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February 2017
#1

We have a couple of new articles out on the flaring up of the eurozone crisis

  • Greek debt is simply unsustainable, even the IMF says so.
  • The only way to have a chance of defusing this time bomb is to exchange debt relief for the IMF reform program but politics and discord are preventing this.
  • There is a toxic mix brewing with other countries on the brink and looming political instability and discord within the ECB.

If You Kick The Can Long Enough, It Becomes A Bomb | Seeking Alpha

  • Italy's economy isn't expected to return to its 2007 output level until the mid 2020s.
  • While Italy would benefit from an Italian Margaret Thatcher, there are few good options left to save its economy.
  • Not even leaving the euro, now openly discussed, is without problems.
  • Meanwhile, debt and banking problems persist and the risks abound.

Will Italy's Lost Decades End With A Bang? | Seeking Alpha

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#2

And then there is this..

The Netherlands won’t maintain participation in the Greek bailout if the International Monetary Fund withdraws its support, raising the stakes in a quarrel between the fund and the nation’s European creditors over how to implement an aid package. “IMF involvement is necessary,” Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister, told lawmakers on Wednesday in The Hague. “The majority in parliament is very clear, that if the IMF will not take part or withdraws, then support for the program will be lost.”

Dutch Say Greek Program Involvement Contingent on IMF Support - Bloomberg

And this..

Markets are dreading the outside chance that right-wing anti-immigrant Marine Le Pen could score a surprise victory in France's upcoming presidential elections, particularly in the wake of Donald Trump’s huge electoral upset and the pro-Brexit vote in the UK. So much so that investors have started pushing up French bond yields, which used to trade more like a safe-haven during the height of the eurozone crisis. That's why the latest outbreak of panic over Greece’s debt sustainability, sparked by a long-run assessment published by the International Monetary Fund, could not come at a worse time for champions of a moderate, integrated and liberal Europe.

Greece’s crisis flare-up couldn’t come at a worse time — for France - Business Insider

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#3

Couple of new articles, the first sees a correlation between stocks and Trump's popularity ratings, the second an old favorite..

  • There seem to be two Trump's, one that's good for markets and one that's bad for markets.
  • Investors find it difficult to make sense of this which is adding to a sense of uncertainty and wildly different assessments.
  • There are a few ways to trade this though.

Trade The Trump Popularity Index | Seeking Alpha

  • Shares of Ellie Mae sold off after the Trump victory as people feared higher mortgage rates would cut their growth.
  • But the company has demonstrated before that they can grow even with headwinds from the market, so the worries were overblown.
  • They are also investing to service even more of the mortgage origination market; this remains a terrific company with a winning platform.

Ellie Mae Remains A Good Company That's Terrifically Valued - Ellie Mae, Inc. (NYSEMKT:ELLI) | Seeking Alpha

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