Why IOC Longs Should Sleep Well

[tarulestheday]

It's pretty obvious that deals will be announced sooner than later and...

25% of the IOC float is still short with over 12 days to cover given the just under 700K daily shares average trading volume.

Lastly, every day this week the short volume exceeded 50% of the total volume as per finra/nasdaq:

Date	Symbol	Name	Sector	Industry	Short Volume	Long Volume	Total Volume	Short%
2012-08-30	IOC	InterOil Corporation	Basic Materials	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	109195	92589	201784	54
2012-08-29	IOC	InterOil Corporation	Basic Materials	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	132317	94356	226673	58
2012-08-28	IOC	InterOil Corporation	Basic Materials	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	128356	108021	236377	54
2012-08-27	IOC	InterOil Corporation	Basic Materials	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	121129	117456	238585	51

[admin]

Thanks for that reassurance, Tarules. With the political problems now seemingly out of the way, can't really see much of a problem, besides some Black Swan event.

[ValueSleuth]

TA,

Your volume statistics are missing most of the volume, rendering the short % statistics meaningless on an overall volume basis.

I'd place no stock in them.

VS

[tarulestheday]

TA, Your volume statistics are missing most of the volume, rendering the short % statistics meaningless on an overall volume basis. I'd place no stock in them. VS

NASDAQ/FINRA are the only stats available on short sales to my knowledge. They represent approx one-third of the total trading volume reported. That is a very good representative sample.

Most elections are called with a much smaller sample size than 33%.  Use or flush.

[Palm]

Agree TA, very representative and worth noting. Thanks for presenting the info. Helps understand what is going on. Interesting thing is that since Schwab did their solicitation shorts suddenly seem to have gained new life; was hard finding shares to short for quite a while.

[trans]

Palm, my conclusion is that TA's sample is a helpful indication of what is going on with short activity, but as VS says, we have to be aware that it can at times be unreliable. Most of the time, I believe it telegraphs meanful info. I also am concerned that the weekly option expirations may be a tool, using creative mechanics ( such as hedging), to loosen up shares for shorting. These are marketmakers that already have exemptions that the public is mostly not aware of, and they are not offering info on themselves and their advantages. Who is the major beneficiary of options? imo, the big firms engaged in marketmaking, and I believe any of them can apply to be a marketmaker, and receive the customary exemptions. I have very little trust for wall street. See where the political contributions go. My take is they go whereever they see their biggest advantage. Perhaps the major missing factor for the investing public in the past decade is the diminishing transparency that has been backed by the major wall street firms. Someday maybe, but I won't hold my breath. I see the front of the contribution lines occupied by these folks again. imo

[jft310]

Palm, my conclusion is that TA's sample is a helpful indication of what is going on with short activity, but as VS says, we have to be aware that it can at times be unreliable. Most of the time, I believe it telegraphs meanful info. I also am concerned that the weekly option expirations may be a tool, using creative mechanics ( such as hedging), to loosen up shares for shorting. These are marketmakers that already have exemptions that the public is mostly not aware of, and they are not offering info on themselves and their advantages. Who is the major beneficiary of options? imo, the big firms engaged in marketmaking, and I believe any of them can apply to be a marketmaker, and receive the customary exemptions. I have very little trust for wall street. See where the political contributions go. My take is they go whereever they see their biggest advantage. Perhaps the major missing factor for the investing public in the past decade is the diminishing transparency that has been backed by the major wall street firms. Someday maybe, but I won't hold my breath. I see the front of the contribution lines occupied by these folks again. imo

I think that most don't know that market makers can naked short under the rules we now have. I believe that 6 million shares short in IOC are the market makers hedging different bets on IOC. So using the 8.5 million short number for a  short squeeze is not on target.