Stabilizing?

[Cann]

Are we now clear? The share price has veered up from the Q3 earnings, does it mean the shorts are covering, Amazon problems behind us?

[baff]

Clear.. as far as the fall has stopped and there's not much Amazon business left to lose. AAOI seem to be doing decently despite the Amazon failure. I don't dare count on rapid growth like during Q1 & Q2 but I do hope some growth will resume. I keep my shares thinking AAOI will eventually do well but I'm less bullish nowadays. Even with slower growth from here the stock is valued ridiculously low. My guess is the shorts don't have a case anymore but they continue to spread FUD so they can cover their rather large positions. I'm certainly not helping them take profits. I'm not selling.

[admin]

What I especially liked was their organizational nimbleness. Sales to their biggest customer crashed, yet there is hardly a blip in gross margins and while inventories went up a bit, things will be evened out in a quarter or two.

[admin]

Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI) is up 3.4% in postmarket trade after an SEC form 4 shows director Alan Moore boosting his holdings by some 22,400 shares. At a price of $44.6003, the transaction from yesterday comes to just shy of a million-dollar purchase. The move leaves him with a holding of 246,178 (about 1.3% of total).

Applied Opto +3.4% as director buys $1M in shares - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) | Seeking Alpha

Even if management hasn't excelled at forecasting, at the minimum it's a sign that execs are seeing value here..

[admin]

Khorsand at it again..

Fiber-optic component vendor Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is still struggling, according to a note today from BWS Financial’s Hamed Khorsdan, who has a Sell rating on the maker of data center and telecom parts. Khorsand had written over the summer that the company’s business in transceivers for 40-gigabit transmission was “eroding,” leaving the company in a difficult spot. CFO Stefan Murray rebutted what he called factual errors by Khorsand at the time. Then in early August, Applied shares plunged as the company forecast results well below expectations, which Khorsand took as vindication. Khorsand returned again with dire words in mid-October, when Applied warned it would miss that already disappointing forecast.

Applied’s next quarterly report, fiscal Q4, is not expected until late February. But Khorsand is back with more warnings today, writing that as the quarter draws to a close — Q4 ends this month — "it does not look like there would be much of a turnaround in the slumping revenue Applied Optoelectronics has been reporting lately." Re-iterating a $25 price target on Applied stock, Khorsand writes the company is dealing with challenges at both Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN), though he doesn’t cite any sources for the assertion:

AAOI continues to face market share erosion at Facebook and annual price negotiations could push prices lower than initially expected. Additionally, we believe AAOI faces further challenges with Amazon.com. The combination of losing share at FB and AMZN making the seasonal decision to limit its purchasing activity in the fourth quarter sets up what could end up be a disappointing fourth quarter performance by AAOI.

Applied shares today are up $1.68, or 4.5%, at $40.95..

Applied Opto Continues to Face Challenges at Amazon, Facebook, Says BWS - Barron's

[admin]

Shares of fiber-optic component maker Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) are up $2.54, or almost 10%, at $27.97, after Rosenblatt Securities’ Jun Zhang this morning wrote that the company will see a rebound this quarter as it gains share of component sales at Facebook (FB) and Amazon.com (AMZN). Applied seems to be winning back share from Chinese competitor Zhongji Innolight (300308.China), and its “confidence” is building as a result, he argues: Over the past month we have observed many interesting changes in the optical market. Our research suggests that Applied Optoelectronics has gained share at Facebook versus Innolight. We believe that AAOI could grow its share around CWDM4 from what we estimate is currently around 10% to 30-35%, in line with Intel. We believe that AAOI is seeing improved traction due to its aggressive pricing and ongoing quality issues at Innolight. Given these factors, we believe AAOI could take share at Amazon as well as H3C in Q2. As AAOI’s confidence grows, we would look for the company to grow its manufacturing capacity in order to fulfill rush orders. Based on this research, we believe AAOI could see a strong sequential rebound in Q2, coming off what we believe will be a weak Q1. Zhang also thinks that Lumentum Holdings (LITE) and Finisar (FNSR) could gain some share as they offer their own versions of so-called CWDM4 fiber-optic parts. Luemntum shares are up $2.58, or 4%, at $63.33, while shares of Finisar are up 26 cents, or 1.7%, at $16.06.

Applied Opto Surges: Set for Rebound, Says Rosenblatt - Barron's