Let's get the bidding war started

[sfiaes]

PRE offers $75 all stock or 3.5 PRE shares for each IOC share. That’s the equivalent of $3.75B.

Their share count goes up 59% to 470 million from current 295 million, so yes there will be significant EPS dilution. They more than make up for that with asset value. They would be buying E/A at .70 per mcf given 9.2T’s and getting their money back for Triceratops plus all the gas.

They significantly diversify their portfolio in an area we know they are interested in.

Their balance sheet remains healthy with plenty of free cash flow for exploration.

They are in a much better position to get a deal done

They buy an income stream for the next 40 years. A company defining acquisition

IOC becomes a large part of a bigger company. By taking stock, shareholders participate meaningfully in the future upside of their PNG assets.

Short covering alone takes the stock back to $90. Likely Shell or the Chinese would join the game.

[ebster123]

WHAT?!!!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!!!!!!  This is not a fire sale.

[sfiaes]

Hey, I'd love it if it went up all by itself, but at these prices I think the company is in play.

Quite frankly, there is every likelihood you would make more money with less volatility with PRE stock.

[tarulestheday]

WHAT?!!!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!!!!!!  This is not a fire sale.

Ebster, with all due respect, I think many IOC longs need to take a more objective view of the current situation. Until we see a partner and SD deal that proves otherwise, the street firmly believes that PNG has a loaded gun at IOC. Bids are under $1 according to multiple sources. $75 is now almost a 30% premium over current share price.

[trans]

Sfiaes, I wonder about that too. They may have deliberately driven IOC stock lower enough that many people are getting tired of the game. That could be a setup to make a lower offer for IOC . I don't think it can happen, but I can't rule out that happening. This is a world class nat gas property.

[ebster123]

Once it starts I do not believe Exxon, RDS or China will let PRE get the whole company for pennies on the dollar for E/A and T2. I have been very vocal that the management has poorly played cards however, I firmly believe a low ball bid will start the game and none of the big guys will quit until at least $250.

[TxPm]

Tarules, IF the bids are coming in at $1mcf this still means over a 100% premium from the pps today. Also I'd be interested to hear why such a price discrepancy btw this rumored price & PRE's price considering 1) today PNG is more stable then 9 months ago 2) e/A is the more proven asset 3) the outlook for Nat gas hasn't changed much since the PRE deal

[bertl05]

Take out talk is nice, but isnt there a fairly firm poison pill in place to prevent a $75 takeover? I haven't seen the wording of that, but I know there has been some posting about it in the past here. Anyone know the details of the PPill?

[Spartina]

Agree Tx these numbers make no sense, I'm wondering if final bids may be waiting for preliminary results from Ant 3, thoughts?

[ebster123]

If final bids are waiting for results from Ant 3 and O'Neill wants a selection BEFORE these drill results are in then I see a major major price dip before a rise. I would not be surprised to see $40's if this is the case.