We condensed out thoughts into an article on Seeking Alpha
June 2016
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06-28-2016, 06:27 AM
06-28-2016, 11:50 AM
Basically, the whole Brexit game was a big con: The Vote Leave campaign made at least three key promises that were the basis of their victory. But since Thursday night leading figures appear to have played down their status. As Iain Duncan Smith said on Sunday: “Our promises were a series of possibilities.” So what is their status now? The leave campaign made three key promises – are they keeping them? | Politics The three promises were:
There is already a lot of backtracking, see the article. The "taking back control" stuff would make sense for, say, Italy, Portugal or Finland getting out of the euro. Then they could revive their economies and repair the damage to their competitiveness lost in the first decade of the euro largely because of the euro induced capital inflows. But the EU itself is everybody's favorite bogeyman, there is not a whole lot more control to be gained outside it, and the price for leaving is significant.
06-29-2016, 12:14 AM
For those interested we have a host of Brexit links here.
06-29-2016, 01:05 AM
Will this bounce last? Nobody knows but for us it's still too early to get back in. We might nibble at some stuff, but we won't have a portfolio over 50% in stocks and then run into one of these sharp objects littered in the world economy..
06-29-2016, 01:11 AM
Ambarella (AMBA) might be the first name we would start nibbling at, but we think the selling isn't over.
06-29-2016, 01:13 AM
For people who want to join the forum, they can do so here
06-29-2016, 01:16 AM
Sketchers (SKX) might be another name we're looking at to re-enter. It's pretty cheap at these levels
06-29-2016, 07:44 AM
Perhaps we have to wait a little longer to get back into Sketchers (SKX)... Nike (NYSE:NKE) has slid 6.3% just after reporting its Q4 earnings where revenues missed slightly despite some growth driven by international sales. Revenues by brand: Nike brand, $7.73B (up 8% ex-currency); Converse, $513M (up 18% ex-currency). Futures orders worldwide for branded footwear/apparel (scheduled for delivery June-November) were up 8% to $14.9B (up 11% ex-currency, short of expectations for a 13% gain). Inventories were up 12%. Gross margin fell 30 basis points to 45.9% amid higher costs for product and clearing excess North American inventory and unfavorable foreign exchange. Effective tax rate was 21.2%, up from a year-ago 17.8%.
06-30-2016, 02:28 AM
Can't possibly imagine stocks will set a new high under the present circumstances, but we have had two big bounce days so far. If they do get close to all time highs, it's a shorting opportunity, we think. Too many sharp objects to run into in the world economy.. |
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