'Probability of development ratings'

[Tree]

PNG LNG has 95% probability of completion and a 50% likelihood of expansion.  IOC with several costly Aussie projects have no rating.

Out in front

Wednesday, 8 August 2012 THE ExxonMobil-led PNG LNG project is leading the pack of Australasian LNG projects in terms of Wilson HTM’s “probability of development” ratings. The PNG LNG project plant site, courtesy Oil Search The PNG LNG trains 1 and 2 under construction. Courtesy Oil Search The existing two-train, 6.6 million tonnes per annum project scope is targeting first exports of LNG in 2014 and was given a 95% probability of development score by the middle market brokerage firm.  On the long-discussed possible third train expansion to lift capacity to 9.3MMtpa, Wilson gave it a 50% chance.  Second place went to the Origin Energy and ConocoPhilips-led APLNG project with a 90% probability of development score for both trains of the 9MMtpa venture targeting first exports in the second half of 2016.  The Santos-led 7.8MMtpa GLNG project, also based on Queensland’s Curtis Island off Gladstone but targeting first exports in the second half of 2015, was given a 90% score for the first train and an 80% score for the second.  The Woodside-led Browse LNG project in northern Western Australia was given a 40% probability of development rating. It’s targeting a total of 12MMtpa out of two trains with first LNG expected in the first half of 2017. The Pluto-2 expansion by Woodside in the state is targeting an additional 4.3MMtpa from one train with first exports in 2017. Wilson gave it a 30% probability of development score. It also gave 30% to the Woodside-led Sunrise LNG project in the Timor Sea, which is targeting 4MMtpa with first production expected in 2017. The Poseidon joint venture in the Browse Basin between ConocoPhillips and Karoon Gas is targeting 5MMtpa. While first LNG is far off in 2022, this project was given a 10% probability of development rating.  None of the other LNG projects in the Australia-Pacific were given a probability of development score at all. This includes Pluto-3, Bonaparte FLNG, Gorgon, Queensland Curtis LNG, Prelude FLNG, Wheatstone, Ichthys, Arrow LNG and the InterOil-led Gulf LNG project in PNG.  Wilson used its own research along with data from Wood Mackenzie for its “Australasian LNG project matrix” round up.

[ValueSleuth]

Not very venturous, giving a 95% chance of development to a project well along in the process of physical construction. So, there's a 5% chance the project will be cancelled at this point?

......and to completely leave out most of the potential projects?

Give me a break.

VS