Links for July 11 2016

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According to Friedman, this is a big deal because Italy's economy is the fourth largest in Europe and the eighth largest economy in the world, and there's a lot of interconnectivity in play. For example, Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank, has an enormous amount of exposure to Italy, and so does the rest of Europe. Friedman thinks it will ultimately be Germany that has to save Italy. And that will cost a lot of money.

Germany could be Europe's next big problem - Business Insider

However, the rally in stocks is making some uneasy because it’s happening as the yield on the benchmark 10-year note closed at a record-low 1.366%, according to Dow Jones data. What gives? Investors typically don’t buy bonds and stocks at the same time. Bonds are considered a haven, while stocks are favored when risk appetite is higher. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, so appetite for the perceived safety of bonds is driving yields lower even as investors scooped up equities at a rapid clip Friday.

S&P 500 near record highs? Treasury yields at lows? Something’s gotta give - MarketWatch

It may be time for a reality check on a big part of the American dream. According to UO psychology professor Azim Shariff, there is the idea — one that is touted by many politicians — that the ease to easily change our economic status by changing jobs is enough to make the nation's large levels of income inequality easier to swallow. In reality, though, the United States has the second-lowest income mobility — the ability to make such job changes — among rich countries, according to recent economic studies noted prominently by Shariff and colleagues in a study published in the journal Perspectives on Psychological Science.

UO-led study casts a shadow on the American dream | Around the O

Gao Hucheng said at a G20 meeting in Shanghai that major economies must lead the way in tackling problems, including slowing trade and sluggish growth. To boost trade the G20 ministers, from the world's major economies, agreed to cut trade costs, increase policy co-ordination and enhance financing. They also approved a trade growth plan. "We agree that we need to do more to achieve our common objectives for global growth, stability and prosperity," the G20 ministers said in a statement.

China warns on global economy and says G20 must lead - BBC News

What this (and dozens of other experiments) reveal is the way we filter new information when it challenges our strongly-held beliefs or judgements. We use a series of post hoc manoeuvres to reframe anything inconvenient to our original position. We question the probity of the evidence, or the credentials of the people who discovered it, or their motives, or whatever. The more information that emerges to challenge our perspective, the more creatively we search for new justifications, and the more entrenched we become in our prior view. This tendency is called "cognitive dissonance".

Chilcot: Why we cover our ears to the facts - BBC News

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Top economists are warning that the alarming uptick in mortality for middle-aged white Americans will force policymakers to rethink the U.S. social safety net. A report released by the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project is the latest paper to highlight how opioids, suicide and chronic liver disease are becoming a greater cause of death among whites age 45 to 54. While middle-age blacks and Latinos have seen steady declines in their mortality in recent years, whites in the same age group saw their mortality increase about 10% between 1999 and 2014.

Rising Death Rates for Middle-Aged White Americans Are Forcing a Policy Rethink - Real Time Economics - WSJ

What’s confounding researchers is that this is a uniquely American phenomenon. Europe’s economic woes haven’t had the same impact on life expectancy. One result of diverging mortality is that wealthier Americans are reaping a greater share of the Social Security pie since they can afford to retire later, get larger checks and enjoy the program’s benefits further into their golden years. Poorer Americans have to tap it earlier, get smaller checks and don’t live as long to reap its benefits.

Rising Death Rates for Middle-Aged White Americans Are Forcing a Policy Rethink - Real Time Economics - WSJ

According to the National Center for Biotechnology Information, matcha improves cognitive awareness through amino acids such as L-Theanine, which stimulates production of serotonin, dopamine, and alpha-wave activity in the brain. (One cup of H.o.M. tea has as many antioxidants as 10 cups of brewed tea, since grounding the leaves rather than just soaking them releases many more vitamins, minerals, amino acids, and antioxidants.) Antioxidants like polyphenols and flavonoids seem to protect against free radicals, increase metabolism, control blood sugar, and help lower cholesterol, while the chlorophyll from the leaves detoxifies your body from chemicals and heavy metals.

House of Matcha Boxed Set Review: $80 for a Better Life - Bloomberg

“Investors are buying bonds for capital appreciation and stocks for income. The world has turned upside down,” said James Abate, chief investment officer at Centre Asset Management LLC.

