Interesting predictions

[admin]

From Yahoo, interesting guy, Bertl with quite a specific list which is pretty favourable, I would say.

My opinion is:

1) EWC Flex are out of EA
2) JKM will win
3) It will be a traditional plant with first production in 2018
4) IOC will sell more tha 50% of EA
5) It will be for less that $2.50
6) The operator will not be Mitsui, COP, or BP. It will be a an Asian O&G company
7) Its very likely that mitsui will not be on a tolling mode
8) The LNG plant could be relocated.
9) IOC will SD another 20% of T2 within the next 18 months

Just my opinions,,,nothing more. No secret info source.

I guess another addition could be:
10) The dry gas is/isn't going to be re-injected. Would be interested in opinions of others on this. Personally I think he's likely to be quite on the mark.

[ebster123]

I still believe Shell is not through. seems they might fly in at the last second like Jimmy "Super Fly" Snukka from the top rope and put in a substantial bid for E/A. If the asians bid in the sub $2.50 per mcf range Shell could bid $3.00 and still make boatloads and fill their obligations. JMO, be well and looking forward to the rising pps!!

[admin]

Yes, although I think $2-2.5 really is a pretty good price range, it is likely there is some room yet for those that really want in, especially reading up on those Australian coal seam gas projects and the staggering amount of infrastructure, wells, and manpower required to make those work. Perhaps a bid for the whole company is even better at those levels.

[jft310]

NO ONE KNOWS. It's still open and not settled. They are still negotiating. Bert is taking a flyer.Most is settled that true.Mitsui wants to reinject. Hint the consortium is JKM.Now what do those letters mean.

[admin]

Well, if you combine 2, 4 and 5), you get something quite interesting. JKM as the winning bidder, for 50%+ of EA and less than $2.5 per mcf.

Unfortunately, there wasn't a minimum per/mcf figure, but say that's $2/mcf the sums add up, I would say. Enough to drill from here to eternity.

[bertl05]

NO ONE KNOWS. It's still open and not settled. They are still negotiating. Bert is taking a flyer.Most is settled that true.Mitsui wants to reinject. Hint the consortium is JKM.Now what do those letters mean.

Its possible....but i'm betting no re-injection. Call my predictions a flyer, i'm fine with that. Im not trying to win a contest, just putting forth what i consider to be the most logical scenario. Im fairly certain Mitsui has no role in operating the LNG plant as well, either will Japex. It will be someone else.

I also feel strongly that if JKM is the winner they will play a large role in overall fianacing which has great value and effectively increases the bid if you will.

[ArtM72]

1) Seems right.
2) Simply a guess in my opinion.
3) Does it take 6 years to build a plant with a predetermined site and completed FEED for the associated CSP? Sounds like an awfully long time. Maybe #1 should be reconsidered if true. The original Exxon plant was scheduled to be on line in 4 years (http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/pnglng/). Interestingly, this article also stated the Exxon project was to be "underpinned" by Elk/Antelope.
4) If IOC sells more than 50% of E/A (a "non-conforming bid") it will be be because they are under pressure to get the deal done, and likely the price would be at higher than $2.50/mmcf price simply because IOC wants a greater share of the pricing above the nominal $2.50. As everyone at the AGM seemed to agree IOC is under pressure to get "the deal" done in order to set itself up for its future independence.
5) Only if less than 35% sold. See #4.
6) Gas contracts go to Asia, construction and operation goes to western supermajor. My guess in order of likelihood is Exxon, Shell, Chevron. Exxon needs gas for its plant, Shell is losing its Russian fields and Chevron, well they've been shaking hands around the government offices.
7) Mitsui sells its interest?
8) From where to where? If he's suggesting from Port Moresby to the Gulf Petroleum Park, I'd agree. The solid limestone bluff pointed to by Phil and others at the AGM sounds like an awfully good place to build.
9) In the many possible paths forward an additional of one or more 20% selldowns of T certainly is possible. Kind of a no brainer.

