Links for October 24

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In the past decade or so, a number of central banks have purchased assets financed by the creation of central bank reserves as a tool for loosening monetary policy – a policy often known as ‘quantitative easing’ or ‘QE’. The first half of the paper reviews the international evidence on the impact on financial markets and economic activity of this policy. It finds that these central bank balance sheet expansions had a discernible and significant impact on financial markets and the economy. The second half of the paper provides new empirical analysis on the macroeconomic impact of central bank balance sheet expansions, across time and countries. It finds three key results. First, it is only when central bank balance sheet expansions are used as a monetary policy tool that they have a significant macro-economic impact. Second, there is evidence for the US that the effectiveness of QE may vary over time, depending on the state of the economy and liquidity of the financial system. And third, QE can have strong spill-over effects cross-border, acting mainly via financial channels. For example, the impact of US QE on UK economic activity may be as large as the impact on US economic activity.

Staff working paper 624: QE: the story so far – Andrew G Haldane, Matt Roberts-Sklar, Tomasz Wieladek and Chris Young | Bank of England

Today, countries with negative policy rates make up almost a quarter of global gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.

What are negative interest rates? - Business Insider

As Japan's entrepreneurial spirit fades, the elderly make up a rising share of people going into business for themselves. About a third of new entrepreneurs were 60 or older in 2012, the latest year for which data was available, according to the Small and Medium Enterprise Agency, a part of the trade ministry. That compares with 8 percent three decades earlier.

Elderly Make Up Nearly a Third of Japan's New Entrepreneurs - Bloomberg

Coal-fired power plants are facing increasing financial distress due to low prices in the Texas electricity market, a trend that is unlikely to reverse, according to a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, The Beginning of the End. The pressure on coal is coming primarily from cheap natural gas and low-cost renewables, and to a lesser extent environmental regulations, according to IEEFA. The report evaluated seven large coal plants owned by merchant power producers and public power utilities. They total more than 8 gigawatts of capacity, about 40 percent of the total coal capacity in Texas.

5 Charts That Show How Coal Is Getting Killed in Texas | Greentech Media

In a study financed by the Education Endowment Foundation, the University of Bristol assessed the performance of 10,600 students approaching GCSEs in disadvantaged areas to see what effect financial incentives (worth up to £80 per half-term) or non-financial enticements (such as vouchers for gig tickets) would have on behaviour, schoolwork, homework and attendance. While incentives had little effect on strong pupils, underperformers improved exam grades and pass marks by up to 10%. The intervention had particularly substantial effects on science and maths GCSE results for up to half of those involved, closing 50% of the attainment gap between pupils eligible for free school meals and other students.

Honey, I bribed the kids. And now they’re star pupils | Barbara Ellen | Opinion | The GuardianBrexit: leading banks set to pull out of UK early next year | Politics | The Guardian

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There are four arguments for bullishness, Goldman notes: attractive valuations relative to developed markets, repaired current account vulnerabilities, a bottoming in commodity prices and developed-market fiscal stimulus, which “would benefit global growth prospects.” For these reasons, Goldman’s “tactical EM views” include a preference for “exposure in Brazil, Korea, Taiwan and China equities.” However:

Topping Goldman’s Emerging Market Risk List: China - Emerging Markets Daily - Barrons.com

The original x360 was a good laptop, and it gave HP a strong foundation on which to build. The new model takes what was good about the old one and makes it even better, both with a remarkable improvement to the size and weight and the addition of highly desirable new features. This means the new Kaby Lake HP Spectre x360 is the PC laptop to beat. The size and features make for a compelling mix, and the pricing is competitive, too, It starts at $1,049 for a Core i5, 8GB RAM, and 256GB storage, and it tops out at $1,499 for a Core i7, 16GB RAM, and 1TB SSD.

HP’s new Spectre x360 is probably the best PC laptop around | Ars Technica

After reporting double-digit year-over-year declines for the past two quarters, Apple is expected to report on Tuesday that it shipped 44.8 million iPhones, down from 48.04 million a year ago, according to analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. The company is also expected to report earnings of $1.65 per share on revenue of $46.9 billion, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. That would be down from fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $1.96 per share on sales of $51.5 billion this time last year.

Apple's iPhone sales may fall for a third-straight quarter. Here's what it means

Americans have a big decision to make in next month's presidential election, but markets don't seem to know how to account for it, according to Raoul Pal, a former hedge fund manager. "Volatility is way too low considering the outcomes and how nervous markets are about it," Pal told Business Insider's Matt Turner on Monday in a Facebook Live interview. "I always have an expression, which is that suppressed volatility leads to hyper volatility," added Pal, who is the founder of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor. "Once you suppress things this much, whether it's central banks or whatever is suppressing it, the moment the lid is taken off, the genie comes out of the bottle, the volatility explodes."

