018, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday. Shale explorers are benefiting from prices that rose above $50/bbl after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other nations agreed to trim production in an effort to ease a global supply glut.

U.S. oil output heads toward 48-year high as shale surge resumes

U.S. crude exports are poised to surpass production in four OPEC nations in 2017 and may grow even more if President Donald Trump honors pledges to ease drilling restrictions and maximize output. The world’s largest oil-consuming country could sell as much as 800,000 bpd of crude overseas this year, according to four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s more than OPEC producers Libya, Qatar, Ecuador and Gabon each pumped in December. The U.S. exported 527,000 bpd in the first 11 months of 2016, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show.

U.S. may export more oil in 2017 than four OPEC nations produce

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Iraqi crude shipments rose 3% in the first half of February even after OPEC’s second-biggest producer agreed to participate in global output cuts to mop up a glut that has put pressure on oil prices. Exports increased to 3.93 MMbopd in the first 15 days of the month, 122,000 bpd more than the average for all of January, according to port-agent reports and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Shipments from the southern Iraqi port of Basra grew by 10%, while sales by the Kurdish Regional Government in the north of the country were up 13%, the data show.

Iraq's February oil sales accelerate despite OPEC effort to cut

As hedge funds and money managers place record trades on a rally in oil, the price itself has fallen asleep. Logic dictates that something should give. Here are five charts examining the unprecedented speculative build-up and what the market’s next turn might be.

Frenzied betting, sleeping market: Something must give in oil

Oil companies’ big bet on demand in their fastest-growing market is getting less lucrative. Energy companies are investing billions of dollars over the next several years in new and existing refineries across Asia, where consumption of refined fuels like gasoline, jet fuel and petrochemicals has been increasing more rapidly than in any other

Oil’s Hottest Market Adds to Fuel Glut - WSJ

Early evidence of actual cuts seems to show that the kingdom has resumed its old swing producer role, doing more than its share to cut output in the hope of rebalancing the oil market. But there's more to it than that. Data published on Friday by the International Energy Agency show Saudi Arabia reduced its output in January by more than required under the November 2016 agreement. A cut of 560,000 barrels a day from the October baseline level was 14 percent more than the kingdom's pledged reduction of 490,000 barrels. That certainly looks like the behavior of a swing producer.

OPEC's Amazing and Shortlived Compliance - Bloomberg Gadfly

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U.S. oil prices edged higher Thursday as growing U.S. inventories were offset by reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was prepared to consider extending supply cuts. Light, sweet crude for March delivery settled up 25 cents, or 0.5%, at $53.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, lost 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $55.65 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Oil Gains on Possible Extension to Production Cuts - WSJ

Libya’s crude production exceeded 700,000 barrels a day and is due to keep rising as working conditions in the conflict-ridden country improve for international companies like Eni SpA and Total SA, an official from the state oil company said.

Libya Crude Output Rises as Work Conditions for Big Oil Improve - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia has led the way among major energy exporters in cutting oil production. At the same time, the kingdom is adding to global supply in a surprising way. The deal to cut oil output has been a success, at least for its first month, largely because there was little cheating and because Saudi Arabia cut production by 500,000 barrels

How Saudis Cut Oil Output Without Really Cutting - WSJ

Natural gas fell to new lows after storage levels failed to shrink as quickly as analysts expected, a bearish signal that the market may be oversupplied in the months to come.

Natural Gas Falls to Nearly-Three-Month Low - WSJ

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U.S. drillers pushed ahead on the biggest surge in oil drilling since 2012 as companies take advantage of oil prices that have held steady above $50 for almost three months. Rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose this week by 6 to 597, according to Baker Hughes data reported Friday. Shale drillers have added 72 rigs since 2017 began, the best start in five years. Natural gas rigs rose by 4 to 153, bringing the total for oil and gas up by 10 to 751.

Biggest U.S. drilling surge since 2012 has producers cashing in

EnQuest has announced that the Kraken Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel arrived at the field, in the UK North Sea, on Monday, Feb. 13. The hook-up of the submerged turret production (STP) buoy mooring system to the FPSO was completed on Feb. 15, and a full rotation test performed so that the vessel is now on station and securely moored.

Kraken FPSO hooked up, on track for delivery of first oil

A province governed by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi for 13 years is impeding his plans to promote clean energy. Modi’s effort to make liquefied natural gas more affordable, by halving its import tax in the government’s annual budget Feb. 1, is being scuttled by the withdrawal of tax benefits by the western Indian state of Gujarat, through which 90% of the LNG used in India passes.

LNG fights a losing battle in India as taxes weigh on demand

On the jungle-covered hills of southern Papua New Guinea, 62-year-old geologist Peter Botten is seeking to engineer a $5-billion deal that would cement the country’s emerging status as one of the world’s most lucrative gas exporters. As managing director of Oil Search Ltd., the British-born petroleum industry veteran is trying to forge an agreement between two of the world’s biggest oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Total SA, as they weigh plans for further expansion of LNG projects in the southwestern Pacific nation.

Oil Search weighs plans for further LNG expansion via possible Exxon, Total deal