Brexit

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The Bank of England has warned that 10,000 jobs could leave the City on “day one” after the UK leaves the EU. Sam Woods, a deputy governor of the Bank, also admitted that forecasts of 75,000 job losses over the long-term were “plausible” at an appearance before peers on the Lords EU financial affairs sub-committee. Woods runs the regulatory arm of the Bank and has already asked 400 banks and financial firms for their contingency plans in the event of hard Brexit. He said some of those plans were being put in place – with banks reserving school places and hiring office space – but that this would get under way “in earnest” in the first quarter of the year. The estimate of 75,000 job losses was made by consultants Oliver Wyman, which also warned that up to £10bn in tax revenue could be lost if the UK was left to rely on World Trade Organisation rules and there was no transition period after March 2019 when the country leaves the EU.

City could lose 10,000 jobs on day of Brexit, says Bank of England | Politics | The Guardian

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Labour has criticised the arch-Eurosceptic MP John Redwood for “talking down Britain” after he recently wrote a column of financial advice in which he recommended investors “look further afield” because of the state of the UK economy. In the piece for the Financial Times, the Conservative MP – who has a £180,000 second job as chief global strategist for Charles Stanley – said the European Central Bank was promoting faster growth when the UK was seeing a squeeze on credit. “Mario Draghi, ECB president, is now doing whatever it takes, not just to rescue the euro but to promote a much-needed economic recovery,” he wrote. He also compared the US and Japan’s approach favourably to the UK’s.

John Redwood criticised over advice to pull money out of UK | Politics | The Guardian

Brexit risks being “the moment we finally failed as a great nation”, Theresa May’s policy adviser has warned, in an extraordinary attack. George Freeman said he now feared the troubled exit process would create an impoverished country, like “an old people’s home that couldn’t pay for itself”. “That I see as a very real prospect and it chills me to the bone,” the Tory MP and chairman of the Conservative Policy Forum told a conference. READ MORE Tory revolt could force U-turn over putting Brexit date into law “It is an extreme choice but I think that is the choice we face as a country and the question whether we as a generation rise to it and grip it.” In a good scenario, EU withdrawal would “unleash a entrepreneurship revolution” in Britain, leading to the exploration of money-spinning new technologies. But, Mr Freeman said, Brexit could be “the moment we finally failed as a great nation and became a second or third tier nation”. The comments came in a speech delivered to an economics conference staged by the IPPR think tank. They come the day after business leaders gave the Prime Minister a two-week deadline to break the deadlock in the Brexit talks, allowing them to move on to discussing future trade.

Brexit: Theresa May adviser warns EU withdrawal could be ‘the moment we finally failed as a great nation’ | The Independent

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Welcome to post-Brexit UK:

The University of Southampton said “post-Brexit strategy” justified paying its vice-chancellor £433,000 a year, after it emerged Sir Christopher Snowden is one of the country’s highest-paid university leaders. The announcement places Snowden and Southampton in the firing line over rising executive pay, after the resignation of the University of Bath’s vice-chancellor, Glynis Breakwell, after widespread criticism of her £468,000 pay. “World-class capable leaders are needed to ensure that the UK’s universities become one of the stars in the UK’s post-Brexit export strategy,” said Gill Rider, chair of the Southampton University’s council. “Sir Christopher brings breadth and depth of experience that is critical to Southampton’s long-term success.”

Southampton says post-Brexit strategy justifies vice-chancellor's £433,000 pay | Education | The Guardian

After 52 years in the UK, Anthony Bryan was shocked to be told he was in the country illegally and faced forced removal. Earlier this month he was sent to an immigration detention centre and booked by Home Office staff on a flight back to Jamaica, a country he left when he was eight and has not visited since. The case is the latest in an emerging scandal over the Home Office’s brutal treatment of a number of long-settled, retirement-age UK residents who are being aggressively pursued over their immigration status. Bryan’s MP, Kate Osamor, said these cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” and described the situation as barbaric.

'They don't tell you why': threatened with removal after 52 years in the UK | UK news | The Guardian

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Nearly all the possible trading relationships between Britain and the European Union following Brexit would be less favourable than staying in the European Union, according to an influential US think tank. The Rand Corporation study said the worst option would be a "no deal". That would leave the UK economy 4.9% poorer by 2029. "No deal" would also have a negative effect on the EU economy, but it would be "relatively minor". The report said that even a "soft Brexit" involving staying in the free market would not be as positive economically as staying in the EU.