RAOUL PAL ON US ELECTION: 'Volatility is way too low' - Business Insider

Women have caught up with men in the amount of alcohol they drink and are doing increasing amounts of damage to their health as a result, according to a global study that looked at the consumption habits of four million people over a period of over a century. The change is partly the result of successful marketing campaigns and the creation of sweeter products aimed at young women or girls, as well as cuts in price, say health campaigners. Some studies have even suggested that younger women may be out-drinking men, according to the study’s authors.

Women now drink as much alcohol as men, global study finds | Society | The Guardian

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Germany Inc. Sits on $500 Billion in Cash Amid Weak Outlook The country’s nonfinancial businesses have piled up around $500 billion in cash and deposits

Germany Inc. Sits on $500 Billion in Cash Amid Weak Outlook - WSJ

Apple's enormous cash hoard grew to $237.6 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, up $6.1 billion from the previous quarter. If the company's massive cash pile was its own company, it would be the seventh largest in the S&P 500 and the fourteenth largest public company in the world.

Apple's cash hoard swells to $237.6 billion, a record

"Professionally, I’ve never really made any mistakes," Baba said in an interview, sitting next to a life-size R2-D2 and a soccer jersey signed by Japan midfielder Keisuke Honda. "No matter how small a matter, I’ve always delivered something decent regardless of the deadline or the circumstances. But that’s probably a given for anyone who has made it to my position." Baba says virtual reality's most significant feature is its ability to trick users into thinking others are physically present. That will soon let humans communicate in a way that approximates face-to-face conversations.

Japan Billionaire Who Can Do No Wrong Sets Sights on VR - Bloomberg

A war-torn state and a country ruled by an oppressive military junta for decades are home to the world's most generous people, research suggests. People in Iraq are the kindest to strangers, while Myanmar's residents give the most away, according to the CAF World Giving Index 2016. In the last month, eight in 10 Iraqis have helped someone they don't know, with Libyans helping almost as many. During the same period, 91% of those in Myanmar have given money to charity. In comparison, 63% of Americans - the second most generous overall - have donated money, with 73% helping a stranger.

Which country is the most generous in the world? - BBC News

That this is football's apogee is not seriously in dispute by anyone with an anima. Yet it might legitimately be argued that this also represents the apex of all sport and, if you're feeling particularly grandiloquent, all art. Group art, at least, for it is difficult to imagine a collective exhibition of greatness to match Brazil's fourth and final goal in the 1970 World Cup final. If Blur had performed with such effulgence at Glastonbury, you'd still be drooling over your commemorative 128-page Guardian pullout and honing a story which proves that you, along with the other seven million, really were there. The signature flourishes have set up camp in the mind's eye. Jairzinho goading Giacinto Facchetti with the coiled menace of a nightclub bully asking someone what they're looking at; Pelé deliberately, tenderly delaying his pass, like a skilled lover teasing and teasing and teasing some more before pushing the exact button you wanted, and another that you didn't even know you had; Carlos Alberto - the bloody right-back - both feet miles off the ground, smashing a shot at the speed of light past Enrico Albertosi. Beauty is power, of course, but power has never been as beautiful as it was in the moments after the ball whistled off Alberto's boot. Yet there is sometimes a tendency to forget that Clodoaldo – not so much the fifth Beatle as the sixth Brazilian (everyone can name the other five members of their offensive sextet) – beat four Italian players, one of them without even touching the ball, at the start of the move.

The Joy of Six: Great team goals | Rob Smyth | Sport | The Guardian

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The short interest data have come out for the October 14 settlement date. It is important to note that semiconductor trends are considered to be leading indicators of technology and broader electronics demand. A strong rally in the tech sector largely pushed many of these companies to new highs, as the Dow and S&P have both hit new all-time highs. But currently markets are retreating, begging the question whether this tech rally is over. The short interest might suggest that it is.

Short Interest Rises Across Major Semiconductors, With One Key Exception - Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) - 24/7 Wall St.

