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Brexit
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06-30-2016, 01:37 PM
The great Brexit jobs exodus is under way. It was inevitable that pulling out of the EU would spook some businesses into uprooting. Companies hate uncertainty and tend not to stand it for too long. However, no one expected the migration to begin quite so quickly. It’s not even a week since the referendum vote and already we’ve had a flurry of warnings from big companies that they are considering shifting their bases to other European countries.
07-01-2016, 12:51 AM
Boris Johnson has "created the greatest constitutional crisis of modern times" and "must live with the shame of what he has done", Former Conservative deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine has said: There will be a profound sense of dismay and frankly contempt. He's ripped the party apart. He's created the greatest constitutional crisis of modern times. He knocked billions off the value of the nation's savings. He's like a general who leads his army to the sound of guns and at the sight of the battlefield abandoned the field. I have never seen so contemptible and irresponsible a situation. He must live with the shame of what he has done." Brexit latest, and Boris Johnson drops out of Tory leadership contest - BBC News
07-01-2016, 01:24 AM
Even before 23 June there was "growing evidence that uncertainty" was making people put off making decisions, car purchases had gone into reverse and business investment had fallen, says Bank of England governor Mark Carney. He says it's plausible that uncertainty will last for some time. A plan for the UK's current challenges would include "a comprehensive strategy for engaging with the EU", he says. Brexit latest, and Boris Johnson drops out of Tory leadership contest - BBC News A PROBLEM facing economists is that it won’t be possible to assess the macroeconomic impact of the Brexit vote for quite some time. The official estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter of this year will not be published until late October. More annoyingly, this estimate will not have a detailed breakdown of what’s going on in the economy; we will have to wait until late November for that. We won’t get any hint of the impact on unemployment until around September. However, there are high-frequency data which, unfortunately, paint a very worrying picture. If you look hard enough: Can you identify any impact of Brexit on the economy? | The Economist
07-01-2016, 11:19 PM
If there's anything we have learned from the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union, it is that the unthinkable is much more likely to happen than people expect. One area that investors should watch very closely after the Brexit vote is the U.K. housing market, or more specifically, the London housing market. The decision announced Thursday morning by South-East Asia's third-largest bank, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank, to suspend loan applications for the purchase of London properties by its customers is a worrying development. London Housing Market Falling Down Is Real Post-Brexit Danger - TheStreet
07-02-2016, 01:32 AM
Yet this love-hate relationship has served Britain very well. The fact that we were at the free-market end of a sclerotic union increased our relative attractiveness. London has become the commercial capital of Europe and its talent magnet. Britain’s soft power has not been greater for decades. What went wrong? The obvious rejoinder is liberal Britain worked a lot better for some Britons than for others. That is true. Many Brexiters also felt that they had been lied to repeatedly about immigration. Others see the EU as a doomed project—and think we are best out of it. Add in shameless political opportunism, a Euroskeptic press that told voters there was no cost to voting Leave, and polls that showed Remain was in the lead (so a protest vote was just that), and you get to 52 percent of the electorate. Micklethwait: Goodbye to All That - Bloomberg The two front-runners to succeed David Cameron as prime minister set the U.K. on a collision course with European Union leaders after both said they were in no hurry to trigger the mechanism that would start Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc. Michael Gove said the legal notification won’t be made this year if he becomes prime minister, echoing comments made by Theresa May. The foot-dragging sets up a clash with the 27 remaining heads of government, who said this week that the U.K. needs to move “as quickly as possible” to start the two-year Brexit process. New EU Clash Looms as Gove, May in No Rush to Trigger Brexit - Bloomberg
07-02-2016, 03:05 AM
The U.K. has been running a sizeable current account deficit for some time now, thanks to an unusually low national savings rate. That means, on net, it has been supplying the rest of Europe with demand—something other European countries need. This isn’t likely to provide Britain the negotiating leverage the Brexiters claimed (the other European countries fear the precedent more than the loss of demand) but it will shape the economic fallout. The fall in the pound is a necessary part of the U.K.’s adjustment. It will spread the pain from a downturn in British demand to the rest of the euro area. Brexit uncertainty is thus a sizable negative shock to growth in Britian’s euro area trading partners not just to Britain itself: relative to the pre-Brexit referendum baseline, I would guess that Brexit uncertainty will knock a cumulative half a percentage point off euro area growth over the next two years.*
07-02-2016, 01:19 PM
This week’s antics of Gove and Johnson are a useful reminder. For the way one has treated the other is the way both have treated the country. Some may be tempted to turn Johnson into an object of sympathy – poor Boris, knifed by his pal – but he deserves none. In seven days he has been exposed as an egomaniac whose vanity and ambition was so great he was prepared to lead his country on a path he knew led to disaster, so long as it fed his own appetite for status. He didn’t believe a word of his own rhetoric, we know that now. His face last Friday morning, ashen with the terror of victory, proved it. That hot mess of a column he served up on Monday confirmed it again: he was trying to back out of the very decision he’d persuaded the country to make. And let’s not be coy: persuade it, he did. Imagine the Leave campaign without him. Gove, Nigel Farage and Gisela Stuart: they couldn’t have done it without the star power of Boris. He knew it was best for Britain to remain in the EU. But it served his ambition to argue otherwise. We just weren’t meant to fall for it. Once we had, he panicked, vanishing during a weekend of national crisis before hiding from parliament. He lit the spark then ran away – petrified at the blaze he started. He has left us to look on his works and despair. The outlook for the economy is so bleak, the governor of the Bank of England talks of “economic post-traumatic stress disorder.” The Economist Intelligence Unit projects a 6% contraction by 2020, an 8% decline in investment, rising unemployment, falling tax revenues and public debt to reach 100% of our national output. No wonder George Osborne casually announced that the central aim of his fiscal policy since 2010 – eradicating the deficit – has now been indefinitely postponed, thereby breaking what had been the defining commitment of the Tories’ manifesto at the last election, back in the Paleolithic era known as 2015. 
07-02-2016, 08:49 PM
Will America Trump Britain in Oct/ Nov? Ours uses hairspray.
07-02-2016, 11:10 PM
'ArtM72' pid='73123' datel Wrote:Will America Trump Britain in Oct/ Nov? Ours uses hairspray. But it doesn't look like he will do a runner like Johnson, who is a much more cuddly figure and it was instantly clear he never really expected to win and was even less prepared for it. |
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