[jft310]

Heres my guess
1)I agree EWC and Flex are out at E/A. I think they may come back at T-2.
2)I think its always been the Japs.JKM wins.
3) I agree a traditional plant ,date unknown.Or how much DD has Mitsui done on their own bring to PNG a traditional plant.
4)I don't agree IOC will sell more then 50%. I think in total more then 50% is sold. I think Civelli, drilling partners get clawed back a portion and Petromin sells their 20%.IOC ends up with 25-32% of the project.
5)The price talk I hear and its again a rumor is more the $3 per mcf because of the demand .
6)I think the operator is Petronas.Happens all over the Oil and NG business an operator is hired to manage others assets.
7)Appears the PNG govt doesn't like tolling. To get this first deal done IOC will bend in some way.
8)LNG plant location who cares. Just build the darn thing.
9)Its 100% to me that PRE buys more of T-2 in time. I think is 20% is a fine number. A PRE buy in plus the E/A sell down gives IOC lots of cash to do what it really wants a modular deal think RC and why hes there and someones floating see the IOC buyin of FLEX.
But lets just get this one done.This darn E/A deal.If the liquids are as robust as indications just pump em out for instant cash flow.Reduces the odds of reinjection I assume.

[admin]

Thanks for that, JFT. There seems to be some consensus forming on the main issues, always good to see. If the price is $3/mcf, that REALLY would be bullish, although even at $2/mcf, they would get all the funds for their part of the plant and infrastructure, and greatly increased exploration program. The latter could produce a rally for years, provided they find more, but who would bet against that..

[Palm]

We have to remember a few things:
1. We are not selling down just E/A. It was made very clear by Phil, Collin and Wayne at the AGM that PRL 15 as a whole is what is being sold down. Hemi, Jonleba (in an email to me last week), and others have noted that there are several (especially Mule) formations within PRL 15 that hold great promise. PRL 15 is the first "prize" being sold off.

2. Location- Like Art mentions, at the AGM Bill Jaspar told us that the Bluff location sits on limestone whereas much of the rest of the Gulf delta is very wet, which is great for putting in the pipelines, but not for locating the plant(s). If one looks at topo maps of the Gulf of Papua it's pretty clear that most anywhere along the coast the waters are fairly shallow; there is not much doubt that any "petroleum port" will have to include some substantial dredging. Once you get down to where the XOM LNG plant is located and of course at IOC's Napa Napa location the waters are much deeper. This is probably a big reason XOM's plant is located there. However Gulf Province officials are adament that this project as a whole is located in Gulf Province. So with all of the engineering work that has been done (in conjunction with Mitsui) and with fairly recent relocation of the project site to the Bluff it seems interesting that there is talk of yet another relocation, but with new players nothing can be ruled out. It's still very interesting to me that so much work is being done at Napa Napa. It appears Google's maps have been updated fairly recently and last night I was looking at what is going on there. Lots of excavating and building is going on there and IOC continues to say that it is being readied as a staging area for equipment as it comes in. For now we have to assume that, but lots going on there. Given the political ramifications of now saying an LNG plant will not be in Gulf, it's hard to fathom it won't stay in Gulf.
3. On a traditional plant I agree with others who ask why a 2018 date, especially when Exxon is online with hitting 2014 production and they had to construct an undersea pipeline, which is basically complete to the LNG plant site. The site itself is in high gear with construction. If PRL 15 will have a traditional plant and it will be in Gulf, sure seems production can be targeted for 2016. They have built roads all the way to E/A. The pipeline routes have been sited, staging has been built on the Purari and Gulf already signed a contract with a logistics company. And IOC has it's own construction company mobilized and manned. 2018 seems too far out of a guess.
4. I also don't think they will sell more than 50% of PRL 15. At AGM they seemed to indicate the 31.5% "demand" from Duma might be a max. And it seems IOC has no need to sell that much. It would be a very expensive buy-in for whoever is the "winner" especially given the other costs and "prizes" IOC has to develop.

Agree that it will be good to get this done. Then we can obsess over PRL ? at Tri/Bwata.