'Kaliboo' pid='69742' dateline='<a href="tel:1463752 Wrote:
If OSH is perceived as getting a great deal, then that is great for OSH PPS AND for the future company AND for IOC shareholders who take OSH shares. But the "great deal" is largely happening at IOC shareholder expense. IF we IOC shareholders hold out for a much better deal and win, then maybe the market doesn't like it for OSH and then we get hurt on that end. So it seems we are damned if we do and damned if we don't hold out for a better deal.
Perhaps the real upside is how good is this for OSH? As others commented, things will move fast now and no more BS from IOC management. OSH will be in a very nice position as partner to both LNG projects. Sort of a catbird seat. However, it is disturbing as to how much of the other assets they are giving away to TOT. This will lessen Tot's dependence on OSH for future feed/expansion needs. Not a good thing at all for OSH and us as future shareholders.
But that may be the only way to get those fields developed.
We are a victim of low oil/gas prices as much as anything, in addition to rotten management.
Reading other postings I agree that this is merely the first formal trial balloon. MH and the BOD have teed this up. TOT, XOM and others have been quietly waiting for some opportune time to buy IOC assets at cheap prices and avoid a bidding war where IOC shareholders become the only winners (I.e., the inverse of what we have now). It appears TOT was in the right place at the right time and the smartest of all by first buying part of E/A. Now that their Trojan Horse is inside the IOC and OSH heads, TOT was better able to understand the next step of their acquisition strategy. The oil /gas price collapses were a godsend for TOT and a curse for us. XOM and other SMs are at great disadvantage being on the outside. So a bidding war is not as likely. IOC as an ongoing concern clearly is at a dead end. The best they could have done would have been to hold out for the certification payment, pay that out to shareholders and then immediately sell the company before amassing more debt.
Because many in the market are calling the deal good and fair, it would seem other SMs are not likely to jump into this.
It seems we need Phil to cause trouble that will escalate the offer, but we don't want Phil back in the drivers seat. I imagine he is preparing to mount a large counter attack of some kind.
So next actions or inactions are (1) what will Phil do, (2) will XOM do anything on this or are they happy with the deal as is? It seems IOC shareholders need to get clarity on our next steps.
The harsh reality we all have to accept is that the market prices this at today's prices; not what our PPS was before "the great Transformation." We are somewhere near the low in gas prices. This is happening at the worst possible time IMHO.
The moral of the story is this: It doesn't matter how good the assets and the upside are, if you have rotten management AND if product price cycle is against you AND if you don't have a revenue stream, then don't expect to make any money. All the optimism in the world can't fix that.
