Bamboo Giant LNG Imports

[Tree]

 

 

 

 

Platts

China imported 1.32 million mt of LNG in October, up 54.9% from the same month last year, data released late Thursday by the General Administration of Customs showed.



The October LNG import volume was down 4.2% from September. 



Nevertheless, this still brings China's total LNG imports to 11.78 million mt this year, an increase of 25.2% from the 9.41 million mt China imported over the same 10-month period last year.



Australia was China's top LNG supplier in October exporting 388,662 mt, up 19.2% year on year and 49.7% month on month. 



Qatar supplied China's most expensive LNG in October, delivering 322,810 mt at an average price of $920.16/mt ($17.70/MMBtu). The price was a 0.4% decrease in price year on year and 6.2% less than the average price of $981.24/mt China paid in September.

China paid an average $459.01/mt ($8.83/MMBtu) for its October shipments, up 10.8% from the same month a year earlier, but 30.3% less from September.



In October China imported 1.44 million mt equivalent (2.26 Bcf/day) of pipeline gas from Central Asia, an increase of 41.2% year on year.



Turkmenistan imports rose 35% year on year to 1.38 million mt while Uzbekistan volumes during the month totaled 57,387 mt. 



China started importing gas from Uzbekistan in August.



This brings China's total natural gas imports to 2.76 million mt, an increase of 47.4% year on year. 



Discounting total gas exports of 182,808 mt and adding domestic production of 8.67 billion cubic meters, China's total apparent natural gas demand in October was 12.23 Bcm, up 19.7% year on year.



Over January to October, China's total gas imports were 24.43 million mt, up 37.5% year on year. Discounting gas exports of 2.43 Bcm and adding total domestic output of 86.67 Bcm, apparent demand over the period was 117.95 Bcm, up 14% year on year.

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CH is on it's way to becoming one of the largest LNG importers.

[TxPm]

Tree one thing I'd like to point out is where the most Expensive gas came from...Quatar. I have only briefly looked at the cost comparison charts for Quatar & E. Africa but I'd be willing to bet all these prolific finds in Africa are going to cost Asia a pretty penny which is why I still firmly believe before this thing is all said & done we see China try and make a significant play on PNG's LNG resources

[ArtM72]

I could not imagine anybody stressing enough the difference between $1.50/mcf (i.e. million BTU's) that the disenchanted suggest might be the "market price" for IOC gas and the $17.70 China paid, recalling the cost of LNG processing is around $5/mcf and IOC current valuation of $0.50/mc (and that only considering the E/A resource!).

The tough part is for IOC management to continue to deflect the slings and arrows of the shorts while they hold out and demand an appropriate price for the gas. When the story of this stock is written students will be astonished at the effectiveness of the naysayers.

[Libtardius Maximus]

I could not imagine anybody stressing enough the difference between $1.50/mcf (i.e. million BTU's) that the disenchanted suggest might be the "market price" for IOC gas and the $17.70 China paid, recalling the cost of LNG processing is around $5/mcf and IOC current valuation of $0.50/mc (and that only considering the E/A resource!). The tough part is for IOC management to continue to deflect the slings and arrows of the shorts while they hold out and demand an appropriate price for the gas. When the story of this stock is written students will be astonished at the effectiveness of the naysayers.

Naysayers and 23% of the shares held short Art. I've noticed over the years MS's Calio's disbelief as well, including his recent research note.

[bertl05]

"The tough part is for IOC management to continue to deflect the slings and arrows of the shorts while they hold out and demand an appropriate price for the gas. When the story of this stock is written students will be astonished at the effectiveness of the naysayers. "

Credibility is hard to come by, especially with a multi year smear campaign. A SD witha recognizable name and a highly thought of operator will help. All the twists and turns and fits and starts have not helped IOC build credibility with the large players , or even DPE and Petromin. My hope is that they culminate this long partner excersise soon and get the best deal they can and then move on to more drilling and monetizing more of T2.

The time has really come to deliver the goods...

[Libtardius Maximus]

"The tough part is for IOC management to continue to deflect the slings and arrows of the shorts while they hold out and demand an appropriate price for the gas. When the story of this stock is written students will be astonished at the effectiveness of the naysayers. " Credibility is hard to come by, especially with a multi year smear campaign. A SD witha recognizable name and a highly thought of operator will help. All the twists and turns and fits and starts have not helped IOC build credibility with the large players , or even DPE and Petromin. My hope is that they culminate this long partner excersise soon and get the best deal they can and then move on to more drilling and monetizing more of T2. The time has really come to deliver the goods...

I agree Bert, time to close this deal and chapter. It's my opinion that IOC has plenty of culpability for reaching this point in time, PNG government hasn't been exactly stable and wthout their fair share of blame either. Perhaps now with vote of confidence extended PNG can get their country into the 21st Century. What a golden opportunity they have in front of them.

[bertl05]

There is plenty of blame to go around for sure. The PNG Govt, maybe Shell, but IOC itself has to shoulder a portion of the blame for the current quandry they find themselves in. I am positive that if there were a SD offer at a very high price on EA, IOC would have hit it already. One of the bigger mistakes was not getting the PA changed and approved when the monetization plan changed, thats a monumental oversight for mgmt of a sophisicated company to make.

My hope is they make the best of this situation as it is, not how they wish it to be, or think it should be. The reality of the asset is only what someone will pay , not what you think they should pay. Its too late to try to "hold out" for a higher price. Its time to fish...enough cutting bait.

[TxPm]

Not that this is entirely on point but I think it's of some value here. When reading the case against SAC it's been said that nearly $700Mil was moved in 4 days specifically through dark pools as to not move or alert the market & that these trades were done only days before the stock moved. I'm not saying we are/aren't within days of a huge pps move but what I am saying is that when this thing does happen I expect it to be very quickly & you will see huge prices movements & could very easily see shorts turn into longs....be patient guys in my opinion we are almost there

[ArtM72]

I was watching some program or other last night and a remark was made that the Chinese success in African asset acquisition was their willingness to grease the palms of the "authorities". At the very least we have to recognize it is a crime for US companies to do so. I suspect, but do not know, that imposes constraints on IOC in their dealing with the Commonwealth country of PNG.

As far as I'm concerned people not appreciative of the difficulties IOC management have had to overcome in extracting appropriate value from their assets and efforts are welcome to sell all the shares they have. After all, the resources and efforts of managment must have established "fair value" in today's share price.

Maybe management hasn't done everything right, but they found a lot of gas and condensate at E/A and T2, have continued to develope the necessary infrastructure to extract that resource, operated a profitable refinery with stellar safety record and have been beset with a government in a country with a fundamentally tribal cultural heritage and among the most backword in the entire world. Women and children eating their dead until 1960 as a matter of respect, preventing the bodies from being consumed by worms if buried and maggots if not? Not that long ago.

I expect management's obtaining any secure deal in PNG with its politics and culture will be plenty to deserve my full and unqualified appreciation.

Yeah, it's a speculative stock. Place your bets, roll the dice, but don't bitch. Please don't hesitate to present negatives when there is good reason to believe there to be a valid reason to do so.

Good luck to all. I'm looking forward to waking up 12/4 and reading SHU posts.