Investors are trading bonds like stocks — and that’s a red flag - MarketWatch

As I taught, I lived in a locked compound under complete surveillance: Every room was bugged, every class recorded. I scribbled down conversations as they happened and buried my notes in a lesson plan. I wrote at night, erasing the copy from my laptop each time I signed off, saving it to USB sticks that I carried on my body at all times. I backed up my research on an SD card, which I hid in the room in different spots, always with the light off, in case there were cameras. After six months, I returned home with 400 pages of notes and began writing.

The Reluctant Memoirist | New Republic

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As the S&P 500 Index surges to an all-time high and bonds rally slightly following Brexit, Goldman Sachs says it is time to be afraid, very afraid. A team of Goldman analysts led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a note to clients that markets have treated the referendum as a largely localized economic event that is likely to cause central banks to ease further. “Bonds could sell off sharply as a result of central bank disappointment, positive inflation and data surprises and/or illiquidity, which would likely drive weakness in equities and other risky assets, at least initially,” the team wrote.

Goldman Sachs Warns Investors About ‘Negative Growth Surprises’

The ETF industry has come a long way in 23 years, and indications are that it's only going to get bigger — a lot bigger. If projections from a PwC survey released this week hold up, assets for exchange-traded funds will nearly triple in the U.S. and more than double globally over the next five years. That comes after a decade of rapid expansion for an industry that has benefited from low costs and an ever-increasing array of new products in hot demand by institutional investors, and increasingly by the retail crowd as well.

ETF industry expected to nearly triple in US in next five years, PwC survey says

Investors have pulled the equivalent of $133 billion from global equity funds so far this year, according to a weekly fund flows report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch released Friday. Of that nearly $80 billion has been pulled from U.S. equity funds. But that hasn’t slowed the rally in U.S. stocks. Both the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.70% Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.66% logged record closing highs Tuesday.

Here’s who’s driving stocks to record heights - MarketWatch

What could be more American than to pop a cold Budweiser, put a hot dog on the grill, slather it with Heinz ketchup, watch the kids chase the Good Humor Ice Cream truck, and maybe catch the latest summer blockbuster? Well, technically, you'd be drinking a beer owned by a Brazilian-Belgian conglomerate, your hot dog may well have come from Smithfield Foods, a Chinese-owned company, the Heinz ketchup partly owned by a Brazilian private equity group, the Good Humor Ice Cream truck part of a British-Dutch conglomerate, and the movie house you visit will likely belong to Dalian Wanda, a Chinese real estate giant that controls more U.S cinema screens than any American company.

The Fourth of July, Brought to You by Belgium, Brazil and China - Bloomberg View

Many employees take pride in personalizing their workspace. But while it’s not uncommon to see desks littered with action figures or cubicle walls cluttered with pictures, few people give much thought to the light around them. The intensity and type of light we live with during the workday can have a major impact on our health, happiness, and productivity. Even if you have little choice but to deal with the overhead fluorescents in a windowless office, there are still several steps you can take to make the light work for you.

How Office Lighting Can Boost Your Productivity - Bloomberg

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That's where a new study, published this month in the Journal of the American Medical Association, comes in. Its research suggests that sugar — not fat — could be the problem. This isn't surprising. Decades of research have suggested that sugar is the real culprit when it comes to weight gain, since in high amounts (and when not balanced with protein and fat, which the body breaks down more slowly) it can lead to dramatic increases and drops in blood sugar. These "crashes" can cause "hanger," or what's known as being angry and hungry at the same time.

Which one is worse for you: sugar or fat? - Business Insider

But the second and third options appeared to be connected with several healthy outcomes. Overall, option B — swapping the calories from saturated fats with calories from monounsaturated fats — was linked with a 27% decrease in death of any kind as well as lower rates of heart disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. And option C — replacing the calories from saturated fats with calories from oily fish and nuts — was linked with a 13% decrease in death from any kind, as well as a reduction in death from neurodegenerative diseases.

Which one is worse for you: sugar or fat? - Business Insider

TheStreet's Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer warned of an overbought stock market. 'We've had such a run and the market is very overbought,' Cramer said. He pointed to the S&P's Proprietary Oscillator as a way to gauge how weak or strong the market is. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record high levels of 2,152.14 and 18,347.67, respectively. The major indexes continued to build on those gains in midday trading Wednesday. The Nasdaq remained above 5,000.