Fears grow across the Atlantic over Brexit fallout - BBC News

Sir Keir Starmer has warned that MPs risk becoming “spectators” to an all-powerful executive government for the next 40 years, if Theresa May’s Brexit plans are approved unchanged. The Shadow Brexit Secretary said Ms May’s European Union (Withdrawal) Bill handed ministers sweeping powers to alter other pieces of legislation, from controls on the finance sector to protections for workers. The Independent revealed on Thursday that Ms May will grant MPs more time to scrutinise the bill in a bid to avoid a rebellion, with Tory backbenchers also concerned about the powers being granted to ministers.

Brexit: Parliament will be sidelined by Government for 40 years if Theresa May's withdrawal bill is passed, says Keir Starmer | The Independent

Just as there are a variety of different deals that could be struck between Britain and the EU, there are many ways in which Brexit talks might break down. Most assume a failure to agree the terms of divorce – the size of the financial settlement, or the role of the European court of justice – followed by a walkout by negotiators and no discussion at all on future trade arrangements. This would mean relying instead on non-EU treaties, such as shared commitments to the World Trade Organization and the Hague convention, to govern ongoing cross-border affairs. It is possible, however, to imagine a more amicable “agreed no deal”, in which divorce talks end with a limited settlement that plans for an orderly exit but is not sufficient for the EU to allow full-scale trade negotiations at this stage.

Brexit: what does 'no deal' mean and how bad could it get? | Politics | The Guardian

Britain's economy would be "booming" if not for Brexit, the Governor of the Bank of England has said.  Mark Carney said businesses were waiting for the outcome of Theresa May's negotiations with the EU before making investment decisions, which was slowing down economic growth. He said the bank's predictions for foreign investment in Britain was now 20 per cent lower than they estimated in the month before the referendum.  Speaking to Peston on Sunday, he said: "Since the referendum, what we're seeing is that business investment has picked up, but it hasn't picked up to any of the extent that one would have expected given how strong the world is, how easy financial conditions are, how high profitability is and how little spare capacity they have.

Britain 'would be booming' if it wasn't for Brexit, Mark Carney says

The snag is that for each extra year of transition we will have to pay membership fees to the EU of about £8bn. So a realistic transitional period could cost us a further £20-30bn. Add it all together, and you get £80bn.

Double your money, Theresa May – the true Brexit bill will be £80bn | Hugo Dixon | Opinion | The Guardian

The British government launched a new strategy for industry on Monday, aiming to intervene in key sectors to tackle weak productivity and bolster businesses to counter any new problems caused by Brexit.

UK launches plan for industry as Brexit looms, wins Merck investment

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Only last week the foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, reportedly gave a terse and pungent imprecation to diplomats who raised the issue of companies doubting his wisdom about the UK leaving the EU without a trade deal. “Fuck business,” Britain’s top diplomat replied undiplomatically.

The Guardian view on hyper-populism: it’s infecting politicians and technocrats | Editorial | Opinion | The Guardian

Britain’s looming departure from the European Union has led nearly half of big companies from the rest of the bloc to cut investment in the country, a poll of 800 executives released two years after the Brexit referendum found.

Half of EU business leaders cut UK investment over Brexit: survey | Reuters

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Investment in Britain's car industry has fallen by half, according to figures from the motoring sector. The Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) said that Brexit uncertainty was "thwarting" decisions by major car companies to put more money into UK factories. In the first six months of 2017, investment in new models and factory improvements stood at £647.4m. This year, the figure had fallen to £347.3m for the same period. The SMMT said this was lowest figure since the financial crisis. The trade body said that the government's "red lines" on Brexit and "conflicting messages" were working "directly against the interests of the UK automotive sector".

