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Links for May 15, 2017
#1
Equity volatility is starting to evoke comparisons to Snow White -- and for good reason. With implied price swings at the lowest levels in more than 20 years, traders are wondering if anything can awaken stocks from their slumber. In this regard, equities are far from alone. Given how nearly every asset class is seeing subdued levels of realized volatility, it’s more like the princess and all her seven dwarfs are named Sleepy.

Mirror, Mirror, Which Asset Class Is the Sleepiest of Them All? - Bloomberg

George Soros's hedge fund Soros Fund Management placed a big bet on Snap Inc. SNAP, +8.36% over the past quarter while dumping its position in Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -0.35% according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing late Monday. Soros reported a nearly 1.7-million share stake in Snap. Meanwhile, Soros dumped his positions in Amazon, Abbott Labs ABT, +0.18% Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL, +1.06% and eBay Inc. EBAY, +0.32% Soros also took a new stake in ConocoPhillips COP, +1.00% and FireEye Inc. FEYE, +7.51% while adding to positions in Facebook Inc. FB, -0.09% Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. HPE, +0.58% and Mondelez International Inc. MDLZ, +2.09%

Soros places big bet on Snap, dumps Amazon stake - MarketWatch

We have 4.4% unemployment, lower than Reagan ever got it. Last Friday’s inflation report showed core inflation still under 2% a year; liberal economist Dean Baker points out that inflation excluding housing is below 1%Housing prices are up about 6% in the last year. And in one of the last vestiges of 2008’s crisis receding, new household formation by homeowners is even up — more millennials are confident enough to leave Mom’s basement..

In spite of Trump, it’s morning in America again - MarketWatch

Olathe, Kansas, became a global magnet for tech talent, thanks to plentiful jobs, cheap housing, and good schools. Then someone opened fire on a pair of Indian-born engineers.

What an Immigrant Murder in Kansas Says About America - Bloomberg

It’s now clear that cyberattacks are a fact of life for corporations and governments. What’s less clear are the winners and losers among companies focused on stopping the digital break-ins. News about the WannaCry digital extortion attack that crippled hundreds of thousands computers worldwide caused predictable stock market euphoria on Monday. As tends to happen when there is a highly public cyberattack, share prices of cybersecurity technology specialists such as Palo Alto Networks, Proofpoint and Fortinet climbed.

Cyberattacks Are Certain. Cybersecurity Business Is Not. - Bloomberg Gadfly

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#2
Investors and the Federal Reserve may have grown too comfortable with gradualism — raising interest rates at a pace that is not too fast, not too slow, but just right. The outlook could abruptly shift if global growth gains momentum and U.S. unemployment sinks much lower. Markets look complacent. Prices in interest-rate futures show almost a 90 percent probability of a hike in June, according to the CME Group in Chicago. While investors have been moving toward another increase by the end of the year, they're not entirely convinced, according to Bloomberg calculations. Volatility has also slumped across different classes of financial assets, with a Merrill Lynch index that gauges options prices on Treasuries is near its lowest levels in data going back to 1988.

Fed Plan for Gradual Rate Hikes Is Starting to Look Complacent - Bloomberg

Top officials from two U.S. government economic-statistics agencies said their measurement tools are understating growth and overstating some components of inflation by modest amounts, while cautioning that this doesn’t explain the sluggish expansion in recent years. “The Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis agree that price index mismeasurement continues to lead to understated growth in real output over time,” five current and former officials from the agencies wrote in a paper published May 3 in the American Economic Association’s Journal of Economic Perspectives and presented last week at a meeting of the BEA’s advisory committee.

U.S. Stats Officials Say Measurements of GDP, Inflation Are Off - Bloomberg

But we share far more than we perhaps intend when we check into establishments, share news stories and ‘like’ products publicly on Facebook, studies shows. After you “like” just 10 Facebook pages, advertisers (or political campaigns) can get to know you as well as a colleague, according to research from Cambridge University in the U.K., and after 70 “likes” as much can be deduced about you as a close friend knows. And after 150 “likes”? You’ve essentially given up as much about yourself as your parents know. (Users, of course, can make their likes private).

The shocking things you reveal about yourself when you ‘like’ things on Facebook - MarketWatch

Seth Klarman, the value investing giant who draws comparisons to Warren Buffett, bought large stakes in two Apple suppliers during the first quarter, according to an SEC filing Friday after the market close. Klarman's hedge fund, Baupost, acquired 5.2 million shares of Qualcomm worth $299 million and 7.2 million shares of Qorvo worth $493 million, according to the March quarter 13F filing.

Value investing giant who takes after Buffett just bought big stakes in two Apple suppliers

With fluffy faces, a timid demeanour and diminutive size, some animals look about as far from being dangerous as it is possible to imagine. Some seem almost helpless in the face of predators. Others, encumbered with clumsy appendages, appear almost too ridiculous to be much of a threat. Yet despite their cute, silly or feeble appearance, evolution has gifted a handful of animals with special abilities that make them a force to be reckoned with. These are nature's secret ninjas.

BBC - Earth - The animals that look helpless but are secretly fearsome

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#3
The Accenture report looked at 12 countries and found that AI — or technology that senses the environment, comprehends what's happening and takes action — could increase productivity by up to 40 percent in 2035. The report also forecasts economic growth in the U.S. could increase from 2.6 percent to 4.6 percent over the same period with the adoption of AI technologies. Among the countries that stand to make the largest gains in productivity from AI in 2035 are Sweden, Finland, the U.S. and Japan.