Jim Cramer: The Market Is Very Overbought - TheStreet

It is one of life’s great enigmas: why do we sleep? Now we have the best evidence yet of what sleep is for – allowing housekeeping processes to take place that stop our brains becoming overloaded with new memories. All animals studied so far have been found to sleep, but the reason for their slumber has eluded us. When lab rats are deprived of sleep, they die within a month, and when people go for a few days without sleeping, they start to hallucinate and may have epileptic seizures.

Why do we sleep? Naps might free up space for learning more | New Scientist

Why is all of this important? Cheuk cites studies (and 800-plus years of Japanese longevity) that indicate drinking matcha improves cognitive awareness, concentration, immunity, mood, and overall health.

House of Matcha Boxed Set Review: $80 for a Better Life - Bloomberg

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A 10-year-old boy from Indonesia, who has been labelled the world's fattest child in media reports, is being put on a crash diet as his parents are afraid for his health. At 188kg (414lb), Arya Permana is categorised as morbidly obese. The BBC spoke to his mother Rokayah, in Karawang, Indonesia.

Indonesian mother describes son's battle with obesity - BBC News

"The breakout to the upside from the 15 month trading range has frustrated various traders, most notably the shorts," the note said. "This week, as the breakout took shape, some folks claimed the move was 'constructed,' possibly related to the upcoming expiration." Cashin then highlighted commentary from Keene Little at Options Investor that fleshed out this "conspiracy theory" even more. The first point that Little makes is that the market has been seeing huge gains in overnight trading, immediately opening higher and then barely moving during the day. "This is frustrating for traders on both sides since there's been very little to trade during the day," Little suggested. "It's much easier (cheaper) to manipulate the market higher with overnight futures than it is during RTH (regular trading hours)."

Art Cashin conspiracy theory stock rally - Business Insider

Scientists have managed to prove pomegranates anti-aging potential: intestinal bacteria transform a molecule contained in the fruit with spectacular results. Although tests in humans are still underway, scientists have already published the initial promising results from animal studies in the journal Nature

Pomegranates reveal its powerful anti-aging secret - YouTube

The decline in real interest rates since the financial crisis means the global economy can sustain higher debt burdens than in the past. It is increasingly clear that the fall in interest rates is a structural change, due to factors such as population aging and a slowdown in global productivity growth

The economy is not 'drowning in debt,' despite there being more of it - Business Insider

Being a corporate tax haven can do strange things to your national accounts. Consider the Republic of Ireland, which just reported that its economy expanded by somewhere between 19 and 26 per cent in 2015, depending on whether you count the value of what’s produced in Ireland (gross domestic product) or the value of what’s produced by Irish citizens and companies domiciled in Ireland (gross national product). Neither figure represents economic conditions faced by actual Irish people. In fact, a realistic assessment of the domestic economy suggests most Irish are still worse off than they were eight years ago, whilst some measures suggest there has been no recovery whatsoever since 2010.

Placing Ireland’s economic “recovery” in context | FT Alphaville

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In nearly every category, Wells added to its loan portfolio, indicating a strong desire for credit from both businesses and households. The most encouraging segment is probably commercial and industrial loans, or C&I, which are given to businesses that are looking to make large investments. According to Wells, its C&I loans grew by $39 billion, or 14%, from the year before. Commercial real-estate loans also increased by $10.7 billion, or 8% (which may or may not be a good thing).

Wells Fargo loans good for economy - Business Insider

Trying to predict whether a company will meet, beat or disappoint consensus earnings expectations is anyone's game. To that end, Goldman Sachs has compiled a list of 25 U.S. stocks that it considers its most "out-of-consensus" opportunities.  For 13 companies on the list, Goldman equity analysts believe quarterly earnings will beat consensus estimates. For the other 12 companies, the firm believes earnings will disappoint.