Brexit: Car investment slumps as 'uncertainty bites' - BBC News

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Staying in the single market and customs union means accepting all the rules and regulations that come with them — including freedom of movement. It would also mean no independent trade deals and large annual contributions to the EU budget. Known as “Norway Plus” in the Brexit patois, this is the dream option for Brussels. It is, essentially, the terms of the transition extended in perpetuity. But many in Brussels believe whatever May’s “red lines” in the negotiations — no freedom of movement, no European Court of Justice and no “vast” annual payments to Brussels — a full-scale British capitulation is under way. This is the reason the Norway Plus option is explicitly left on the table by Brussels despite repeated U.K. government warnings that it is a nonstarter. If London insists on sovereignty, “so be it” says the European Commission — but it must lose control of Northern Ireland. This is the only other option which protects the integrity of its market and the open border in Ireland. May has said “no U.K. prime minister” could agree such terms. The EU has offered two options, both equally unacceptable. Both mean a full-scale political crisis in the U.K., unless the EU compromises and allows some U.K. cherry-picking.

London’s Brexit time bomb is about to blow – POLITICO

Jaguar Land Rover has warned that a "bad" Brexit deal would hit its profits and threaten its £80bn investment plans. The UK's biggest carmaker, owned by India's Tata Motors, said its "heart and soul is in the UK". But it said that without frictionless trade its UK investment plans would be in "jeopardy". The warning comes ahead of a cabinet meeting to finalise a Brexit White Paper on Friday. Jaguar Land Rover chief executive Ralf Speth said: "A bad Brexit deal would cost Jaguar Land Rover more than £1.2bn profit each year. "As a result, we would have to drastically adjust our spending profile; we have spent around £50bn in the UK in the past five years - with plans for a further £80bn more in the next five. "This would be in jeopardy should we be faced with the wrong outcome."

Jaguar Land Rover boss: Brexit threatens £80bn UK investment - BBC News

Services are easily forgotten, as they offer no photogenic images of car factories, fishermen or farmers – just people at screens, technical drawing boards, in City trading rooms, or university teachers and other professionals selling their skills to Europe. International lawyers, auditors and others need EU validation for their qualifications with a services deal. And UK lorry drivers ferrying across the EU need a services deal to gain permits. The 26 million people working in British services create a massive £28bn-a-year trade surplus with the EU, while our goods, employing fewer, give us a deficit. With no services deal, barriers will be four times higher, a very hard-crash Brexit for the services sector. The Treasury relies on services to bring in a huge amount of its tax revenues. What hope for the NHS, housing, social care or schools with such a hefty loss in tax income?

Never mind cabinet power struggles – the Brexiteers’ vision is chilling | Polly Toynbee | Opinion | The Guardian

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Amazon made a bleak prediction about Brexit in a behind-closed-doors meeting with the UK government last Friday, according to The Times. Douglas Gurr, Amazon's UK country manager, told a meeting of business leaders that if Britain crashes out of the European Union without a trade deal, it will spark "civil unrest" within two weeks. The meeting was convened by Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, and The Times said Gurr's comments "stunned those present," with some disagreeing with his assessment... It would mean the country crashes out of Europe on World Trade Organization terms, which could create chaos in terms of Britain's food and medicine supplies, as well as people's ability to travel to countries in Europe by plane.

Amazon UK boss Doug Gurr warns Brexit could spark 'civil unrest' - Business Insider

A major study has revealed how British manufacturers that boost UK exports by £52bn a year have already suffered a major loss in both business and investment as a direct consequence of Brexit. The survey of around one thousand companies exporting industrial products found Brexit meant many have already seen export sales fall, some by up to 30 per cent. A sizeable chunk of the companies surveyed have indicated that investment had fallen as a result of the UK’s plan to quit the European Union, while others said they are bracing themselves for a shortage of skilled workers. The report, based on research carried out by the University of Sussex, delivers a chilling warning that companies currently in a supply chain or on a tender list with EU-based companies will likely lose contracts as a direct result of Brexit.

Third of UK export firms have already lost business directly due to Brexit | The Independent

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Article sums up all the ways the UK will be hurt in case of no Brexit deal, this is only one of these:

The no-deal notices published by the government reveal the extraordinary level of costs and bureaucracy that such a scenario would entail, as well as the chaos it would mean for Britain's borders. If there was no deal Britain would revert to "third country" status, and the government has detailed a long list of extra checks that firms exporting and importing to and from the EU would face.  Businesses would need to make customs declarations, pay tariffs on both imports and exports, and invest in expensive new computer systems to track goods.  "If the UK left the EU on 29 March 2019 without a deal, there would be immediate changes to the procedures that apply to businesses trading with the EU. It would mean that the free circulation of goods between the UK and EU would cease," the government said. Extra procedures are both timely and very expensive for businesses. Many British firms which export or import goods have warned that they would cease to operate very quickly under such a scenario.

