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November 2016
#1

We're covering the short in AKAM

  • b500AKAM $68.70

That's $1.30 profit for a few days trading for a total of $650

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#2
We could have waited half an hour.. $68.10... Smile

This wasn't a 'conviction' short, simply a trading one as we noticed the extreme overbought situation.
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#3
  • We're shorting 500 CPLA at $76.85
  • We think the rally post earnings is running out of steam and has been a bit much already
  • This is a short-term trading short
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#4

Here is the static chart from when we shorted ($76.85, as it happens):

And here is the dynamic (self-updating) one so one can see what happens next:

CPLA Capella Education Co. daily Stock Chart

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#5
Theresa May is heading for a rebellion over her Brexit strategy after the high court ruled that the UK could not leave the European union without the permission of the British parliament. Three senior judges ruled on Thursday that the government could not press ahead with triggering article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, the formal process for beginning Brexit, without first consulting MPs and peers in the Commons and Lords.
The judgment ruled: “The most fundamental rule of the UK constitution is that parliament is sovereign and can make and unmake any law it chooses ... By making and unmaking treaties the crown [ie the government] creates legal effects on the plane of international law, but in doing so it does not and cannot change domestic law. It cannot without the intervention of parliament confer rights on individuals or deprive individuals of rights.”

Theresa May faces potential MP revolt following article 50 ruling | Politics | The Guardian

This is sort of hilarious. One of the things Brexit was to do is to restore British sovereignty. It could now falter on.. British sovereignty.

You can't make this stuff up..

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#6

It is of course all about the election tomorrow:

The events of the past ten days — which have seen stocks, currencies, and commodities fluctuate in response to changes in the U.S. presidential race — drive this message home: elections can matter for financial markets, even if in some cases the effects are only temporary. With the U.S. election just one day away, Bloomberg compiled a cross-asset guide to how Wall Street strategists predict the markets will react in the event that Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton wins the presidency. We've also included a separate scenario on how they might move if the Democrats recaptured the Senate and the House of Representatives along with the presidency; a Trump victory likely entails that Republicans would keep control of both houses of Congress.

Here's Your Cheat Sheet For How Markets Will React to the Election - Bloomberg

Deutsche Bank thinks European stock markets could tank by as much as 10% if Donald Trump wins Tuesday's US election, while shares could jump up to 5% if rival Hilary Clinton is successful. Markets around the world are likely to experience big moves when the final result comes in, with the election seen as one of the two biggest global political events of 2016 alongside Brexit. The Times reports that Barclays and HSBC will both keep trading desks open all night to react to news as it comes in.

Deutsche Bank on European stocks' reaction to Clinton or Trump victory - Business Insider

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#7

Trump the Keynesian?

Fighting off the next recession, according to Grant Williams, the author the research letter “Things That Make You Go Hmmm” and co-founder of RealVision Television

Because, we were for a long time, 7 years, without a recession in the US,” he continued. “We are overdue one. And some of the data that’s been coming out in the last couple of quarters suggests that we are very close to one.” Following the 2008 financial crisis, central bankers unleashed ultra easy monetary policy. One of the efforts involved the Federal Reserve making large-scale purchases of bonds, aka quantitative easing. In the eight years since the crisis, interest rates remain at or near zero, and in some parts of the world they’re negative. The Fed’s policies were meant to encourage the consumer to spend and thus stimulate the economy. “It seems to me at the grassroots the consumer is not doing too well. As goes consumption, so goes the US economy. I think [Trump] definitely needs to be weary of this.” View photos President-elect Donald J. Trump More Williams told Yahoo Finance that if Trump is aggressively stimulatory and we get some reflation “maybe he can hold it off.”

Donald Trump appears doomed to inherit the next recession

Except... if he turns into a super Keynesian and embarks on a combination of tax cuts and additional spending. On infrastructure, no less. Which is what his political adversaries have clamored for for years, but this insn't probably all that it seems:

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#8

We take a loss on the 500 shorted CPLA, a position which we took at the beginning of the month (at $76.85).

  • Cover 500 CPLA at $84.65

The rally was running out of steam, but then Trump won the elections and there is a new optimism about lesser regulatory burden on the private educators like CPLA.

We still think the shares have gone up waay too much in such a short space of time, but it might take some time for normality to re-establish itself and that might not involve a significant fall from these levels.

Should have used a stop-loss, important lesson..

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