Elections

[admin]

As someone from a country deeply steeped in complex coalition politics, I think it is waay too early to celebrate any supposed PNG election result.

Having said that, I also think they matter a good deal less than many seem to think. And I have a feeling much more illustrious people with much more knowledge about what's going on seem to take that view as well, voting with their (amply filled) wallets already..

[Palm]

Latest results show O'Neill continues strong with victories in 4 races and leading now in 22 others. Polye's THE party is having a strong showing and Somare's National Alliance has stagnated and is still winning just 7 races and those are almost all in his home territory. O'Neill has a very broad support. Kavo has widened his lead also:
http://results.pngec.gov.pg/partystanding.html

The National article with O'Neill saying the coalition intact is not real convincing. Hopefully this is the case (that coalition is staying together). Namah is a question mark. He almost has no choice however as the Polye-Somare group has said they will press for enforcing the Supreme Court "violations" against O'Neill and Namah and the rest who supported them. This could cement things for O'Neill as the majority he had during the "storms" last year appears to be largely in place.

By mid-week next week we should have a good read on what's happening.

[jake990037]

Polye led the faction of Somare's NA Party that overthrew Somare last August and has been in O'Neill's govt since then so I'm not sure how he could be part of a group that is threatening to put him too in jail. Though I'm sure weirder things have happened in PNG.

quote='Palm' pid='6952' dateline='1342531601']
Latest results show O'Neill continues strong with victories in 4 races and leading now in 22 others. Polye's THE party is having a strong showing and Somare's National Alliance has stagnated and is still winning just 7 races and those are almost all in his home territory. O'Neill has a very broad support. Kavo has widened his lead also:
http://results.pngec.gov.pg/partystanding.html

The National article with O'Neill saying the coalition intact is not real convincing. Hopefully this is the case (that coalition is staying together). Namah is a question mark. He almost has no choice however as the Polye-Somare group has said they will press for enforcing the Supreme Court "violations" against O'Neill and Namah and the rest who supported them. This could cement things for O'Neill as the majority he had during the "storms" last year appears to be largely in place.

By mid-week next week we should have a good read on what's happening.
[/quote]

[Palm]

Not sure we can say Polye led any charge. What happened was that Somare was declared absent and not eligible to be PM. It was expected that Polye would declare his interest in being PM. But he hesitated due to fear of crossing Somare and his camp. When that happened he lost the confidence of those in parliament that would have supported him. Up stepped O'Neill and Namah, and the rest is history.

Here is a piece from the East Asian Forum that explains what happened last August:
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/08/11/...r-o-neill/

Note the part that says:
"Tensions grew among government ministers. Public attention was focused on the Polye–Abal feud within Somare’s party, and it became clear there would be some form of challenge to government. Under the Constitution, a vote of no confidence had to be initiated within days of parliament sitting on 2 August, but who would be the new PM? The issue came to a head at an Opposition meeting on 1 August, and it seemed that Polye had majority support among the alternate government camp for the top job. However, he reportedly baulked at the position — perhaps to avoid in-fighting with Abal, from his own province. O’Neill seized the moment, positioning himself for his formal nomination as prime minister. Polye is now his treasurer."

I can't find the article again from yesterday that mentioned the possibility of Polye's banding with Somare, but it mentions no concern with Polye being considered a traitor to Somare. He took a position with O'Neill as Treasurer, but was not part of the Somare overthrow since he backed away from the process that brought O'Neill in as PM.

Polye led the faction of Somare's NA Party that overthrew Somare last August and has been in O'Neill's govt since then so I'm not sure how he could be part of a group that is threatening to put him too in jail. Though I'm sure weirder things have happened in PNG.

quote='Palm' pid='6952' dateline='1342531601']
Latest results show O'Neill continues strong with victories in 4 races and leading now in 22 others. Polye's THE party is having a strong showing and Somare's National Alliance has stagnated and is still winning just 7 races and those are almost all in his home territory. O'Neill has a very broad support. Kavo has widened his lead also:
http://results.pngec.gov.pg/partystanding.html

The National article with O'Neill saying the coalition intact is not real convincing. Hopefully this is the case (that coalition is staying together). Namah is a question mark. He almost has no choice however as the Polye-Somare group has said they will press for enforcing the Supreme Court "violations" against O'Neill and Namah and the rest who supported them. This could cement things for O'Neill as the majority he had during the "storms" last year appears to be largely in place.

By mid-week next week we should have a good read on what's happening.

[/quote]

[jake990037]

Thanks for the clarification. Interesting. My impression is that Polye has been positioning himself quietly into a powerful position. I've generally thought he was O'Neill's main challenge, though for a while I thought Namah and his $$$ would pose a threat too.

[Palm]

Good thing though is in the end a Polye in office will not be seen as a negative for partners or IOC. As you say Namah is a wild card and he seems to be out of the picture as far as being PM. I think he was rattling swords in desperation trying to side with Duma after he had already made a pact with O'Neill. He and Duma are somewhat renegades who I think have/had big dollar signs in their eyes thinking they could somehow pull off a power play. Not enough support I don't think. I think you're right with Polye; he is the main threat to O'Neill returning as PM. And neither is a negative for IOC; that's why we are seeing pps gradually rise; the election question is becoming answered in a positive way.