Hession will get $39 million or a bit more

[Indoreservoir]

Page 55 of the MIC tells what they would get if the change of control happened on 31 Dec 2015.

Would guess he's in line for more now, though possibly less as some of his RSUs have already been paid.

Those who are talking only double his salary are bush league - he's in the Bigs!

Isn't Pink Shirt a wonderful CEO?

And ANYONE think we'll get anything for Bobcat/Raptor - FORGET IT! They are not TCF discoveries until you have a flow test. Morgan Stanley said it clearly - NO VALUE for exploration acreage. Sorry.

[Stavros]

1. Hession, Finlayson and BOD say we are getting ALL the future value for IOC's assets because OSH will get the CA$H and we will be OSH shareholders.

The problem with this view is that we will only have 14% of OSH after the deal closes. So we get only MINIMAL value for our contribution to the merged company.
The percentage should be DOUBLE - - - I will accept 25%

Oil Search Market Cap is US$7.5 Billion
IOC's Market Cap is US$1.6 Billion
Add it up Boys and Girls: US$9.1 Billion

By my Polish Math, 1.6 / 9.1 = 17.6%
THAT's WITHOUT ANY PREMIUM FOR A SO-CALLED MERGER (WHICH THIS IS NOT)

2. The CVR will pay us US$ 0.77 per mcfe for E/A resources above 6.2 Tcfe. WHY SO LITTLE?

The SPA between IOC/TOTAL specifies a payment of US$ 1.00 per mcfe E/A resource above 6.5 Tcfe (and US$ 0.80 of resource below 6.5 Tcfe)

THIS IS BLATANTLY BULL SCHIST

Hession said repeatedly that the High Case is Now the Mid Case.
High Case was 12 tcfe

I want the CVR to pay me (US$ 1.00 per mcfe) / (US$ 0.77) x (12 - 6.2) x 6.05 = US$ 45.00
Based on Hession's claims of E/A being a Giant, Monster and Multi-Darcy resource, I want a floor of US$ 30.00 per share for the CVR
Without a floor, the Market will value the CVR at ZERO for the next 16 months.

AND ... the FID Payment of US$ 517 Million is lost - - - eaten as a mid-afternoon snack by none other than Patrick Pouyanne (Tiny to his friends)

3. TOTAL is paying far too little for the additional share of E/A that they will acquire plus the YUUUUGE %ages of the other resources they will acquire.


GIVE ME A PROPER VALUE FOR MY SHARES AND I WILL HAND THEM OVER.

Stick with this offer and I will do everything I can for the rest of my life to make the perps pay.

Just remember what all our Mothers said to us at one time or another:

"WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND"

[Indoreservoir]

1. Hession, Finlayson and BOD say we are getting ALL the future value for IOC's assets because OSH will get the CA$H and we will be OSH shareholders. The problem with this view is that we will only have 14% of OSH after the deal closes. So we get only MINIMAL value for our contribution to the merged company. The percentage should be DOUBLE - - - I will accept 25% Oil Search Market Cap is US$7.5 Billion IOC's Market Cap is US$1.6 Billion Add it up Boys and Girls: US$9.1 Billion By my Polish Math, 1.6 / 9.1 = 17.6% THAT's WITHOUT ANY PREMIUM FOR A SO-CALLED MERGER (WHICH THIS IS NOT) 2. The CVR will pay us US$ 0.77 per mcfe for E/A resources above 6.2 Tcfe. WHY SO LITTLE? The SPA between IOC/TOTAL specifies a payment of US$ 1.00 per mcfe E/A resource above 6.5 Tcfe (and US$ 0.80 of resource below 6.5 Tcfe) THIS IS BLATANTLY BULL SCHIST Hession said repeatedly that the High Case is Now the Mid Case. High Case was 12 tcfe I want the CVR to pay me (US$ 1.00 per mcfe) / (US$ 0.77) x (12 - 6.2) x 6.05 = US$ 45.00 Based on Hession's claims of E/A being a Giant, Monster and Multi-Darcy resource, I want a floor of US$ 30.00 per share for the CVR Without a floor, the Market will value the CVR at ZERO for the next 16 months. AND ... the FID Payment of US$ 517 Million is lost - - - eaten as a mid-afternoon snack by none other than Patrick Pouyanne (Tiny to his friends) 3. TOTAL is paying far too little for the additional share of E/A that they will acquire plus the YUUUUGE %ages of the other resources they will acquire. GIVE ME A PROPER VALUE FOR MY SHARES AND I WILL HAND THEM OVER. Stick with this offer and I will do everything I can for the rest of my life to make the perps pay. Jusut remember what all our Mothers said to us at one time or another: "WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND"

They have explained no place WHY do this deal.  Where is the reasoning?

I notice in their BS presentation that they do not compare the deal to what we have - TOT payments plus share in the LNG plant.

They've GOT to compare the deal to what they have now - completely ignored in the BS they presented All they are spinning it on is share price increase to yesterday, without regard to the impending certification / FID / first cargo payment - they ignore that completely, or so it seems.

Hope someone asks the question - how does the OSH offer compare to what we have in hand? What are the numbers?  Bet the idiots haven't done them.

Back of envelope:

Current NPV10 of the XOM plant is about US$ 12-14 billion, so if we were similar after construction our 36.5% (assuming no buyback) is NPV10 US$ 4.4 billion.

Of course, we have to pony-up 25%  of the LNG plant/facility costs of $12 billion (for arbument), or $3 billion.  Unless we expanded at XOM thru some deal wich means our costs are less than $12 billion

Will be interesting to see what the banks not involved in the deal have to say tomorrow.

[Li'loilady]

Stavros - I agree – disappointing deal.  I plan to vote NO in hopes of better terms.

I'm just double checking your figures for payment above 6.2 Tcfe.  $6.05/T ?

From IOC PR:

"In addition, the CVR entitles holders to a contingent cash payment that is linked to the volume of 2C hydrocarbon gas resource certified to be contained in the Elk-Antelope fields. Each CVR will deliver approximately US$6.05 per InterOil share for each tcfe above 6.2 tcfe gross certified 2C resource in the Elk-Antelope fields, and will be paid in cash upon completion of the certification process. The CVR provides InterOil shareholders with an uncapped additional payment, depending on the size of the certified 2C resources in the Elk-Antelope fields."

[Stavros]

Yes indeed the CVR pays for gas above 6.2 Tcfe at a rate of US$ 0.77 per mcfe.
TOTAL was to pay IOC US$ 1.00 per mcfe above 6.5 Tcfe (and US$ 0.80 for gas between 5.4 - 6.5 Tcfe)

We will be getting hosed on the CVR - We should get the same as IOC was to get from TOTAL BECAUSE WE ARE IOC.

[Li'loilady]

Got it.  I was mixing up the apples and oranges.  I think my stomach was still aching from the kick in the gut this AM.