Today's price action

[admin]

Logically there are only a few possible explanations (apart from the possibility that it's rather random if it reverses quickly)

1. There is bad news ahead not priced in yet
2. There are too few new longs due to a lack of conviction and coverage
3. This is exploited by the shorts

It's difficult to argue 1) Even a deal on disappointing terms would remove most uncertainty, provide funding for exploration and a path to monetization and booking of reserves, and still be likely better than the stock price metrics (less than 50cents/Mcf excluding B/T).

Most logical is that the longs who want to be in are already in. Not every long adds at every dip and I'm sure there are a number who are simply waiting for the dust to be settled before buying. This is a difficult stock for the newly, and half initiated, as there is quite a bit of dust, much of it thrown up by those with an agenda. Combined with parties that have an incentive to drive the price lower, this could very well explain it, but the day is still long.

[bertl05]

The Govt is going to pay for their "additional" 27.5%. Even if they only pay $1 ( too low I think all would say), and the other SD is at $2 (likely I think). Then the shares are too cheap already. I'm not worried. Its not fun, but Its very hard to come up with a scenario where the PPS could stay at $60 for long.

[admin]

Yes, exactly Bertl. And "entertain" the following thought experiment for a moment. Even if IOC would give away (that is, forced out, or "nationalized") of that 27.5% (probably more like 20% or so net to IOC), much of that gas and liquids are likely to be replenished with the next GLJ report. And we still would have a path to monetization.

And of course PNG isn't just going to "nationalize" that 27.5% for nothing, there is absolutely nothing to suggest it will do that. Oh yea, there was that short article on Valueinvestorsclub arguing exactly that. We already went down from $90 to $60 on that nonsense...