Artificial intelligence will boost US productivity, says report

Billionaire investor George Soros has upped what so far has been a losing bet on the U.S. stock market, according to recent filings. The hedge fund manager and active supporter of progressive causes added bearish options plays to his portfolio during the first quarter.

George Soros has added to his losing bets against the stock market

The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF has soared 67 percent in the past 52 weeks, a growth rate that Niles says is unsustainable. "If you look at semiconductors — which is where I have the real problem — the semiconductor index in 2016 was up 37 percent. The revenue growth was 2 percent. This year, the semiconductor index is up 18 percent, and the revenue growth is maybe 5 percent," said Niles. The three best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last year are all semiconductor companies. Shares of NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devices and Micron are all up nearly 200% or more in that period.

A correction is long overdue, tech investor Dan Niles says

His leading indicator: A tightening labor market that is driving up wages. "This economy is really based on consumption, so it puts more money in the hands of consumers," he said, thus giving a boost to U.S. companies selling products and services. Zidle referred to Commerce Department data showing the number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs, relative to the amount of people getting fired. "More and more people are quitting their jobs right now," he observed. "In the law of large numbers, the only reason why people quit their jobs in big numbers is because they have something better lined up and something that pays more." The scenario could help drive inflation to three to four percent, a number that's considered a sweet spot for companies' profits, explains Zidle. "If we do start to see this inflation, I think it's very good for cyclicals because they have pricing powers — your energy, materials, tech, financials, small companies. I think it's very, very good for them," he said.

Inflation could be the market's biggest upside surprise of the year

On Thursday morning, Alibaba reported March quarter (fiscal fourth quarter) revenue of RMB38.6 billion (up 60%, equal to $5.61 billion) and adjusted EPS of RMB4.35 (up 45%, equal to $0.63). The former beat a $5.24 billion consensus analyst estimate, but the latter missed a $0.65 consensus. Alibaba also announced a new $6 billion stock buyback authorization, after having repurchased $2 billion worth of shares (mostly from top investor SoftBank) in fiscal 2017. Shares finished fractionally up on Thursday, after having risen 37% in 2017 going into earnings.

Alibaba and Tencent Are China's FANG Stocks - TheStreet

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#4
Cramer found that some of the market's few winners are tied to Chinese infrastructure projects. Chinese excavator sales were up by triple digits in April, and U.S. construction giants Caterpillar and Cummins are seeing their orders rise. "All I can say is thank heavens for Communist China. We need a major infrastructure program, but our Republican-controlled Congress hates spending money, so our companies will just have to piggyback off the Chinese," Cramer said.

Cramer Remix: Why China may have just beaten Washington

On Wednesday morning, meanwhile, Tencent reported first quarter revenue of RMB49.6 billion (up 55%, equal to $7.2 billion) and net income of RMB14.5 billion (up 58% and equal to $2.1 billion), beating consensus estimates of RMB46.4 billion ($6.7 billion) and RMB13 billion ($1.9 billion), respectively. Shares rose 1.6% overnight in Hong Kong, and are now up 39% on the year. It should be noted that for both companies, dollar-based revenue and earnings growth isn't quite as strong as yuan-based growth due to forex swings. The dollar has gained about 6% on the yuan over the last 12 months. Alibaba's steadily-improving ability to monetize transactions on its massive Taobao and Tmall Chinese marketplaces via revenue streams such as ads, commissions and shipping fees remains a major growth driver.

Alibaba and Tencent Are China's FANG Stocks - TheStreet

IN 2015 Anne Case and Angus Deaton, economists from Princeton University, revealed that white, middle-aged Americans with limited education were dying in greater numbers, while people of other ethnic groups and in other countries were living longer.  But it is not only Americans at the tail end of the baby boom who are dying too soon. Young adults in America die at far higher rates than in other developed countries. And, as with older Americans, progress against young mortality in America over the past two decades has been slow. In 1999, the death rate for those aged between 20 and 24 was 91 per 100,000. In 2015, the latest figures show, that had barely declined to 89 per 100,000.

American exceptionalism: Why too many Americans are dying young | The Economist

Coffee could have a big upside. A recent Stanford University School of Medicine study in Nature Medicine is the latest to perk up the worried coffee drinker. It reported that caffeine consumption counters the chronic inflammation responsible for more than 90% of many cardiovascular and other age-related diseases such as cancer, Alzheimer’s and other dementias. Put more simply, coffee can slow down a widespread cause of human aging. It’s been known that coffee drinkers live longer than abstainers, but it wasn’t altogether clear why.

Drinking coffee may help you live longer, research shows - MarketWatch

When it comes to living a long life, Italy is the place to be. The high-heeled boot surrounded by five seas is ranked the healthiest country on Earth in the Bloomberg Global Health Index of 163 countries. A baby born in Italy can expect to live to be an octogenarian. But 2,800 miles south in Sierra Leone, the average newborn will die by 52. While Italy is among the most developed countries, growth has stagnated for decades, almost 40 percent of its youngsters are out of jobs and it’s saddled with one of the world’s highest debt loads relative to the size of its economy. Yet Italians are in way better shape than Americans, Canadians and Brits, who all suffer from higher blood pressure and cholesterol and poorer mental health.

Italy is the world's healthiest country despite ongoing economic strife | The Independent

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