Yes, it’s true that since 1994 manufacturing labor productivity has doubled. But if you measure something called “multifactor productivity” you get a different story. Multifactor productivity takes into account how efficiently a factory uses all its inputs -- not just labor but also equipment, buildings, energy, purchased parts and services, software, and research and development. Because it includes a wider scope of inputs and costs, multifactor productivity is a better indicator of how innovative and competitive an industry really is. Here's what the measure, which is adjusted for inflation, looks like for durable goods and non-durables manufacturing since 1987

Manufacturing's Productivity Myth - Bloomberg View

The "I heart NY" shirt may be iconic, but a Japanese company wants to bring souvenirs into the 21st century. Tokyo-based iJet is using 3D printing to make impressive 3D Map replicas of its city. The entire city is segmented into 100 tiles, each of which are incredibly detailed and fit in the palm of your hand. The company funded the project with a short-but-successful Kickstarter, where it more than doubled its $10,000 goal, and hopes to take advantage of the masses coming to Japan for the 2020 Olympics. iJet isn't the only one preparing for the games, with Mitsubishi working on holographic tech to liven Tokyo up and the Olympic Broadcasting Service hoping to air the games in 8K resolution.

This 3D printed puzzle gives you the best view of Tokyo - CNET

Cash flow from operations during the quarter was $424 million from increased sales, coupled with careful expense management. Free cash flow was $176 million as Tesla invested $248 million in capital expenditures to increase production capacity, accelerate Gigafactory construction, and expand customer support infrastructure. With such strong cash flows this quarter, the firm was able to reduce the balances on its borrowing facilities by $178 million and settle $422 million of conversions on its 2018 convertible notes, strengthening its balance sheet. After this $600 million in debt repayment, cash and cash equivalents totaled $3.1 billion at quarter end, versus $3.2 billion at the end of Q2.

Why This Tesla Earnings Report Is So Incredible - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) - 24/7 Wall St.

Battery packs are typically either portable, or powerful enough to charge more than a smartphone, but not both. The 35-ounce Plug, however, boasts a capacity sufficient to recharge a DSLR 30 times, a laptop 3 times, or a smartphone 28 times while still being slim enough to slide into a bag. Designed by California-based ChargeTech Enterprises, Plug has surpassed its original Indiegogo campaign goal over 2,000-fold. After hitting its initial goal, ChargeTech entered production of the Plug on October 12, and extended the campaign by another 30 days. Despite the device’s large capacity, the Plug measures closer to a hardcover book than a high capacity battery at just 1.6 inches deep, 8.6 inches tall, and 5.6 inches wide.

Indiegogo: The Plug is a Little Battery with a Big Capacity | Digital Trends

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Computers are keeping secrets. A team from Google Brain, Google’s deep learning project, has shown that machines can learn how to protect their messages from prying eyes. Researchers Martín Abadi and David Andersen demonstrate that neural networks, or “neural nets” – computing systems that are loosely based on artificial neurons – can work out how to use a simple encryption technique. In their experiment, computers were able to make their own form of encryption using machine learning, without being taught specific cryptographic algorithms. The encryption was very basic, especially compared to our current human-designed systems. Even so, it is still an interesting step for neural nets, which the authors state “are generally not meant to be great at cryptography”.

Google's neural networks invent their own encryption | New Scientist

Worker pay in the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in the third quarter, matching the gain in the previous two periods, the Labor Department said Friday in its release of the employment cost index. The gain in the ECI matched the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists, with estimates ranging from increases of 0.5 percent to 0.7 percent. The gauge measures employer-paid taxes such as Social Security and Medicare in addition to the costs of wages and benefits. Total compensation, which includes wages and benefits, rose 2.3 percent over the past 12 months, the same year-over-year pace as in the second quarter.

Worker Compensation in U.S. Up 0.6% for Third Straight Quarter - Bloomberg

Federal Reserve official Charles Evans has added his voice to forecasts for up to three interest-rate increases by the end of 2017. The bond market shows traders aren’t ready for that many. Chicago Fed President Evans joined San Francisco counterpart John Williams, who last week said he supported one rate move this year and “a few” the next. Pacific Investment Management Co. said this month U.S. rates may rise two or three times over the period. Futures contracts show traders are banking on one move, with the odds of a second one being no more than a coin flip.

Bond Market Shows Traders Aren't Ready for Evans's Three Hikes - Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs estimates that a Tesla Model S with a 70kWh battery uses 63 kilograms of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) – more than the amount of lithium in 10,000 cell phones. Further, for every 1% increase in battery electric vehicle (BEV) market penetration, there is an increase in lithium demand by around 70,000 tonnes LCE/year. Lithium prices have recently spiked, but they may begin sliding in 2019 if more supply comes online.

Materials needed to fuel electric car boom - Business Insider

A Wada report into the anti-doping operation employed at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games has criticised “serious failings”, with up to half of all planned drug tests aborted on some days because the athletes could not be found.

Wada reveals up to 50% of drug tests at 2016 Olympic Games had to be aborted | Sport | The Guardian