BGFV

[admin]

Well another run-up that looks like running out of steam:

Deutsche Bank upgraded it to a buy with a $16.50 target only a week ago, which it already exceeded at $16.99 (the charts are self-updating). Since early June, the stock has doubled. Analysts expect 52 cents per share in profit this year (down from 79 cent per share last year), rising to 65 cents per share next year.

We think that the DB upgrade and (modestly) increasing estimates (see below) are well priced in:

In fact, over the past month, current quarter estimates have risen from 28 cents per share to 30 cents per share, while current year estimates have risen from 54 cents per share to 57 cents per share.

Big 5 Sporting (BGFV): Strong Industry, Solid Earnings Estimate Revisions

There are a few other positives though:

• Liquidation of a few competitors like Sports Chalet and The Sports Authority
• Announcement of a $25M share repurchase program
• Quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share
• Good increases in same store sales:

Mr. Miller continued, “We are off to a strong start in the third quarter, with same store sales for the quarter to date up in the high mid-single-digit range as we are beginning to benefit from numerous competitive store closures in our markets and customer recognition of the convenience, strong product assortment and value that Big 5 Sporting Goods offers.

Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation Announces Fiscal 2016 Second Quarter Results | Seeking Alpha

Still, we think the good news is priced in for now and the shares need cooling off. There is simply not all that much leverage in the business model. They're not opening up a whole lot of new stores, for instance. They presently have 435 stores, and in fact:

For the fiscal 2016 full year, the Company currently anticipates opening approximately five to eight new stores and closing approximately ten stores.

Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation Announces Fiscal 2016 Second Quarter Results | Seeking Alpha

Retail isn't exactly booming in the US either and the same store sales increase will be difficult to increase further.

But, beware, with shorting you can always run into a sharp object like a take-over bid.

[admin]

We were on the money with this one (article), it has now corrected siginficantly at $15.50.

[admin]

From Zolmax:

Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. (NASDAQ:BGFV) major shareholder Stadium Capital Management Llc sold 297,667 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, November 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $18.67, for a total value of $5,557,442.89. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. Large shareholders that own at least 10% of a company’s stock are required to disclose their transactions with the SEC.

Stadium Capital Management Llc also recently made the following trade(s):

• On Monday, November 7th, Stadium Capital Management Llc sold 271,486 shares of Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. stock. The shares were sold at an average price of $17.74, for a total value of $4,816,161.64.
• On Friday, August 26th, Stadium Capital Management Llc sold 17,294 shares of Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. stock. The shares were sold at an average price of $12.81, for a total value of $221,536.14.
• On Monday, August 22nd, Stadium Capital Management Llc sold 39,188 shares of Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. stock. The shares were sold at an average price of $13.05, for a total value of $511,403.40.
• On Wednesday, August 17th, Stadium Capital Management Llc sold 38,716 shares of Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. stock. The shares were sold at an average price of $13.01, for a total value of $503,695.16.
• On Friday, August 12th, Stadium Capital Management Llc sold 20,412 shares of Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. stock. The shares were sold at an average price of $13.05, for a total value of $266,376.60.