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Decreased comfort level
#51
cheers guys, just entered my position. Looking forward to the ER next week.
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#52
(05-03-2019, 05:42 AM)throwaway1 Wrote: cheers guys, just entered my position. Looking forward to the ER next week.

My man.  Smart move.  I wan't to thank everyone who posts on here.  A lot of good reading and helpful to DD.  Admin you have weathered the storm of hate at you pretty well and I appreciate your candor.  If someone has legitimate concerns I wan't to hear them, this journey won't be all roses I need to see what can cause hiccups along the way.  Long and strong and looking forward to Tuesday.
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#53
(05-03-2019, 10:23 PM)Mahonee Wrote:
(05-03-2019, 05:42 AM)throwaway1 Wrote: cheers guys, just entered my position. Looking forward to the ER next week.

My man.  Smart move.  I wan't to thank everyone who posts on here.  A lot of good reading and helpful to DD.  Admin you have weathered the storm of hate at you pretty well and I appreciate your candor.  If someone has legitimate concerns I wan't to hear them, this journey won't be all roses I need to see what can cause hiccups along the way.  Long and strong and looking forward to Tuesday.

Thanks Mahonee, appreciated. I don't claim to be always right but I call it as I see it, and I think in investing one must be brutally honest and take contrarian information seriously.
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#54
(05-03-2019, 05:42 AM)throwaway1 Wrote: cheers guys, just entered my position. Looking forward to the ER next week.

Good luck throwaway, I think it will work out.
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#55
While our comfort level decreased, a month or so ago, our concerns have considerably lessened. They're not entirely gone, but the company has such an overkill of backlog that most of it has to be dud for the company not to meet its revenue guidance this year. 

That possibility seems much less now that the famous $50M backlog PR containing customer names looks not dodgy, contrary to what the Oil & Gas Bulletin trader argued. As it turns out (and we should have checked that, mea culpa) ACN Europe alone could very well be responsible for that $50M backlog, despite the fact that the other companies named in that PR don't look capable of generating anywhere near multi-million dollar revenue (hence they seemed dodgy).

So that PR looks solid and hence we think it's much less likely the company will run out of backlog anytime soon.

There could very well be dodgy backlog, but we think it isn't likely this is such a serious problems as to affect revenue growth anytime soon, especially given the fact that backlog itself keeps growing, and in Q4 existing customers more than doubled their orders.

So our comfort level, while not at 100% (it rarely is) has increased again (for a larger explanation, see here).
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#56
What a joke. You do know SHU is being mocked all over the SA comments and other msg boards, right?
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#57
(05-07-2019, 09:16 AM)philipcarl3 Wrote: What a joke. You do know SHU is being mocked all over the SA comments and other msg boards, right?

Actually, the joke is on those who had no concerns whatsoever, simply consider the facts:

1) The Oil & Gas Traders Bulletin (OGTB) publishes an article with a number of serious accusations, which were dealt with by longs with the usual combination of derision and accusations.

2) Crucial in these OGTB accusations is that he unearthed a whole PR announcing companies which were supposedly responsible for $50M of backlog. What set this PR apart is that the companies were actually named, and according to OGTB these were all dodgy. 

3) For weeks, this claim went completely unopposed, we seem to have been the only longs who took it seriously, simply because if that PR is indeed dodgy, then numerous others can be dodgy as well and that has potentially very serious implications. We didn't want to find out the hard way so we cut the SHU position in half.

4) It's only quite recent that one person (called MovingSphere) took on the claim, and showed that one of the companies mentioned in that PR is large enough to be able to account for most, if not all of the $50M backlog. We agreed with him pretty soon.

5) Then, even more recently and here on this forum another poster (throwaway1) argued that another of the accusations from OGTB could be wrong as well, the $84M of 2019 backlog mentioned in the AVG presentation could include Artilium. We agreed with that possibility as well, that could be the case (apparently management is addressing the issue tomorrow), we don't know but it's possible, like throwaway suggested.

So basically our most urgent fears were actually reduced by two concrete posters, one offering new information, the other one making a useful suggestion. This is actually the reason we started this forum, together people know more. We are not always right and open to new info. We don't see any shame in that.

What we find alarming is that almost nobody (bar one) checked the info from the OGTB article, almost all longs (bar one) simply ignored or ridiculed it, without even checking. 

Mind you, we're as guilty of that as 99% of the longs, we assumed the OGTB info credible (indeed, all the other companies mentioned in that famous PR are distinctly dodgy, in now way can they account for anywhere near $50M in backlog) and we don't know OGTB as a BS artist. We should have checked.

But so should 99% of the longs who simply ignored it (or ridiculed, or ascribed dark motives to authors, rather than dealing with what they wrote, etc.)

It looks like it works this time, but we've seen that sort of cognitive dissonance lead to serious disasters. Simply wishing away potentially bad information might work a few times, until it doesn't.
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#58
What I enjoy most about reading your last post is knowing you don't know what I know (after exchanging multiple lengthy emails with Hal and IR in the last 3 weeks). I am NOT suggesting they told me anything material,  but......


See you tomorrow.
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#59
You seem to forget that we're still long Philip..

You know people in the company and form your opinions based on what they tell you. We know the work of Alex and the Oil & Gas Traders Bulletin from SA and had no reason to think they were not sincere. We both acted on what we assumed was credible info. In fact, we did that again when new info became available that lessened our worries. That's all.

Management didn't reply to us earlier, so perhaps you have a hotline. It seems you got some reassurances with which you are able to ignore any bad info, good for you! That works until you hit on a company with really dodgy management telling fairy-tales, seen that happening too, so we're not sure management is always the first place to get one's assurances. That works until it doesn't.

But it could very well work this time.
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#60
Just listened to the company’s CC and it’s like (What did they just say)? Talk about Advertising. I’ve only owned the stock since Feb 2019 but after this cheerleading parade of ???? It’s time to take some profit.
Selling half my position keeps me in the game (Just in case these guys are for real).

I hope we hit a home run with this company.
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