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Risk/reward
#1
We think the risk/reward that the stock offers is pretty good here. There is always downside possibility, but:
  • The stock traded at $5-$6 and only struggled because part of the DoD budget that covered two big orders got shifted away for building the wall with Mexico. Management still expects these orders to renew even if the share price hasn't fully recovered from this.
  • They hired a new sales person a while ago with extensive contacts in the DoD and he is working on 6-7 new orders, 3 of which are already in procurement. 
  • While we don't know how good the new product, Shield, is and how well it will sell, this business is in addition to their existing business.
  • In time, the company is likely to be listed to a proper exchange.
So part of the downside is already priced in, while little of the upside is, we quite like this situation.
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