These 6 Stocks Could Beat on Earnings Day and Have Strong Technical Charts to Match - TheStreet

A 91-year-old woman has been questioned by police in Germany — after she filled in the blanks in a piece of modern art based on a crossword puzzle. The pensioner, who has not been named under German privacy law, was questioned under caution a

91-year-old woman fills in crossword at museum - only to discover it was a £60,000 artwork

Forget Brexit, go for raw materials. Citigroup Inc. says that it’s bullish on commodities including oil in 2017 as the impact of the U.K.’s vote to quit the European Union fades away, global growth chugs along and with markets rebalancing investors plow more cash into funds. “Citi is especially bullish commodities for 2017,” analysts led by Ed Morse wrote in an note received on Monday, two months after the New York-based bank said that raw materials’ markets had turned the corner. “The oil market is treading water for now, but the oil price overshot to the downside earlier this year and this is clearly setting the stage for a bullish end to the decade.”

Citigroup Backs Commodities for ‘17 in ‘Especially Bullish’ Call - Bloomberg

The liquidity trap, when monetary policy becomes ineffective at very low or zero interest rates, may be old news but the global dimension of the problem is a new and worrying phenomenon — not least because it’s starting to undermine the usefulness of the global monetary reserve balance, which is mostly debt financed. And here’s the rub: so engrained is the notion saving is always thrifty and good that it’s become extremely hard to articulate why this state of affairs is so disastrous for the global economy.

Why the world needs investment, not money chasing old assets | FT Alphaville

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As it turns out, you can get some of the same benefits of long-distance running and other types of endurance training without ever passing the five-mile mark. That's right. Running fast and hard for five to 10 minutes a day can add years to your life, just as running for hours can. In fact, people who run for less than an hour a week — so long as they get in their few minutes of daily running — get similar benefits in terms of heart health compared with people who run more than three hours a week. That finding squares with recent research showing that short bursts of intense exercise can provide some of the same health benefits as long, endurance-style workouts.

Why you should run a mile instead of a marathon - Business Insider

Working the body to its maximum, some research shows, can reduce the body's natural ability to fend off upper-respiratory infections including colds and the flu. Short bouts of activity, on the other hand, improve immune function. Quick workouts appear to not only reduce your chances of getting sick, but also to reduce the severity of an illness when you do come down with something.

Why you should run a mile instead of a marathon - Business Insider

Before we throw out the ‘drink and sweat 10lbs of water’ technique, consider that Diaz passed his first and third tests, which were administered by a National Anti-Doping Agency approved tester, and failed his second, unapproved test by a crazy margin, signaling a mishandling of his sample or test results. Diaz’s lawyer harped on this point to the Nevada State Athletic Commission to no avail. After Diaz pleaded the fifth to all questions from the NSAC, they slapped him with a five-year suspension and a $165,000 fine... Diaz treats his ADHD using cannabis under California’s medical marijuana law, the nation’s first, arguably its loosest, and largely the reason that many other states create far more restricted medical marijuana programs. Not many states include ADHD as a cannabis-treatable disease, but there’s evidence that it helps. What Diaz describes as keeping “consistent” is really the effect of dopamine management traits in cannabis.

Nick Diaz's five-year ban for weed is master stroke of outdated thinking | Sport | The Guardian

According to Battery University, leaving your phone plugged in when it's fully charged, like you might overnight, is bad for the battery in the long run. Once your smartphone has reached 100% charge, it gets "trickle charges" to keep it at 100% while plugged in. It keeps the battery in a high-stress, high-tension state, which wears down the chemistry within... According to Battery University, "Li-ion does not need to be fully charged, nor is it desirable to do so. In fact, it is better not to fully charge, because a high voltage stresses the battery" and wears it away in the long run... It turns out that the batteries in our smartphones are much happier if you charge them occasionally throughout the day instead of plugging them in for a big charging session when they're empty. Charging your phone when it loses 10% of its charge would be the best-case scenario, according to Battery University. Obviously, that's not practical for most people, so just plug in your smartphone whenever you can. It's fine to plug and unplug it multiple times a day.

The best way to charge your smartphone - Business Insider

During CES Tablo promised its $200 box that tunes into and records OTA TV would eventually get an Apple TV app, and now it has delivered. It already works with boxes like Roku and Fire TV, and on the Apple TV it's brought both live TV and DVR viewing, plus navigation by voice or touch with the Siri Remote. More features are coming in future updates, but if you already have a Tablo box (with the latest updates) and an active subscription you should be good to go. The only question left, is if you'd prefer Tablo's setup or Sling TV, which also launched this week on the Apple TV.

Tablo's live TV and DVR features now work on the Apple TV