The 5 types of Interoil Bidders.My opinion

[jft310]

This post tells the tale and many missed what it says.

[Tree]

This post tells the tale and many missed what it says.

21 mos. ago Phils said regardibg the EWC 3 mtpa JVOA, 'The world now knows what our deal is, what it takes to partner with us'

Question is  - at some point a SM will break from the pack and negotiate a deal to match EWC or a NOC, when is that point?  Is it now as Ant-3 is even more de-risked?

When 1 SM breaks to aggressively bid will another?  I say yes.

[sfiaes]

Yes to all three questions you asked or just the last one?

Another question: Is a signed PA needed before anyone bids?

[jft310]

We do know per the last CC that we have 2 SM's that are bidding. There is good reason to believe that we have at least one more SM bidder. Its not gonna take forever to sort through these bids and finalyze them. Therefore I conclude that by early to mid Feb we hear about a SM buyin offer for the 1st train. I think the losers will react strongly and the bids rise. At least one will offer to buy the entire company. I can't guage the companies response to sell it all but if the price were right it might happen. Most likely is a buy in by a SM and Mitsui put the value of E/A at $20 Billion. That was for the 7.6 mtpa plant and this project is smaller that of 3.8 mtpa.IOC will own 100% of this first train so that means 100% of $10 Billion is the value.Now how much will they buy?? Worst case Mitsui has their contract thats outstanding for $10 Billion. I tend to think we get a SM bid vs a Mitsui/JK partnership.But I don't get a vote. A SM accepted bid by IOC for a buy in spikes the price $50-100 a share. I am short puts and long calls in case this scenario actually comes to pass as I think it will. First calls I have bought in years. Bought today.

[johnwgrant]

JFT310: The question was asked by sfias above: "is a Signed PA needed before anyone bids?". That is the key question. Or to put it another way, what is the holdup ?!?! Some months back, we were told of bids that were indicative of "multiples" of the current share price. So, why has a successful bidder not been announced? I can only guess that the PNG gov't is somehow holding things up. If so, why? O'Neill is supposed to be "large and in charge". If so, why has the PA not been finalized by the deadline he himself set out.

Frustrated but hopeful,

John

[Tree]

JFT310: The question was asked by sfias above: "is a Signed PA needed before anyone bids?". That is the key question. Or to put it another way, what is the holdup ?!?! Some months back, we were told of bids that were indicative of "multiples" of the current share price. So, why has a successful bidder not been announced? I can only guess that the PNG gov't is somehow holding things up. If so, why? O'Neill is supposed to be "large and in charge". If so, why has the PA not been finalized by the deadline he himself set out. Frustrated but hopeful, John

"is a Signed PA needed before anyone bids?"  -  NO.  That was made patently clear in the last CC.

A short-list of 6 bidder takes a bit to weed through.  The PNG Gov't, by all reports, is supportive and aiding in the SD process.  No need to borrow trouble.

[Tree]

[quote='johnwgrant' pid='15589' dateline='1357258156'] JFT310: The question was asked by sfias above: "is a Signed PA needed before anyone bids?". That is the key question. Or to put it another way, what is the holdup ?!?! Some months back, we were told of bids that were indicative of "multiples" of the current share price. So, why has a successful bidder not been announced? I can only guess that the PNG gov't is somehow holding things up. If so, why? O'Neill is supposed to be "large and in charge". If so, why has the PA not been finalized by the deadline he himself set out. Frustrated but hopeful, John

"is a Signed PA needed before anyone bids?"  -  NO.  That was made patently clear in the last CC.

A short-list of 6 bidder takes a bit to weed through.  The PNG Gov't, by all reports, is supportive and aiding in the SD process.  No need to borrow trouble.

[/quote

Just so all understand - IOC can accept bids, choose a winner  and name the SD partner anytime after Nov. 15 , 2012, the day NEC granted approval for 3.8 Mtpa start-up minimum, in the Gulf so long as an acceptable LNG operator is in scheme.  Minimum 6 qualified bidders were claimed in the process back then.  Don't fret about a suitable LNG operator, those are easily hired.

[TxPm]

"On November 15, 2012, InterOil was notified that the National Executive Council (NEC) of Papua New Guinea had approved a proposal to build a 3.8 million tonnes per annum LNG plant in the Gulf Province of Papua New Guinea. The approval received from the NEC is in line with the InterOil Corp. News Release Page 2 of 3 proposals from our potential LNG partners. Since then, InterOil has been working with the PNG Government to complete a modified LNG project agreement and to secure an internationally recognized operator of the proposed facilities, consistent with the NEC approval. InterOil expects that these actions will allow it to promptly complete the partnering process."

Two things. First the quote above tells me that the PA & SD are being completed at the same time and one is not preventing the other as Tree mentioned above. The one question I do have is this document mentioned "page two of three" can someone point me to the document they are referencing

"The approval received from the NEC is in line with the InterOil Corp. News Release Page 2 of 3 proposals from our potential LNG partners"

[sfiaes]

From the press release:

"...InterOil has been working with the PNG Government to complete a modified LNG project agreement and to secure an internationally recognized operator of the proposed facilities, consistent with the NEC approval. InterOil expects that these actions will allow it to promptly complete the partnering process."

From Tree:

"Just so all understand - IOC can accept bids, choose a winner and name the SD partner anytime after Nov. 15 , 2012, the day NEC granted approval for 3.8 Mtpa start-up minimum, in the Gulf so long as an acceptable LNG operator is in scheme. Minimum 6 qualified bidders were claimed in the process back then. Don't fret about a suitable LNG operator, those are easily hired."

These statements are not inconsistent.

What is the hold up?

How many of the six bidders are "suitable" to the government?

I think Bert, on another thread, may very well be accurate that there are differences between IOC and the government on the wording of the PA and hence the players involved.

[Tree]

"On November 15, 2012, InterOil was notified that the National Executive Council (NEC) of Papua New Guinea had approved a proposal to build a 3.8 million tonnes per annum LNG plant in the Gulf Province of Papua New Guinea. The approval received from the NEC is in line with the InterOil Corp. News Release Page 2 of 3 proposals from our potential LNG partners. Since then, InterOil has been working with the PNG Government to complete a modified LNG project agreement and to secure an internationally recognized operator of the proposed facilities, consistent with the NEC approval. InterOil expects that these actions will allow it to promptly complete the partnering process." Two things. First the quote above tells me that the PA & SD are being completed at the same time and one is not preventing the other as Tree mentioned above. The one question I do have is this document mentioned "page two of three" can someone point me to the document they are referencing "The approval received from the NEC is in line with the InterOil Corp. News Release Page 2 of 3 proposals from our potential LNG partners"

Tx,

Studied that earlier today.  Me thinks it is page 2 of the Nov. 16th IOC press release on their website.  Page 2 is the forwrd looking statements and lays out scenarios.