Equipment testing in PNG

[KingKongFong]

Conspiracy Theory #2 (while we're playing this game):

The wet testing is set for PNG, but the equipment never actually left Oman. The equipment "arrives" in PNG, and then anti ocean mining riots take place during the election. The port is over-run, and the warehouses holding the equipment are burned to the ground. The equipment is damaged beyond repair. The pps plummets to nothing, and the company goes into bankruptcy/insolvency, and dissolves.

However, like I said, the equipment never left Oman, and this was all a ruse on the part of MB and Metallo, who start up Nautilus 2.0, this time a privately held company, who begin mining next year.

[saitham]

Conspiracy Theorie #3:

Wet testing in PNG will be done successfully and afterwads the equipment will be shiped to China, where it arrives on time and without any damage. In China also everything goes well and according to schedule the vessel will set sails to arrive in PNG - again, on time to start production in Q1 2019. PPS will smoothly go up till, lets say 1,5$.

Sounds unrealistic, doesn't it? Yes, conspiracy #1 and #2 are probably more likely, you must be right. ;-)

[KingKongFong]

Conspiracy Theorie #3:

Wet testing in PNG will be done successfully and afterwads the equipment will be shiped to China, where it arrives on time and without any damage. In China also everything goes well and according to schedule the vessel will set sails to arrive in PNG - again, on time to start production in Q1 2019. PPS will smoothly go up till, lets say 1,5$.

Sounds unrealistic, doesn't it? Yes, conspiracy #1 and #2 are probably more likely, you must be right. ;-)

pps goes to 25$, FTFY

[saitham]

660 Mio Shares x 25$ = 16,500 Mio$ market cap!? seems a bit too optimistic for my taste.

[GGGGG]

Conspiracy theory: They're trying to make it seem like things are going smoothly so we buy at 0.17 PPS but they'll announce a failure to find financing dropping the price to .06 and scalping away with our cash?

There is an easier way to do it.  Another share offering of 4 or more shares at .06 for every outstanding share.  Of course, then there might be like 3.5 billion shares outstanding, so a reverse split will be in order.  After the dilution Nautilus will be controlled by 2 or 3 largest shareholders.  And the financing issue will be resolved until after at least 2020.

[KingKongFong]

660 Mio Shares x 25$ = 16,500 Mio$ market cap!? seems a bit too optimistic for my taste.

Market cap of 16.5 billion would be on par with major mining companies.

[Monk3]

They are not going to do another share offering they tried and failed. I don't think Metallo or MB are interested in investing $250 million more.

There is a good chance they are in negotiations for debt financing that is contingent on successful wet testing. That may be why they shipped them to PNG and and re-started the wet testing program. At least that is what I am hoping for.

[Classicact]

They are not going to do another share offering they tried and failed. I don't think Metallo or MB are interested in investing $250 million more. There is a good chance they are in negotiations for debt financing that is contingent on successful wet testing. That may be why they shipped them to PNG and and re-started the wet testing program. At least that is what I am hoping for.

Hey Monk, While we have read a few good takes on what might be happening I tend to lean more toward your theory, financing success in terms of timing is getting a little intense.  That is why I would agree that potenial investors may want NUS to move all aspects they can to shorter timetables/ timelines.

Having said that, a very close second is PNG Gov't whispering about an additional 15 % investment in NUS ears if they bring the wet testing/hype and promotion home to herald in important new opportunities for short and long term employment  in PNG.  The election is only incidential right???

[jeremiahj13]

Okay monk, your theory is music to my ear.

However, don't they need a financing decision in June? I saw the wet testing is projected to take 5-8 months ? So will they get denied financing because of the length of the trials ?

[GGGGG]

660 Mio Shares x 25$ = 16,500 Mio$ market cap!? seems a bit too optimistic for my taste.

Market cap of 16.5 billion would be on par with major mining companies.

FWIW, I estimate Nautilus is currently at 709 million shares including options, going to 800s million when stop gap financing is done.   Nautilus needs $200 million or so, which at Nautilus current market cap of $100 million if done through by selling new shares would triple the share count.  On a diluted basis a guess is that the $25  would be say $7 or less.  But then again $7 is a massive improvement in the current price, but is also a kind of best case scenario.    

It is also possible that deep sea mining might, like deep sea oil drilling, be more expensive than terrestrial mining and turn out not to be cost effective, even if there are comparatively few environmental problems.  I would also tend to think PNG will want a large cut in terms of taxes, fees and whatever.