Brexit

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Same old, same old..

Boris Johnson began his leadership campaign by making a promise he cannot deliver. “We will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal,” he said yesterday. He had to say it, because no candidate can expect to win the leadership election without such a pledge.  But I do not believe it is possible for any prime minister to take the UK out of the EU without a deal at the end of October. Johnson would be removed from office before he could do so. This may sound extreme, but it is a question of numbers.  The Conservatives with the DUP have a majority in the House of Commons of five, assuming Peterborough stays in opposition hands after the by-election the week after next. There are three Labour or former Labour MPs who support a no-deal exit: Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins and Graham Stringer.  That means it would take only six Conservative MPs to deprive Johnson of his majority. There are many more than six Tory MPs who think a no-deal exit would be so damaging they are prepared to put country before party.

 Has Boris Johnson destroyed his premiership before it has even begun? | The Independent

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London is losing its status as the world’s most important financial centre to New York because of the Brexit crisis, according to a global survey of executives. The British capital fell 17 per cent on last year when bosses were asked to name the world's top financial centre, with New York rising 10 per cent. For the research, consultants Duff & Phelps asked 180 senior figures in asset management, private equity, hedge funds, banking and brokerage. Some 52 per cent said New York, up 10 per cent from last year, while 36 per cent said London, down 17 per cent from 2018. European centres including Dublin, Frankfurt and Luxembourg also saw higher rankings in this year’s Global Regulatory Outlook survey. Looking ahead five years, only 21 per cent of respondents expected London to be the world’s financial centre, with 44 per cent predicting it would be New York. Some 12 per cent said Hong Kong, up from 3 per cent last year.

 Brexit fallout sees New York overtake London as top financial centre, according to survey | The Independent

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UK car production plunged 45% in April after automakers brought forward their annual shutdowns to coincide with Brexit — only for the EU exit deadline to be extended. Commercial vehicle exports were down 89%. The carmakers have taken "a raft of costly and ongoing contingency measures" ahead of Brexit, including stockpiling, cost-cutting, training, and rerouting of logistics, said the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The industry's woes highlight the broader costs — and unintended consequences — of trade barriers as the US-China tariff war drags on.

 Brexit reduced UK car production by 45%, showcasing the costs and unintended consequences of new trade barriers | Markets Insider

Already his “no deal” talk is doing real damage. UK manufacturing shrank last month at the fastest rate since the referendum, with export orders at a three-year low. Construction figures fell their fastest for a year due to “ongoing political and economic uncertainty” as “a fragile dreariness descended on the sector”, according to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply. Retail sales fell by 2.7% in May, the worst drop since records began, though consumer spending is what has kept the economy afloat. Wednesday’s service sector figures are unlikely to lift the gloom..

 Damaging talk of ‘no deal’ spells doom for the Tories | Polly Toynbee | Opinion | The Guardian

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According to the Conservative government’s economic impact assessment of a no-deal Brexit on business and trade, over a 15-year period the economy will be between 6.3 per cent and 9 per cent smaller than it would have been compared to continuing as an EU member. This estimate does not account for any short-term disruption from a disorderly no-deal Brexit which could occur this October – in that case, the downside is likely to be far worse. At the time that government assessment was produced in February, it found that there was little evidence that businesses and individuals in general were properly preparing for a no-deal scenario – this still appears to be the case. To put this in context, around 240,000 UK businesses that currently only trade with the EU would need to interact with customs processes for the first time and quickly adapt to a changed trading environment.

 Brexit: Johnson, Raab and Javid are advocating financial ruin by promising a no-deal

If you think Brexit was all about restoring Parliamentary sovereignty, think again:

Esther McVey has become the second Tory leadership hopeful this week to say they would shut down parliament in order to secure a no-deal Brexit. Known as proroguing parliament, the process is a way of bringing a parliamentary session to an end prematurely, as happens during a general election, allowing the government to enact its wishes without MPs having a say.

 Tory leadership: Esther McVey threatens to prorogue Parliament to trigger no-deal Brexit | indy100

Many UK businesses "are not even close to being ready for a no-deal" Brexit, figures seen by Newsnight suggest. In February, HMRC launched the Transitional Simplified Procedures scheme, aimed at easing imports in the event of the UK leaving the customs union and single market abruptly. Less than 10% of the firms estimated to require the status had applied for it as of 26 May, Newsnight has found. HMRC said it had plans to ensure "as many traders as possible are ready". The Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP) would allow UK firms to import goods from mainland Europe without filling out new customs declarations at the border. UK businesses would also be allowed to postpone the payment of import duties for one year. But figures show that only 17,800 firms had applied for the TSP as of 26 May. That's less than 10% of the total of 240,000 firms estimated to require the status by 31 October, when the UK's latest Article 50 extension is due to expire.

