Will IPI Agree to Delay Certification?

[Stavros]

I think the Answer is YES.

• Botten needs to delay the Certification, and would not say it's under discussion if he thought it would not happen.
• Civelli doesn't need the CA$H immediately and will agree if there are guaranteed benefits

I know for a fact that Carlo Civelli is a very smart fellow.

Peter Botten Tail seems to be a bright guy, with a ruthless streak; perhaps with Zebra stripes?

Both are shrewd buisnessmen.

For events over the past 3 years, it has become obvious to me that Michael ( Pincus ) Hession is deficient in every skill related to being a top manager in an oil, gas and exploration company. I don't thinks t's a coincidence that he is a FORMER BP and Woodside employee. ALL SKILLS ARE LACKING.

Hession fashioned a deal with TOTAL at the end of 2013 that was back-end loaded, with the expectations that:

1. He would bulldoze Civelli into selling his share of PRL15 to IOC for a song, and then turn around and sell Civelli's share to TOTAL at a higher price - - - WRONG. Civelli and Botten worked out a deal that valued E/A gas at well over $1.00 per mcfe. Botten was thrilled
2. IOC would get a YUUUGE certification payment from TOTAL by the end of 2015; large enough to fund IOC's participation in Papua LNG because he know E/A had over 10 Tcfe - - - WRONG. Hession was played like a base drum by TOTAL (maybe he enjoyed that beating??). First by Christophe ( The Walrus ) de Margerie (until 10 October 2014 when he died) and then Phatprick (The Frog ) Pouyanne.
3. Hession ( not IOC ) would find numerous new multi-Tcf fields, sell them down and then personally get paid a YUUUGE bonus for each one - - - WRONG. With all that money from TOTAL and from Puma Energy, he managed to drill only three wells before running out of money. He forced IOC's Reserves and Governance Committee to accept Bobcat and Raptor as "Discoveries" so that he could garner the bonuses. He failed on Wahoo. All three wells were drilled in the wrong place

So what happened?

TOTAL and OSH have done everything in their power to delay Delay DELAY because they knew The Man in Pink was incompetent and would destroy IOC sooner rather than later.

That day officially came on 12 August 2015 when the Wahoo side-track was abandoned. IOC's Share Price was $44.63 at that time. NOTE: On June 30, the PPS was above $60. I believe it dropped to mid-40's because that's when OSH leaked  news of the Wahoo failure to SHORTS.

Now, let's consider why OSH asked Civelli to consider to delay Certification, and why Civelli might agree:

• Botten has many big problems to deal with, some of which are:
  
  • The PNG LNG Government's 10% ownership of OSH has been tainted from the very beginning. The Government wants more LNG Trains NOOS
  • PNG LNG cannot implement Train #3 because they don't have enough gas
  • OSH does not have enough cash to participate in either PNG LNG Train #3 or Papua LNG
  • The Raw Deal as it is currently structured, will not be accepted by IOC Shareholders. I think Botten knows this.

==> Stealing IOC and its gas solves most of OSH's problems. PNG LNG can now go ahead with Train #3. OSH gets gas on its books and improves its Balance Sheet

• Civelli has no problems
  
  • He already pocketed $900 Million from OSH ( some of which, of course, was passed along to IPI Partners )
  • He's not desperate for CA$H; he's already waited this long for final payment, and he can wait longer
  • If Civelli does Botten a favor, it must be repaid in the future. Don't forget, IPI still has major percentages of IOC's other resources
  • If he waits until after A-7, the payment either stays the same or ( more likely ) gets larger
  • Civelli (Clarion Finanz) owns a large block of IOC shares and will benefit if A-7 increases the CVR value

Will Civelli agree to delay certification?

After careful thought, if I were in Civelli's shoes, I would answer YES if the following terms are agreed:

1. Insist that OSH and TOTAL guarantee that A-7 is spud in September and drilled to completion. This may kill this extension because TOTAL may not agree to this
2. Ask that more OSH Shares be included in the OSH/IOC Raw Deal - - - for the 101st time: 10 Shares of OSH per Share of IOC
3. Ask for higher payout on the CVR (after all, he has something like 2 million shares of IOC) - - - $7.75 per Tcfe and a Floor of $30 

If Botten doesn't agree, I would politely shake hands and watch Botten have a stroke.

Then, when Botten changes his mind shortly thereafter, I would add the following to my list:

• Guarantee that Hession is not put on the OSH BOD
• Guarantee that Hession is not employed by OSH
• Give Civelli a Board Seat

Doing all the above gives the Raw Deal a chance to succeed in a Shareholder Vote

If Botten doesn't delay the IPI Certification, and the Raw Deal is killed, OSH will be in a bad situation indeed.

[will2bgreat]

Stavros,

Why can't Civelli simply ask for an increase in terms to the IPI?  This will come at a much lower cost to OSH.

Also, if I were Civelli, I would insist on GCA for certification.

Just my thoughts.

[Stavros]

1. Civelli has been working with Phil Mulacek for a long time and they're probably still partners
2. Civelli has 2 million shares of IOC and benefits if the Raw Deal is improved; perhaps $50 Million in benefits!
3. The IPI members are also significant IOC Shareholders and will benefit if the Raw Deal is sweetened

They are already using Gaffney Cline & Associates (GCA) and Nederland Sewell (NSAI) . . . I guess they would suspend their work and then restart after A-7

[katytrader]

1. Civelli has been working with Phil Mulacek for a long time and they're probably still partners 2. Civelli has 2 million shares of IOC and benefits if the Raw Deal is improved; perhaps $50 Million in benefits! 3. The IPI members are also significant IOC Shareholders and will benefit if the Raw Deal is sweetened They are already using Gaffney Cline & Associates (GCA) and Nederland Sewell (NSAI) . . . I guess they would suspend their work and then restart after A-7

Also note that PAC LNG also has a second certification one year after delivery of first commercial cargo (per OSH Feb 2016), so what they miss now gets picked up years later?   I may  not live to see the end of the story.

[Li'loilady]

So, Civelli, Henry, et al have some cards to play in this game and financial and personal reasons to play them.  Interesting.  White Knght?

[Stavros]

IPI should not agree to delay Certification UNLESS the Raw Deal is improved to what Concerned InterOil Shareholders will accept.