Recent growth has been driven by proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, which now represent almost three-quarters of megawatts shipped. Solid-oxide fuel cell (SOFC) shipments stood at 76 megawatts, dominated by Bloom Energy’s data center business. Phosphoric acid fuel cells (PAFC) grew to 81 megawatts last year, leveraging strength in South Korea. PAFC technology has found a niche in data centers, generating on-site electricity and pumping the oxygen-depleted fuel cell exhaust into buildings for preventative fire protection.
The success of PAFC has been partly at the expense of molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) technology, which has retrenched in recent years, but could rebound in 2018. Alkaline fuel cells (AFC) and direct methanol fuel cells (DMFC) represent a very small proportion of shipped megawatts..
Fuel Cells in 2017 Are Where Solar Was in 2002 | Greentech Media
While Chinese fuel cell vehicles currently use internationally produced membrane electrode assemblies for their PEM fuel cells (most notably from Canadian firms Ballard and Hydrogenics), local companies are developing their own aggressively priced designs. As these improve, they will pull prices down, similar to what happened in the solar sector as Chinese production ramped. While this would hasten fuel cell costs down the learning curve, facilitating sector growth, it could put existing suppliers in a precarious position.
Fuel Cells in 2017 Are Where Solar Was in 2002 | Greentech Media
At its December 6 investor and analyst conference, Latham, New York-based Plug Power reported a historical learning rate of 25 percent. Management expects to reduce costs 40 percent in the next five years -- roughly what would be expected from a quadrupling of cumulative production. Startups sometimes make overly aggressive forecasts, but blue chip companies are less prone to doing so. Toyota has also signaled dramatic cost reductions. The Mirai fuel cell system was reported to cost $50,000 in 2015 at a production volume of 3,000 units per year. Toyota’s next-generation fuel cell system has a significantly lower cost target of $13,000 to $17,000 in the 2020 timeframe, with rumored target volumes of 30,000 units per year. While achieving further cost reductions will be difficult, Toyota still aims to make its fuel cell system as cheap as a gasoline hybrid system by 2025. Judging by today's price differentials between hybrid and non-hybrid vehicle models on the Toyota website, the sticker price premium for a future fuel cell car could be in the $3,000-$4,000 range.
Fuel Cells in 2017 Are Where Solar Was in 2002 | Greentech Media