 Brexit: UK firms 'not even close to ready' for no deal - BBC News

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The battle between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to outdo each other in offering the hardest Brexit with “no deal” pledges is the “height of irresponsibility”, showing “zero understanding” of the consequences, business leaders have said. The trade body Make UK spoke out after manufacturers suffered the sharpest fall in activity in six and a half years, adding to signs of economic weakness. Seamus Nevin, the chief economist at the organisation, said: “Given this outlook, increasing competition to see who can race to the bottom and act tough on ‘no deal’ is the height of irresponsibility with zero understanding of the consequences.” Make UK represents companies ranging from Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan, BMW, Toyota, Airbus and BAE Systems to Lush Cosmetics, Warburtons and Ikea.

 Johnson and Hunt's Brexit pledges irresponsible, say manufacturers | Politics | The Guardian

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Nigel Farage has been given 24 hours by the European parliament to explain in person his failure to declare lavish expenses funded by Arron Banks, an insurance tycoon under investigation by the UK’s National Crime Agency. The summons came just two hours before the Brexit party leader was spotted arriving at the US ambassador’s residence in London for a meeting with Donald Trump during the US president’s state visit to the UK. Last month Channel 4 News revealed emails, invoices and documents suggesting that Banks had covered Farage’s costs for a £13,000-a-month Chelsea home in the year of the Brexit referendum, visits to the US and a chauffeur-driven car. Should Farage fail to convince the parliament of his reason for not declaring Banks’s funding, he could potentially lose the right to make a victory speech in the chamber in July as head of the his parliamentary group. 

None of the donations were declared to the European parliament despite the MEPs’ code of conduct stipulating that all members must declare travel, accommodation or subsistence expenses from third parties. The European parliament’s president, Antonio Tajani, had referred the matter to a committee of five MEPs who act as watchdogs over the parliament’s code of conduct. They met on Tuesday to agree on an unusually short deadline for Farage to explain the failure to declare the expenses at a hearing in Brussels on Wednesday. Farage, who earns €102,000 (£90,000) each year as an MEP and received up to €700,000 from media appearances in 2014-18, told the Guardian that he had no intention of attending the hearing. He said: “What is this but an EU kangaroo court where I am given 24 hours notice about allegations picked up from press stories? “I will not be attending at such short notice. And if they try to bar me from the building, who else gives voice to the thousands of people who voted for me? Is this democracy EU style?

 EU gives Nigel Farage 24 hours to explain Arron Banks funds | Politics | The Guardian

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Mr Johnson has argued that if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal on 31 October, businesses will still be able to continue tariff-free trade with Europe under an obscure trading law known as Gatt 24. Without this protection, thousands of goods traded between the UK and the EU would be subject to standard WTO tariffs, adding considerably to costs to consumers. But WTO director general Roberto Azevedo has now baldly stated that the mechanism – which his organisation oversees – cannot be invoked unless the parties involved have reached agreement on a future trade deal. He told Prospect magazine that Gatt 24 only applies in the period between a deal being struck and its full implementation.

 Boris Johnson's Brexit plan for businesses dismissed by head of WTO | The Independent

“I am doing my best to represent my constituents – I cannot think of a business in my patch that is enthusiastic about Brexit, let alone no deal. It is an odd situation for the MP being threatened with deselection for being on the side of virtually every business in his constituency. You never would have thought a Tory MP could be in that position.”

 Tory rebels threaten Boris Johnson after majority cut to one | Politics | The Guardian

Boris Johnson’s controversial enforcer, Dominic Cummings, an architect of Brexit and a fierce critic of Brussels, is co-owner of a farm that has received €250,000 (£235,000) in EU farming subsidies, the Observer can reveal. The revelation is a potential embarrassment for the mastermind behind Johnson’s push to leave the EU by 31 October. Since being appointed as Johnson’s chief adviser, Cummings has presented the battle to leave the EU as one between the people and the politicians. He positions himself as an outsider who wants to demolish elites, end the “absurd subsidies” paid out by the EU and liberate the UK from its arcane rules and regulations.

 Brexit enforcer Cummings’ farm took €235,000 in EU handouts | Politics | The Guardian

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Amber Rudd has said she believes the risks of a no-deal Brexit are no more than a challenge that can be countered by government action, going back on her previous assessment in which she said it would cause “generational damage” to the UK. The work and pensions secretary, who kept her job when Boris Johnson became prime minister by renouncing her previously resolute opposition to no deal, said she still believed this would be much less preferable than a managed Brexit.

 Risks of no-deal Brexit can be managed by government, says Rudd | Politics | The Guardian

Arron Banks has been criticised after he appeared to wish harm upon Greta Thunberg as the 16-year-old activist set sail across the Atlantic in a solar-powered yacht on a zero-carbon two-week voyage. The controversial Brexit backer warned the teenager that “freak yachting accidents do happen in August” as he responded to a tweet by Green party MP Caroline Lucas who said Thunberg was carrying “the vital message to the UN that time is running out to address the climate emergency”. His comments sparked outrage among MPs, celebrities and academics, but he defended the remark in a series of late-night tweets on Wednesday in which he accused “lefties” of having no sense of humour.