How a no-deal Brexit could cripple Britain - Business Insider

The cabinet meets this morning as the tide seems to be turning in Theresa May’s favour. The hard Brexiteers’ tactic has blown up in their faces. They urged the prime minister to step up preparations for leaving the EU without a deal, to convince the EU that we would be prepared to walk away from the talks if we don’t get what we want.  Instead, those preparations succeeded only in frightening the living daylights out of the British public, which might help persuade them that any deal would be better than stockpiling medicines and lorries queueing from Dover to Birmingham.  Today’s special cabinet meeting on no-deal preparations will only intensify this new version of project fear – a project made all the more credible by being based on taking sensible precautions in case the Brexit talks collapse in failure.  Hence the problems faced by Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, as he was sent out to face the BBC this morning. He was one of those demanding more planning for no deal to strengthen our bargaining position, and now he is trying to reassure us that our mobile roaming charges will still be cheap after Brexit, but many of the 28 papers to be published today are likely to contain some alarming scenarios.

Theresa May’s plans for a no deal Brexit have turned out to be her best weapon | The Independent

Dominic Raab has been reprimanded by Michel Barnier after the EU’s chief negotiator discovered the British government had written to the 27 other member states asking for side negotiations on transport in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The Brexit secretary was confronted by Barnier during their most recent meeting in Brussels over correspondence sent in recent days to EU capitals by the Department for Transport. The letters had asked the member states to prepare to engage with the British government in side deals on aviation and haulage, to allow key trade flows to continue in the event of the UK and the EU failing to come to an agreement on leaving the union by 29 March 2019.

Barnier confronts Raab over discovery of Brexit no-deal letters to EU27 | Politics | The Guardian

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Meanwhile, Andrea Leadsom outbid them all when she dreamed of a future when there was “absolutely no regulation whatsoever – no minimum wage, no maternity or paternity rights, no unfair dismissal rights, no pension rights – for the smallest companies that are trying to get off the ground”... The original sin of the authors of Brexit was to refuse to admit that it must either bring a shuddering dislocation as Britain tore itself out of an integrated European economy or turn Britain into an EU vassal state that obeyed EU rules but had no say in their formulation. The greater dishonesty was that the EU referendum was never just about the EU. It was a howl of rage from Thatcherites, who cannot accept that their ideology failed, from the old against the young, and from all who could not make their peace with the sexual revolution of the 1960s, the environment science of the 1980s and the multiculturalism of the 2000s. Their leaders see the chance to abolish a modern world they neither like nor comprehend. Hence their fanaticism. Hence their determination to go for broke and tolerate no compromises.

The Brexit fanatics go for broke. This is their chance of counter-revolution | Nick Cohen | Opinion | The Guardian

The sticking point has been the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, which after Brexit will also become the border between the UK and the EU. Because of the island’s troubled history, both sides want to avoid a hard border with customs checks that could become a source of friction. The problem has been that since the prime minister promised in her Lancaster House speech to take Britain out of both the EU’s single market (to cease being an EU “rule-taker”) and the customs union (to allow it to strike its own trade deals around the world), customs and regulatory checks at the border are difficult to dodge. Ultimately, the border is supposed to become a non-issue under the terms of the comprehensive free trade agreement the two sides are expected to sign at some stage after Britain’s departure on 29 March next year.

Theresa May's Brexit deal: everything you need to know | Politics | The Guardian

A mysterious online advertising campaign attempting to whip up opposition to Theresa May’s Brexit plan has been uncovered by a parliamentary committee. The “sophisticated” campaign is estimated to have spent more than £250,000 in the last 10 months on Facebook adverts calling for the government to “chuck Chequers”. There is no information on who is behind the adverts or where the significant funding is coming from. The campaign uses micro-targeting to ask Facebook users to lobby their MP to oppose Ms May’s Chequers plan, which has been heavily criticised by Eurosceptics who claim it keeps Britain tied too closely to the EU after Brexit.

Theresa May's Chequers plan attacked by mysterious online advertising campaign | The Independent