 Arron Banks jokes about Greta Thunberg and 'freak yachting accidents' | UK news | The Guardian

the launch of a devastating report on the impact of a no-deal Brexit. The report rings the death knell for upland hill farming, but sheep are only the first in the line of fire: it also warns that half of Britain’s farms would go out of business and calls for a public vote before any Brexit. Today’s report, written by Séan Rickard, the former chief economist of the National Farmers’ Union – and launched by Farmers for a People’s Vote – is a forensic analysis of the effect of a crash-out Brexit, which the government will struggle to refute. The high proportion of UK farm exports to the EU would stop, barred by regulatory barriers and deterred by tariffs: 27% on chickens, 46% on lamb and 65% on beef. Cereals would be hit too. The government says it will remove or sharply lower all tariffs on imported food to keep prices down as the pound plunges. But this report shows how that import surge would wreck British farming.

 Brexiteers promised a new dawn for UK farming, not agricultural Armageddon | Polly Toynbee | Opinion | The Guardian

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Boris Johnson has promised to take Britain out of the EU with or without a deal on October 31. However, a secret official memo from the head of the civil service, extracts of which were revealed earlier this year, reportedly warned Johnson of the severe consequences of a no-deal Brexit. The former chief of the civil service Lord Kerslake, has told Business Insider that the advice should now be published in full, as Britain heads towards a no-deal exit from the EU. “It’s for me uncomfortable that senior politicians in the country are privy to the consequences of something so grave that we as the public haven’t seen,” Kerslake told Business Insider.

Boris Johnson urged to release secret official Brexit memo warning ministers about riots, soaring food prices and a deep recession

A Conservative MP has accused Boris Johnson of putting his life at risk because his “tub-thumping populism” over Brexit has triggered death threats against him. In an extraordinary criticism, Dominic Grieve said the prime minister was “behaving like a demagogue” – arguing it led directly to “vile” and menacing messages from members of the public. The former attorney general spoke out after Mr Johnson claimed that MPs fighting a no-deal Brexit had joined in “a terrible collaboration” with Brussels to keep the UK in the EU. “The rhetoric leads straightforwardly to the death threats which I receive,” Mr Grieve warned. “And this seems to me that the language he’s using is not that of what I would expect of a Conservative prime minister.

 Tory MP accuses Boris Johnson of causing death threats against him in damning condemnation of ‘demagogue’ prime minister | The Independent

 The public decisively rejects Boris Johnson’s threat to crash the UK out of the EU without a deal, undermining his claim to have a mandate for the dramatic step, an exclusive poll for The Independent shows. Only 34 per cent of voters want the prime minister to carry out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October if necessary – while 49 per cent urge him to either delay, cancel Brexit altogether, or stage a fresh referendum.

 Brexit: Voters reject Boris Johnson’s plan to crash out of EU with no deal, exclusive poll finds

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A Brexit preparation document leaked to the Sunday Times (paywall) reveals a government bracing for the worst. The leak comes as prime minister Boris Johnson doubles down on his vow to leave the European Union on Oct. 31 with or without a deal. The document, which appears to have been written just this month by the Cabinet Office and marked “official-sensitive,” lists key planning assumptions and details the likely repercussions of a no-deal Brexit. Among them: fuel, food, and medicine shortages, rising costs of social care, significant port disruptions, and a hard border with Ireland. “This is not Project Fear—this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios—not the worst case,” a senior government source told the Sunday Times. The report is one of the first times that the government has shown that it assumes a no-deal Brexit. And, worryingly, the document states that both the public and businesses are unprepared for a no-deal scenario, in part because of “EU Exit fatigue” following the extension of the divorce date from March to Oct. 31. Here are some of the ways they anticipate a hard Brexit will affect British industries and people.

 Brexit document leak shows the UK anticipates the worst — Quartz

Despite those warnings Johnson sought to convey a willingness to compromise in his appearance with Merkel, saying that he was “glad” to hear his German counterpart setting such a “blistering timetable”, and adding wir schaffen das (“we will manage”), the same phrase Merkel famously used to sound determined in the middle of the 2015 refugee crisis. Both leaders agreed the onus was on the UK to come up with a way to square Britain’s desire to leave the EU with the need to avert a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, as set out in the Good Friday agreement.

 Merkel gives Johnson 30 days to find solution to avoid no-deal Brexit | Politics | The Guardian

A boycott of The Sun newspaper by the people of Liverpool after the Hillsborough disaster helped to cut Euroscepticism in Merseyside, according to a new study.  Researchers at the London School of Economics and University of Zurich found Merseyside was around 10 per cent less Eurosceptic than the rest of the UK as a result of the boycott. The Sun‘s daily circulation in Liverpool fell drastically after it printed a front-page story incorrectly blaming the Hillsborough disaster, which claimed 96 lives, on the behaviour of the fans. The study found most readers switched allegiance from The Sun to The Mirror.

 Brexit: Sun boycott helped to cut Euroscepticism in Merseyside, study suggests | The Independent